MLB Playoffs Odds: League Championship Series October 17th
MLB Playoffs Odds: League Championship Series October 17th
The MLB playoffs are delivering drama on both coasts as the race to the World Series intensifies. In the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their dominant title defense, taking a commanding lead over the Milwaukee Brewers behind elite pitching and consistent run production.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays are locked in a tense ALCS deadlock, with both teams trading blows to set up a decisive Game 5 showdown at T-Mobile Park.
With premium matchups across the board, bettors have no shortage of value plays on the latest MLB playoffs odds and MLB playoffs lines. From Shohei Ohtani’s push to close out Milwaukee at Dodger Stadium to Bryce Miller’s bid to outduel Kevin Gausman in Seattle, these games will shape the next stage of the postseason.
Below, we break down both series in detail, highlighting the key numbers, player trends, and MLB playoffs betting insights you need before placing your wagers heading into a critical weekend of playoff baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 4
The National League Championship Series continues Friday night with Game 4 between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles holds a commanding 3-0 lead and is one win away from returning to the World Series for the second straight year and the third time in the last four seasons. The Dodgers are 8-1 in the postseason, while Milwaukee sits at 3-5 after dropping three straight.
First pitch is scheduled for 8:38 PM EST, and the latest MLB Odds from BUSR list Los Angeles as a strong favorite with the total set at 8 runs. With Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Dodgers and the Brewers still uncertain about their starting rotation, the matchup leans heavily toward the defending champions. Below, we break down each side and provide a data-driven MLBplayoffs betting recommendation ahead of this crucial elimination game in the MLB playoffs.
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee enters Game 4 struggling to find any offensive rhythm. Through three NLCS games, the Brewers have scored a total of three runs, averaging only one per contest. They have recorded nine hits across those games while striking out 29 times. The offensive inefficiency has left them with their backs against the wall and few answers heading into Friday night.
To make matters worse, outfielder Jackson Chourio exited Game 3 in the seventh inning after appearing to aggravate a hamstring injury, leaving his status for Game 4 uncertain. Chourio has been Milwaukee’s best hitter this postseason, batting .320 with eight RBIs. His absence or limited mobility would remove the team’s lone consistent source of production. William Contreras is hitting .222 with three extra-base hits, three RBIs, and five runs scored, while Christian Yelich has five singles and four walks but no extra-base hits.
As a group, Milwaukee’s offense has been stagnant throughout the playoffs. Across eight games, they’re hitting .199 with 25 total runs, 18 extra-base hits, and five stolen bases. They’ve drawn 25 walks but have also struck out 63 times. The power has been nearly absent, and without sustained rallies, run creation has been minimal.
On the pitching side, Milwaukee’s overall staff has kept them in games, but lack of run support has made every mistake costly. Through three games of the NLCS, they hold a 3.12 ERA. For the postseason overall, their pitching staff has a 3.26 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .216 opponent batting average. They’ve struck out 73 batters while issuing 33 walks and allowing 12 home runs.
The bullpen has carried most of the load. Milwaukee’s relievers own a 1.65 ERA across 49 innings, while the starters, largely a mix of Freddy Peralta and openers, are 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA. Given the usage this week, Jose Quintana is the most likely option to handle bulk innings in Game 4 after Jacob Misiorowski pitched Thursday and Quinn Priester threw four innings on Monday.
José Quintana is expected to take on bulk duty after pitching just once this postseason, eight days ago. In that appearance, he threw three scoreless innings as the follower in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cubs. During the regular season, Quintana went 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers. He also has a strong historical record versus Los Angeles, going 4-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 15 career appearances.
This season, opponents have hit .241 against Quintana with 18 home runs and 50 walks. His command profile and ability to limit hard contact could be key in keeping the game within reach early. However, given the Dodgers’ balance and power depth, any early traffic could turn into quick damage.
Milwaukee’s postseason story has been defined by its inability to generate offense. The Brewers have scored three runs or fewer in six straight games and have failed to exceed four in any playoff matchup this year. Their margin for error is microscopic, and it would take a near-flawless performance on the mound to extend the series.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has looked every bit like a defending champion. The Dodgers have won four straight games and are now one win away from clinching another trip to the World Series. They’ve allowed only one run in each of their last four contests, including Thursday night’s 3-1 victory at home to go up 3-0 in the NLCS.
Across the series, Los Angeles has scored 10 runs while hitting .242, showing a balanced but efficient approach. In nine total postseason games, the Dodgers are hitting .254 with 29 extra-base hits and 10 home runs. They’ve struck out 83 times and walked 33, producing enough situational hitting to consistently capitalize on mistakes.
Mookie Betts doubled and drove in a run in Game 3, extending his postseason hit streak to six of nine games. Tommy Edman added an RBI and continues to be a steady performer with a .290 postseason batting average. Shohei Ohtani sparked the offense early with a triple in the first inning, his first extra-base hit since recording two home runs in Game 1 of the Wild Card round.
Pitching has been the backbone of Los Angeles’ postseason dominance. In this series, the Dodgers have allowed just three runs over three games. Through nine playoff contests, their staff has a 2.60 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .174 opponent batting average. They’ve recorded 93 strikeouts and issued 34 walks.
Ohtani takes the ball for Game 4 after a season that saw him finish 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 142 strikeouts across the regular campaign. In his last five starts, including postseason outings, Ohtani has allowed only four earned runs over 25.2 innings while striking out 36 batters. He earned the win in Game 1 of the NLDS, allowing three runs on three hits and a walk while striking out nine.
The right-hander has lasted at least five innings in four of his last five starts and has punched out eight or more in three of those games. Opponents hit .227 against him during the regular season, and he’s surrendered only three home runs across that span. Though he’s never faced Milwaukee before, his ability to command the zone and generate swing-and-miss makes him a tough matchup for a Brewers lineup that’s been prone to strikeouts.
The Dodgers’ rotation has been elite this postseason, going 6-1 with a 1.54 ERA. Their bullpen has contributed with two wins, two saves, and a 5.11 ERA. Roki Sasaki continues to shine as a late-inning weapon, posting a 1.29 ERA over six playoff outings. The combined efficiency of Los Angeles’ arms has made run-scoring nearly impossible for opposing lineups.
Betting Recommendation
This series has been one-sided in every measurable way. The Dodgers have outscored Milwaukee 10-3 and out-hit them 23-9. The Brewers’ offensive approach has stalled completely, and the uncertainty in their pitching setup adds another layer of instability. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is riding peak momentum with its rotation locked in and bullpen well-rested.
Shohei Ohtani’s form gives the Dodgers a decisive edge. He’s been dominant over his last five starts and has held opponents below .230 across all situations. Milwaukee’s lineup, which has struck out 63 times in eight postseason games, faces a difficult challenge against one of baseball’s most complete pitchers.
Jose Quintana has the experience and career success against Los Angeles to keep things competitive early, but the lack of run support behind him limits the Brewers’ ceiling. If Milwaukee falls behind early again, its bullpen will be forced into heavy usage for the second straight night.
The MLB Odds at BUSR reflect a strong lean toward Los Angeles, with the Dodgers listed around -178 on the moneyline. For bettors, the run line offers a cleaner payout given the current trends. The under has also been a consistent winner throughout the series, hitting in all three games and in six of the last ten matchups between these teams.
Pick: Dodgers -204.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners ALCS Game 5
The American League Championship Series reaches a decisive point Friday night as the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays square off in Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. The series is tied 2-2 after both teams traded two-game sweeps on the road, creating a high-stakes showdown that will determine who takes control heading into the final stretch. First pitch is scheduled for 6:08 ET, and the latest MLB Odds from BUSR list this matchup as a near pick’em with both teams hovering around -105.
Toronto stormed back with explosive offensive performances in Games 3 and 4 to erase Seattle’s early advantage, while the Mariners now return home looking to recapture the form that gave them a 2-0 lead to open the series. With Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller facing off for the second time this round, bettors are bracing for another tightly contested matchup that could define the rest of the MLB playoffs.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto entered the postseason as the American League’s top seed after a 94-68 regular season. They handled the New York Yankees in four games during the ALDS and looked primed for a smooth run to the World Series before dropping the first two games of the ALCS at home. The Blue Jays flipped the narrative in Seattle, however, dominating Games 3 and 4 by a combined 21-6 margin to tie the series.
Game 4 showcased Toronto’s offensive ceiling. The lineup exploded for eight runs on 11 hits, marking their second straight game scoring eight or more. Andres Gimenez was the standout performer, going 2-for-3 with a home run and four RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continued his power surge, hitting his fifth postseason homer as the Blue Jays’ offense found its rhythm again.
Toronto’s pitching complemented the outburst, led by veteran Max Scherzer, who delivered 5.2 innings of two-run ball to earn the Game 4 win. The Blue Jays’ staff has regained its footing after a shaky start to the series, tightening command and limiting big innings from Seattle. Heading into Game 5, they will turn back to Kevin Gausman, who took the loss in Game 1 despite a strong outing.
Kevin Gausman’s consistency throughout the postseason has been crucial for Toronto. He went 10-11 during the regular season with a 3.59 ERA (22nd in MLB) and a 1.06 WHIP (11th), ranking among the league’s more efficient arms in terms of command and strikeout control. In the playoffs, Gausman is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP across 11.1 innings.
In his Game 1 start against Seattle, Gausman lasted 5.2 innings and allowed two earned runs on three hits and a walk, earning the loss in a 3-1 defeat. He limited hard contact throughout the outing and showed the same sharp breaking stuff that carried him all season. Historically, he has handled the Mariners well, holding their lineup to a collective slash line of .232/.279/.387 across 155 at-bats.
Toronto’s offensive resurgence could provide the run support Gausman lacked in Game 1. The Blue Jays’ lineup leads all playoff teams in on-base percentage and continues to deliver timely extra-base hits. Guerrero’s power, Gimenez’s contact ability, and Bo Bichette’s consistency, he has a hit in 15 straight games against AL West opponents, form the backbone of a lineup that has rediscovered its identity.
The Blue Jays also enter Game 5 with a mental edge from back-to-back wins, but their postseason success has depended on keeping the strikeouts in check and finding early offense. They have shown an ability to score in bunches once the top of the order settles in, an important factor against a disciplined Seattle pitching staff.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s playoff run has been defined by momentum swings. After sweeping both road games in Toronto to open the series, the Mariners dropped both at home and now face pressure to regain control in front of their fans. They’ve been outscored 21-6 across the last two games, but their pitching matchups and home-field record suggest a possible rebound.
Seattle finished the regular season 51-30 at T-Mobile Park, one of the best home marks in baseball. That advantage could prove key as the Mariners turn to Bryce Miller, the rookie right-hander who earned the win in Game 1. In that outing, Miller was dominant, allowing just one earned run on two hits and three walks over six innings, helping Seattle claim a 3-1 victory.
Bryce Miller enters Game 5 with growing confidence after two strong postseason starts. He’s 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in the playoffs, a massive improvement from his regular-season numbers (4-6, 5.68 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). His ability to command his fastball and induce soft contact has been key to his postseason success.
Miller’s track record against the Blue Jays has been stellar. Across 49 career at-bats, Toronto hitters have managed a slash line of .204/.291/.367 against him. That dominance aligns with the Mariners’ overall pitching strength, as their staff has posted a 3.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP during the postseason. The bullpen, anchored by high-leverage arms, ranks among the best in the MLB playoffs, first in WHIP (0.66) and first in opponent average (.093) in late-and-close situations.
Offensively, Seattle’s production has fallen off after an explosive start to the series. They won the first two games by scores of 3-1 and 10-3, but in Games 3 and 4, the bats went cold. In Game 4, the Mariners managed just five hits and two runs, with Josh Naylor’s solo home run in the second inning accounting for the only spark of early offense.
The Mariners have relied heavily on their middle-of-the-order bats, including Naylor and Jorge Polanco, while Cal Raleigh continues to provide key power. The lineup’s challenge will be generating contact early against Gausman’s splitter-heavy arsenal. If they can extend at-bats and push pitch counts, Seattle’s bullpen will be positioned to protect a narrow lead in the late innings.
Betting Recommendation
Game 5 presents a fascinating matchup for MLB Betting. Both starters excelled in Game 1, combining for only three earned runs allowed over 11.2 innings, and both teams have leaned heavily on their bullpen depth to navigate high-leverage moments. The latest MLB Lines from BUSR list Seattle around -105 on the moneyline, with the total set at 7.0.
Given the statistical balance and previous matchup results, the home-field advantage could make the difference. Seattle’s bullpen metrics in late-close situations are unmatched, and Miller’s command has proven effective against Toronto’s right-handed core. The Mariners have also been dominant at home, going 51-30 in the regular season and thriving in low-scoring contests.
Toronto’s offensive surge over the last two games is notable but may not sustain against the combination of Miller and Seattle’s bullpen depth. The Blue Jays have faced only average pitching the past two games, and the shift back to a well-rested Mariners staff in a controlled home environment should slow them down.
Seattle’s ability to bounce back behind Miller, coupled with their bullpen’s elite metrics, makes them the preferred side for Game 5. The Mariners have the defensive structure and late-game efficiency to retake the series lead.
The most reliable angle lies in the total. Game 1 between these starters ended 3-1, and both have shown the ability to limit extra-base hits and avoid high-traffic innings. With both bullpens ranked among the top in the postseason, run production should be limited once again. The under is supported by Gausman’s .232 opponent average against Seattle and the Mariners’ strong home metrics in tight contests.
Expect a tightly managed game centered on pitching and bullpen execution. Seattle’s command-heavy approach and home-field record provide the edge, while the under remains consistent with the statistical trends.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners -102 moneyline
Seattle reclaims control of the ALCS with a narrow home victory, capitalizing on elite bullpen work and efficient early offense. For bettors tracking MLB Odds and MLB Betting trends, the Mariners on the moneyline and the under on total runs present the strongest value on the MLB Lines for Friday night’s Game 5 matchup at T-Mobile Park.
The MLB Playoffs Odds Await You in the 2025 Divisional Series
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