(October 9th) MLB Playoffs Kick Off: Divisional Series Odds for Each Showdown
NL Divisional Series MLB Odds: Game 4, October 9th
Thursday’s MLB Playoffs slate features two massive National League Division Series matchups, each carrying major implications for the postseason bracket.
The Milwaukee Brewers look to finish off the Chicago Cubs and punch their ticket to the NLCS, while the Los Angeles Dodgers aim to close out the Philadelphia Phillies at home. Both games offer substantial betting value across the latest MLB Odds and MLB Lines, with elite pitching matchups and playoff-tested lineups fighting to stay alive.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction: Game 4 NLDS Betting Preview
It was an offensive outburst from the Philadelphia Phillies (1-2) on Wednesday night, as they rolled past the Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1) by a score of 8-2 to keep their season alive. The National League rivals return to Dodger Stadium for Game 4 on Thursday evening, and we’ve got everything covered with our Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction.
Below, we’ll recap each team’s road to the NLDS, analyze the pitching matchup, and provide MLB Betting recommendations for this critical showdown that begins at 6:08 p.m. ET from Los Angeles, California.
Phillies Bounce Back, Hammer Dodgers
The Philadelphia Phillies controlled the NL East throughout the 2025 season, finishing 96-66 and clinching the division by 13 games over the Mets. Their record earned them the No. 2 seed in the National League, which gave them a bye past the Wild Card round. The Phillies drew the defending World Series champion Dodgers in the NLDS but stumbled out of the gate, dropping the first two games at home (5-3, 4-3).
After a travel day to regroup, Philadelphia came alive in Game 3 with a decisive 8-2 victory to avoid elimination. Despite the uphill battle, they remain in the fight, needing two more wins to complete the comeback. According to the latest MLB Odds, they are +290 to win the series and +1000 to win the World Series.
In Wednesday’s game, the Phillies trailed 1-0 entering the fourth inning before Kyle Schwarber tied it with the first of his two home runs. From that point, the offense erupted, scoring seven unanswered runs. Trea Turner went 3-for-5 with two RBIs and a run scored, while J.T. Realmuto added a two-hit performance with a home run of his own. Ranger Suarez earned the win after 5.0 innings of one-run baseball in relief of Aaron Nola, who opened the game with 2.0 scoreless innings.
Philadelphia will turn to Cristopher Sanchez for the start in Thursday’s Game 4. The left-hander will be pitching on four days’ rest after appearing in Game 1, where he gave up two earned runs on four hits and two walks over 5.2 innings. While he took a no-decision in that 5-3 loss, Sanchez was excellent during the regular season, finishing 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA (fifth in MLB) and 1.06 WHIP (12th) across 32 starts and 202 innings. He also ranked seventh in the Majors with 212 strikeouts.
The key question for Sanchez will be whether the Dodgers can adjust to seeing him twice in less than a week. Los Angeles hit .244 with a .285 on-base percentage and .407 slugging percentage against him during the regular season, and familiarity could play a big role here.
The Phillies’ offense, meanwhile, enters Game 4 with renewed confidence. They’ve scored four or more runs in each game this series and are averaging 4.7 runs per game in the MLB Playoffs. With Schwarber and Turner leading the way and Bryce Harper lurking in the middle of the order, this is a lineup that can heat up quickly when momentum swings their way.
Dodgers Drop Game 3 at Home
The Los Angeles Dodgers entered the postseason as one of the betting favorites to win the World Series and have largely looked the part. After finishing the regular season at 104-58, they swept the Reds in the Wild Card round and took the first two games of the NLDS in Philadelphia.
Now, despite dropping Game 3, they still hold a 2-1 series lead and remain heavy favorites at -360 to advance to their eighth NLCS in the last 13 years. The Dodgers are listed at +200 to repeat as World Series champions.
Wednesday’s 8-2 loss was their first defeat since September 23rd, snapping a nine-game winning streak. The loss also ended a stretch in which they had won 13 of their previous 15 games overall. Offensively, Los Angeles managed eight hits but struggled to convert scoring opportunities, going 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and leaving eight runners on base.
Tommy Edman provided the only spark, hitting a solo home run in the third inning and adding an RBI single in the ninth. The Dodgers’ pitching staff had an uncharacteristically rough night. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took the loss after 4.0 innings of three-run ball, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out five.
Looking ahead to Game 4, the Dodgers will start Tyler Glasnow, who also appeared in relief in the series opener on Saturday. Glasnow tossed 1.2 scoreless innings in that outing, allowing two hits and two walks while recording a hold. The right-hander was solid in the regular season, going 4-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 18 starts (90.1 innings).
In his postseason career, Glasnow owns a 5.51 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 47.1 innings, numbers that reflect both his talent and occasional inconsistency. When his slider and four-seam fastball command are sharp, he can dominate any lineup, but he’s also been vulnerable to elevated pitch counts and long innings.
From a betting perspective, the Dodgers’ bullpen remains a concern. Through the 2025 MLB Playoffs, they rank 11th of 12 postseason teams with a 7.04 ERA. Manager Dave Roberts has leaned heavily on his starters and trusted Roki Sasaki in high-leverage moments, but depth beyond those arms has been shaky.
Even with those issues, Los Angeles has the advantage of returning to Dodger Stadium, where they went 52-29 during the regular season. The combination of home-field familiarity, elite top-end talent, and lineup depth gives them a strong opportunity to finish the series.
Betting Prediction
Despite Philadelphia’s explosive Game 3 performance, Los Angeles is in a favorable position to close out the series. The Dodgers have been dominant at home all year, and their record since late September speaks to their consistency. Facing Cristopher Sanchez for the second time in five days provides a built-in advantage for their offense, especially given that they’ve already seen most of his arsenal this series.
While Sanchez was outstanding in Game 1, his road ERA (3.02) was significantly higher than his home ERA (1.94), which could factor in at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have hit him well in the past, and this lineup, led by Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts, has a strong track record of adjusting quickly after a loss.
Expect Glasnow to give the Dodgers a solid start and the offense to rebound with timely hits, but Philadelphia’s offensive machine turned on, and Sanchez has a better recent track record than Glasnow. With the Dodgers’ bullpen being a huge part of this game, expect the Phillies to capitalize on that. The +115 MLB Odds for the Phillies offer great value, too.
This series has leaned toward high-scoring outcomes, with an average of 8.3 total runs per game. Both offenses feature top-tier talent, and each has proven capable of erupting at any moment. The Phillies are seeing the ball well after their Game 3 breakout, while the Dodgers should capitalize on facing Sanchez again on short rest.
Los Angeles hit .244/.285/.407 against Sanchez during the season, suggesting they’re likely to produce more this time around. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s lineup remains dangerous and will see plenty of fastballs from Glasnow, against whom they’ve posted a .246/.350/.391 slash line in 69 at-bats.
The shaky Dodgers bullpen adds another reason to lean toward the over. Given that both teams have been efficient at generating baserunners, Over 8 on the MLB Odds board is the smart play.
Pick: Phillies +135, Over 8 (-108)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction: Game 4 NLDS MLB Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers are one win away from returning to the National League Championship Series after taking a 2-1 series lead in the NLDS. Following a slip-up in Game 3, the Brewers now look to finish the job behind right-hander Freddy Peralta, who gets the start after an impressive outing in Game 1.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs will try to extend their season and force a decisive Game 5, turning to veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd in a must-win scenario at Wrigley Field.
First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET, and the latest MLB Odds from BUSR show the Brewers as slight favorites, with the total sitting at 8 runs. Both teams enter with strong bullpen performances and a history of competitive matchups, setting up another tense postseason showdown.
Brewers Looking to End the Series Here
The Milwaukee Brewers have been among the most productive teams in the MLB Playoffs. They rank third this postseason with a .841 team OPS and have averaged 10.3 runs per game, trailing only the Blue Jays and Dodgers. A patient approach has driven their consistent offensive pressure, as their .365 on-base percentage ranks second in the majors this postseason.
First baseman Andrew Vaughn has been one of the key contributors at the plate. In limited but impactful postseason action, he’s gone 2-for-7 with a home run, three RBIs, and three runs scored while maintaining a perfect 2:0 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brewers’ lineup has mixed timely hitting with power, producing runs throughout the order rather than relying on one star.
On the mound, Freddy Peralta remains the Brewers’ biggest asset heading into Game 4. He earned the win in Game 1 after throwing 5.2 innings of two-run baseball, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out nine. His advanced metrics highlight his dominance: he ranks in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate, 85th percentile in expected batting average, 84th percentile in strikeout rate, and 83rd percentile in whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
Peralta’s four-pitch arsenal (fastball, changeup, curveball, slider) has kept opposing hitters off balance, with his slider standing out as his best pitch. Opponents have batted .157 against it, with a .216 slugging percentage, no home runs, and 21 strikeouts. The right-hander has faced the Cubs five times between the regular season and playoffs, going 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA across 26.2 innings, allowing 10 runs on 16 hits while striking out 31.
Milwaukee’s pitching staff as a whole has been sharp, posting a 3.46 team ERA through the first three games of the NLDS. Their bullpen has been even more dominant, leading all postseason teams with an incredible 0.50 reliever ERA, giving manager Craig Counsell the flexibility to match up freely in late innings.
However, the Brewers have been forced to work around several injuries, including Brandon Woodruff (lat), Jose Quintana (calf), Shelby Miller (elbow), and Jordan Montgomery (elbow). Despite those losses, depth and versatility have carried them through the postseason.
With Peralta in peak form and their bats performing at a high level, the Brewers have an ideal opportunity to close out the series and secure some rest before the NLCS.
Cubs Fighting to Force a Game 5
The Chicago Cubs managed to stay alive with a crucial Game 3 win, but they’ll need another complete performance to keep their season going. Offensively, the Cubs have been streaky throughout the MLB Playoffs. They rank sixth among postseason teams with a .670 OPS and are averaging only 2.67 runs per game.
The Cubs have shown flashes of power, sitting second overall with eight home runs in the playoffs, but consistency has been an issue. Pete Crow-Armstrong, one of their most dynamic young players, has struggled to make an impact, going 5-for-22 with three RBIs and no walks. His inability to reach base has limited Chicago’s ability to generate rallies from the bottom of the order.
Chicago will hand the ball to Matthew Boyd, who will try to rebound from a disastrous Game 1. In that outing, he lasted 0.2 innings and was tagged for six runs (two earned) on four hits, with one walk and one strikeout. His rough start forced the Cubs to lean heavily on their bullpen early, a scenario they hope to avoid in this elimination game.
Boyd’s underlying metrics, however, suggest he’s capable of better results. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate, 69th percentile in hard-hit rate, 69th percentile in average exit velocity, and 61st percentile in expected ERA.
His five-pitch mix: fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and sinker, has been effective when his command is sharp, with his changeup performing as his best offering. Hitters have posted a .205 average and .337 slugging percentage against it, though they’ve hit five home runs and struck out 46 times.
Boyd faced the Brewers three times between the regular season and playoffs, going 1-2 in 11 innings with a 9.00 ERA, allowing 15 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits and nine walks. To extend Chicago’s season, he’ll need a drastic turnaround.
Despite their struggles at the plate, the Cubs have quietly been solid on the mound this postseason. Their bullpen owns a 2.55 ERA, ranking fourth among playoff teams. Relievers have been able to contain late-game damage and keep games within reach, an encouraging sign heading into another elimination scenario.
The Cubs’ injury list remains significant, with Cade Horton (ribs), Owen Caissie (concussion), Ryan Braiser (groin), Miguel Amaya (ankle), and Justin Steele (elbow) all sidelined. Their depth has been tested, but veteran leadership from players like Dansby Swanson and Kyle Tucker keeps the clubhouse focused.
For Chicago to survive, their offense must capitalize on any early mistakes from Peralta and force Counsell to dig into his bullpen earlier than planned.
Betting Prediction
The Brewers have controlled the pace of this series and remain the better-balanced team on both sides of the ball. Freddy Peralta’s command, strikeout ability, and track record against Chicago give Milwaukee a clear edge on the mound. Meanwhile, Matthew Boyd’s Game 1 struggles and his season-long inconsistency against Milwaukee make it difficult to back the Cubs in this spot.
Statistically, the difference in pitching depth is stark. The Brewers’ 3.46 team ERA in the NLDS and 0.50 bullpen ERA showcase their dominance, while the Cubs have labored with a 5.40 team ERA in the series. Milwaukee’s lineup has consistently pressured opposing pitchers, and with Peralta capable of working deep into games, they should maintain control throughout.
At −119 on the MLB Lines, the Brewers are the sharper side for bettors seeking value on the moneyline. Expect Milwaukee to close the series and advance to the NLCS with momentum on their side.
Both teams have shown that pitching and bullpen execution can keep games tight, even when lineups appear dangerous on paper. In Game 3, the clubs combined to go 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position, leaving 14 men on base. With both bullpens in strong form, offensive efficiency may again be limited.
Milwaukee’s relievers have been dominant, while Chicago’s pen ranks among the top four in the MLB Playoffs. Those trends point toward another low-scoring contest, particularly with Peralta likely to record high strikeout totals and limit hard contact.
The UNDER remains the preferred betting play on the MLB Odds board, supported by consistent pitching performance and situational execution that favors run prevention.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -119, Total: Under 7.
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