CLOSE PRIMARY RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND DESANTIS IN FLORIDA
TALLAHASSEE, FL – Former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have been the equivalent to Gonzaga and Baylor in terms of betting odds for the 2024 Republican nomination. The BUSR/Susquehanna Polling and Research survey of registered Florida Republicans only confirms their statuses as the co-favorites for the 2024 Republican nomination. Our poll finds Trump leading DeSantis 43%-34% in a prospective 2024 Republican presidential primary matchup in the Sunshine State.
This poll also finds President Joe Biden with an approval-disapproval rating of 46%-42% among registered Florida voters. Biden leads Trump by a 50%-42% margin and DeSantis by a 49%-47% margin in hypothetical 2024 presidential general election matchups in Florida. Trump defeated Biden 51%-48% in the 2020 general election in Florida. The caveat to the general election data is that this poll was conducted before front-page news broke about the American military withdrawal in Afghanistan.
This poll of 700 Florida registered voters was conducted by telephone with live agents from August 4, 2021 to August 10, 2021. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.7 percentage points. BUSR paid for the costs of this poll and commissioned the live-caller survey from Susquehanna Polling and Research. 280 registered Republicans were surveyed for the portion of the poll that asked for preferences in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
2024 Florida Republican Primary
Florida was pivotal to Trump’s victory in the 2016 Republican primary and he leads a prospective 2024 field in his adopted state with 43%. DeSantis is not far behind at 34%. Utah Senator Mitt Romney is a distant third at 5%. Florida Senator Marco Rubio only receives support from 3% of Republicans in his home state.
|Donald Trump Sr.||43%|
Jim Lee, President of Susquehanna Polling and Research, believes that the biggest takeaway from the primary poll is that “if you add up the ‘other than Trump’ vote, it totals 48% between 6 candidates…So basically there are more Republicans voting for someone ‘other than’ Trump, than voting FOR Trump. While Trump leads the field, he still falls short of getting 51% of the vote, and it seems likely that support for other non-Trump candidates would likely coalesce around whoever ends up being the most formidable anti-Trump candidate in the race.”
Alex Chan conducted BUSR’s previous polling of elections in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nebraska’s Second Congressional District and he actually considered the poll as a bullish indicator for Trump’s 2024 prospects. “It was a huge red flag for Elizabeth Warren’s presidential hopes when she trailed Joe Biden in early polling in her home state of Massachusetts. DeSantis trailing in a state where most Republicans view him as the second-coming is a bearish sign for his ability to compete with Trump in states other than Florida.”
2024 General Election
Biden’s approval/disapproval rating of 46%/42% stems from the support he receives from independents and surprisingly many Republicans.
|Strongly Approve/Somewhat Approve||30%||63%||47%|
|Strongly Disapprove/Somewhat Disapprove||58%||27%||37%|
However, the intensity of the opposition to Biden is higher than intensity of his support. Lee noted that “more people strongly disapprove of the President’s job performance (38%) than strongly approve (32%) – which shows how precarious the President’s support really is.”
This poll did show that Biden held an advantage over his two most likely opponents in 2024, at least before the fallout over his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, in a state he failed to win in 2020. While Biden led Trump outside of the margin of error, Biden and DeSantis were effectively even statistically.
One of the biggest reasons for why DeSantis performs better than Trump in the matchup with Biden is that DeSantis leads Biden among non-Cuban Hispanics 50%-47% while Biden leads Trump 59%-32% among this same demographic. While some polling has shown Biden’s standing to have regressed nationally and in swing states following recent events overseas, Lee views this poll as a warning for Trump. “The fact that Biden leads former President Trump 50:42 in a hypothetical rematch is very telling, and an 8-point lead this early on has to be a shock to the Trump team that is urging the former POTUS to make another run for the White House. Of course, Florida is a must win State for the GOP and should be friendly ‘Trump’ country given his roots there.”
Biden remains the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at odds of +350. Vice President Kamala Harris is +450 while Trump and DeSantis are +700 and +1000, respectively.
Full toplines and crosstabs, including additional information concerning the poll’s demographics and methodology, are available at the following links:
Any additional questions about the poll should be sent to Jim Lee at email@example.com or Alex Chan at firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Updated November 18, 2021 16:00:45