Alabama vs Oklahoma Rematch: CFP Best Bet
The expanded College Football Playoff opens with a high-stakes SEC showdown rematch as No. 9 Alabama heads to Norman to take on No. 8 Oklahoma in a true win-or-go-home First Round matchup.
These programs squared off just weeks ago, with the Sooners pulling a 23–21 upset. Now the stakes are even higher. Alabama enters looking to settle the score and keep its championship hopes alive, while Oklahoma has a chance to make history by knocking off the Crimson Tide for a second time in the same season.
With a CFP berth on the line, expect adjustments, urgency, and a much different betting dynamic than the regular-season meeting.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds are live, with early lines setting the stage for one of the most bet-on First Round matchups of the CFP.
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Latest Betting Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total
| BUSR | Alabama | Oklahoma |
| Spread | -1 (-110) | +1 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -117 | -104 |
| Total | O 40.5 | U 40.5 |
NCAAF Odds updated from BUSR as of Tuesday, December 16, 2025.
Alabama Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
Alabama enters the playoffs with a 10-3 record, but their recent performances have been inconsistent. They are coming off a tough 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, a contest where the offense went scoreless through three quarters and was plagued by two costly turnovers.
Before that, they needed a fourth-quarter score to escape Auburn, 27-20. The offense has looked “choppy” down the stretch, struggling to find a rhythm against elite defenses.
ATS (Against the Spread) Trends
- – 7-4-2 ATS on the season.
- – 2-3-1 ATS record in road and neutral site games, including significant ATS losses to Florida State (failed by 27.5 points) and Georgia (failed by 19.5 points).
- – Previous Oklahoma Result: In their regular-season matchup on November 15, Alabama failed to cover as -6.5 point favorites, losing outright to Oklahoma by 2 points at home.
Key Injuries & Impact
- – Jam Miller, Running Back: Questionable
- – Josh Cuevas, Tight End: Questionable
- – LT Overton, Defensive End: Doubtful
- – Parker Brailsford, Center: Probable
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Turnover Prone: The offense has been sputtering, ranking mid-pack nationally in yards (377.2) and barely in the top-50 for points (29.2). Quarterback Ty Simpson has not been flawless under pressure, throwing four interceptions in his last four appearances.
- – Elite Secondary: They rank inside the top-12 for fewest points allowed per game, and the secondary is considered elite.
Oklahoma Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
Oklahoma (10-2) closed the regular season on a tear, rattling off four straight wins to secure the No. 8 seed. This streak included underdog victories over both Alabama and Tennessee. In the regular-season finale against LSU, quarterback John Mateer eclipsed 300 passing yards, showing that the offense can move the ball when necessary.
ATS Trends
- – Season record: 6-5-1 ATS this season.
- Home Underdogs: This is the first time all season Oklahoma has entered a game as a home underdog.
- – Under Trend: Under is a dominant trend for the Sooners, going 10-2 in their games this season. It is also 6-1 in games hosted at Memorial Stadium.
Key Injuries
- – R Mason Thomas (Defensive End) – Questionable
- – Jake Maikkula (Center) – Questionable
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Strength – Opportunistic Defense: The Sooners’ defense is a top-10 unit that specializes in forcing mistakes (1.2 takeaways per game) and stuffing the run (allowing just 78.2 rushing yards per game, ranked 3rd). In the first meeting, they scored 17 points directly off turnovers.
- – Weakness – Turnover Prone QB: Quarterback John Mateer has been up-and-down, throwing 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions on the year. While dynamic with his legs (7 rushing TDs), his tendency to turn the ball over is a liability against Alabama’s secondary.
Head-to-Head History
- – Recent Meeting: Oklahoma defeated Alabama 23-21 on November 15 in Tuscaloosa.
- – Series History: Oklahoma leads the all-time series 5-2-1 and has won two in a row. They have won five of the last six meetings.
- – Playoff History: Alabama beat Oklahoma in their only previous College Football Playoff meeting back in 2018.
- – Trends: The Under has hit in three straight meetings between these two schools.
Matchup Breakdown – Offense vs Defense
When Alabama Has the Ball
- – Dominant Yardage Generation: The Crimson Tide offense proved it can move the ball at will against this defense, racking up 406 total yards in the first meeting—nearly double Oklahoma’s output (212 yards).
- – Prolific Aerial Scoring: Quarterback Ty Simpson is one of the SEC’s most productive passers, ranking near the top of the conference with 26 touchdown passes on the season.
- – Proven Success vs. Sooners: Despite the previous loss, Simpson demonstrated he can exploit the Oklahoma secondary, having “torched” them for 326 passing yards in their November matchup.
When Oklahoma Has the Ball
- – Dual-Threat Red Zone Weapon: Quarterback John Mateer stresses defenses with his mobility, having rushed for seven touchdowns this season to complement his passing game.
- – Recent Passing Surge: The passing attack enters the playoffs with momentum, as Mateer is fresh off a performance where he eclipsed 300 passing yards against LSU in the regular-season finale.
- – Opportunistic Execution: The offense excels at converting short fields into points, punishing Alabama for every mistake in the first meeting by scoring 17 points directly off turnovers.
Over/Under Analysis & Betting Trends
- – The Total: 40.5 Points.
- – Historical Context: If this number holds, it will be the lowest closing total in College Football Playoff history.
- – Trend Dominance: The Under is a combined 19-6 in games featuring either of these teams this season.
- – The “Under” has hit in five straight Alabama games and in nine of their last 10 outings overall. Specifically, the Under is 6-0 in Alabama’s games against ranked opponents this year.
- – Weather Impact: Forecasts call for cold conditions in Norman (49-45 degrees) with 15 mph winds, dropping the ‘real feel’ into the 30s. While snow is unlikely, the wind and cold favor defense.
- – Style of Play: Both teams possess top-12 defenses scoring-wise. The first game ended 23-21, and neither offense has shown the explosiveness lately to suggest a shootout is coming.
Best Prop Bets
- – Jamarion Miller Under Rushing Yards: Miller leads a rushing attack that ranks just 117th in the FBS (116.2 YPG) and faces an elite Oklahoma defense that ranks 5th nationally against the run, allowing only 81.4 yards per game.
- – Isaiah Sategna Over Receiving Yards: Sategna is the clear focal point of the Oklahoma offense with 948 yards on the season, coming off a dominant performance where he caught nine passes for 121 yards.
- – Ty Simpson Over Passing Yards: Alabama’s offense leans heavily on the pass (ranking 23rd nationally vs. 117th in rushing), meaning Simpson (who has 3,268 yards this season) will likely shoulder the offensive load.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Under 40.5 (-115)
Why: This game features two defenses playing at an elite level and two offenses that have serious question marks. The trends are overwhelming: the Under is 6-0 in Alabama’s games against ranked opponents and 6-1 in Oklahoma home games.
The first matchup was decided by turnovers, not by offensive dominance. Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma’s yardage but still scored only 21 points. Expect a grind-it-out defensive battle in which field position and turnovers dictate the score, keeping the total below this historic low.
The College Football Playoffs are Here. Are you Ready?
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