2024 US Elections – Who Will Win the Race to the White House?
Presidential Election
Former president Donald Trump leads the race to the White House, followed closely by incumbent president Joe Biden, per the latest politics odds across the sports betting exchange.
BUSR sportsbook tips Trump as the +125 favorite for a White House return next year, while Biden is priced at +200 to win a second consecutive term for the Presidential Election Odds.
Thus, the current political betting outlook is clearly forecasting a rematch of the 2020 US Elections between Trump and Biden.
Of course, the buck doesn’t stop with this geriatric tandem.
Politics Odds
Bookmakers serve up several potential candidates (declared and undeclared) for bettors to consider in the betting, most notably former UN Ambassador Nikki (+1000), California Governor Gavin Newsom (+1200) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (+4000).
The problem with these alternative candidates is that none of them carry odds lower than 10-to-1, making them improbable bets at this point in time.
This doesn’t mean that a Trump vs Biden rematch therefore is a foregone conclusion. It’s too soon to make such unequivocal claims. But, seeing as this is precisely the way the die is cast, we analyze the pair and their corresponding betting odds below.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
· Donald Trump +125
· Joe Biden +200
· Nikki Haley +1000
· Gavin Newsom +1200
· Michelle Obama +2000
· Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +2500
· Kamala Harris +4000
· Ron DeSantis +4000
· Vivek Ramaswamy +6600
· Chris Christie +20000
Trump Surging Despite Legal Troubles
Despite the unprecedented legal threats bearing down on Trump, the former POTUS continues to defy logic and frustrate his most ardent critics by leading the presidential race. And at +125 odds to win, Trump has a perceived 44.4% implied probability of winning.
Once upon a time, the merest whiff of a political scandal was career-ending, never mind criminality. Think President Richard Nixon and Watergate – one of the biggest political scandals in US history – until now.
In 2023, Trump became the first former president in US history to face criminal charges as four separate indictments spanning more than 90 felony charges were levied against him at the state and federal levels.
Being indicted and/or convicted later does not disqualify Trump from running in the next general elections, but if it was meant to act as a deterrent to move the party and voters away from him, it’s backfired spectacularly.
Trump’s support base is not only rallying behind him, but his polling numbers have swelled following each indictment.
Trump himself has brandished these legal threats as a “witch hunt” and his most ardent allies within the GOP have accused Biden and the Democrats of “election interference” by weaponizing the Department of Justice against a likely presidential opponent.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy turned to social media following Trump’s second indictment and first federal indictment for retaining classified documents in June. Then, he tweeted “It is unconscionable for a President to indict the leading candidate opposing him. Joe Biden kept classified documents for decades.” [Source: X, formerly known as Twitter]
House Representative Thomas Massie (R-Ky) also turned to X, posting the following message on the social media platform: “A sitting president arresting his political opponent is the ultimate weaponization of government.”
Trump has accomplished something no politician has ever managed to do successfully and at scale: turn scandal and alleged criminality into a campaign-winning strategy. He’s always fashioned himself as the protector of the proletariat, the champion of “forgotten Americans” – those ignored by the liberal champagne socialists who are running the system for their own benefit.
Now, thanks to these legal attacks, he’s donned the guise of a martyr, standing in between the ruling class and the “little guy”, who is, in reality, the true target of these attacks on him. As he put it to his MAGA supporters in Pennsylvania during a rally in August, “They’re not indicting me, they’re indicting you.” Source: The Guardian
If Americans are buying what Trump is selling, is too soon to tell for certain. The general election is 11 months away and a lot can happen between now and then. But the early polling consensus does look favorable, hence Trump’s surge on the 2024 presidential odds board.
A recent Bloomberg News poll/Morning Consult poll showed Trump beating Biden in key swing states that are likely to decide the 2024 general election. Trump led Biden 47% to 42 % in all swing states combined. His biggest lead is in North Carolina, where he’s +9 points ahead of Biden (49% to 40%), followed by +6 points edge in Georgia (49% to 43%). The closest state is Pennsylvania, where Trump holds +2 points edge over Biden (46% to 44%).
Biden Losing Ground
Incumbent Joe Biden led the betting for a White House return at the start of 2023, holding his favorable position through most of the year until he was overtaken by Trump on the politics odds board late this summer.
Biden enjoyed odds as low as +163 in the summer before they began to move against him. Today, at +200, Biden’s odds carry an implied probability of 33.3%.
Biden’s bid for the Democratic nomination remains unchallenged with his party falling in line in support of a second term. Incumbency is a powerful tool as history tells us. Incumbents (if eligible for re-election) are almost always nominated to lead the party into the next election. What’s more, incumbents have succeeded in three of the last four re-election bids.
Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama were all two-term presidents. The only exception in recent memory is drumroll Trump.
And yet. Biden has lost ground in the presidential race as he is seemingly staring down the barrel of defeat per the sportsbook exchange if he goes up against Trump again.
Widespread disenchantment with the Biden administration’s first term is at the crux of Biden’s decline. On the domestic front, the dissatisfaction with the handling of the economy, inflation, cost of living crisis, and migration underscore the high disapproval of is job performance. While foreign policy decisions about Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Israel are dividing Americans.
Arguably, concern over Biden’s fitness for office is another factor going against him. A recent NBC poll found that 74% of voters have some concern over Biden’s mental and physical fitness ahead of next year’s election.
Biden became the oldest serving president at 78 when he assumed the Oval Office. He’ll be 82 at the start of a second term should he win the 2024 US Elections.