Week 4 Monday Night Football Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

NFL
September 27, 2025

Week 4 delivers a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader that carries major weight for the AFC standings and the NFL Betting market. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins open the slate with both teams desperate to escape 0-3 starts, while the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos follow in a matchup that pits one of the league’s hottest ATS teams against a home side that has historically thrived in September. 

BUSR’s NFL Odds show both games inside a field goal, a signal to bettors that margins are razor thin and small situational edges could decide where the tickets cash. From quarterback efficiency splits to divisional trend patterns and live player prop streaks, these two games set up as a showcase of how prime-time pressure can swing outcomes. 

With each team still shaping its identity, Monday Night Football offers valuable clues for NFL futures bettors and immediate opportunities for those targeting spreads, totals, and props.

 

New York JetsNew York Jets vs Miami DolphinsMiami Dolphins 

 

Two 0-3 teams meet in prime time with a narrow spread and a total parked near the mid-40s, a setup that always draws attention in NFL Betting. BUSR lists the NFL Odds at Dolphins -2.5 with a total of 45.5, focusing on situational angles, quarterback efficiency, and which defense can get off the field on third down. 

The New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins matchup takes place on Monday Night Football from Hard Rock Stadium, and recent form from both sides has leaned toward a high-scoring affair. Each team has allowed at least 29 in every game so far, and both offenses still carry healthy skill talent even through slow starts.

Handicapping this number requires peeling through trend clusters and player usage. The Jets arrive off a 29-27 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and return home for the Cowboys next week, while Miami fell 31-21 to Buffalo and heads to Carolina after this. The Dolphins have covered nine of their last ten as home favorites following a division game and have won nine straight at home against the Jets. 

Countering that, the Week 4 trend history favors New York, including underdog success and early-game edges. With NFL Odds this tight, Monday Night Football often becomes a game of sequencing: who grabs the first touchdown, who avoids the turnover at midfield, and which coordinator scripts the first 15 plays with more clarity.

 

Team by Team Analysis

 

New York Jets

New York seeks a first win after falling to Tampa Bay 29-27, a game that pivoted late on a blocked field goal return before Baker Mayfield answered with a final drive. The Jets’ schedule eases with a home game against Dallas next week, yet this spot demands urgency, given a start that includes competitive stretches on offense. 

Tyrod Taylor has provided stability when called, completing 70.2% for 253 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Justin Fields has added 245 passing yards, a touchdown, and 97 rushing yards with two scores. Garrett Wilson anchors the passing game with 21 catches for 229 yards and two touchdowns to lead the AFC in receptions heading into Week 4. Breece Hall sets the pace on the ground with 157 rushing yards, and Braelon Allen has chipped in multi-use snaps that profile well for prop ladders.

 

Offensive Inconsistency

The Jets have created some chunk plays without fully solving protection or early-down consistency. New York’s defense has produced six sacks and is led by Jamien Sherwood’s 30 tackles, including 14 solo. Pressure has not consistently closed drives, which matters against a Dolphins attack that thrives on rhythm throws and YAC. 

Special teams set edges. New York ranks first in kickoff return yards per game (179.0) and has a road wideout prop trend with Allen Lazard recording 13+ receiving yards in seven straight September games as a road underdog. Taylor’s recent starter props trend clean as well: 197+ passing yards in five of his last six starts and 23+ completions in each of his last three.

 

Key Trends for the Jets

Trend clusters around Week 4 favor the Jets in several ways. The underdogs have won four of their last five Week 4 Jets games and covered in each of the previous five. New York has won the first quarter in nine of the last ten Week 4 games against AFC East opponents and has played to the Over in seven straight Week 4 games as an underdog. New York also carries a live red-zone scoring profile with Garrett Wilson touchdowns in three straight road games. Justin Fields has recorded 17+ rushing yards in 17 of his last 19 against division opponents, a helpful baseline for live props and drive-sustaining scrambles.

There are trend headwinds to weigh. The Jets have lost each of their last 13 against AFC East opponents on a losing streak and failed to cover eight of their last ten September games as road underdogs against AFC opponents. New York has dropped the first half in six straight games as an underdog following a loss and lost the first quarter in five straight Monday games against opponents with losing records. The defense must find answers against motion and horizontal stretch concepts to break those patterns. That puts emphasis on tackling and discipline more than high-variance blitz calls.

 

The Over/Under Factor

From a total angle, one key data point stands out: each of the last four divisional games between teams has gone under, which conflicts with several Over-leaning Week 4 and East Coast splits. The Jets’ own Week 4 Over trend and Miami’s East Coast Over run set the stage for a market tug-of-war. New York’s best path to cashing +2.5 is a fast start that leans on scripted touches for Garrett Wilson, QB movement on third-and-short, and Breece Hall in the screen game to soften Miami’s second level.

 

Miami Dolphins 

Miami returns to Hard Rock at 0-3 after a 31-21 loss to Buffalo and now faces another offense capable of stacking explosives if left in manageable down-and-distance. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 69.7% for 575 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. He has thrown for 288+ passing yards in four straight appearances when the Dolphins are favored and has recorded 26+ completions in five straight in that same role. 

 

The Offensive Game Couldn’t Be the Issue

Tyreek Hill leads with 198 receiving yards on 15 catches and has recorded 69+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with Miami as a favorite following a loss. Jaylen Waddle has added 14 catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns, with 53+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine home games against AFC East opponents. De’Von Achane is carrying dual roles with 147 rushing yards and 18 receptions for 141 yards and two touchdowns; he has scored in six straight home games and has 55+ rushing yards in three of his last four.

 

Let’s Analyze Miami’s Defense

Defensively, Tyrel Dodson’s 33 tackles (23 solo) and a sack set the tone for a unit that has generated six sacks, with Bradley Chubb leading with three. Jaelan Phillips ranks tied for first in quarterback hurries (5) entering Week 4, a metric that can tilt outcomes if it moves Taylor or Fields off spots. Miami’s defense has allowed 32.3 points per game heading into Week 4, which explains the total placement and the Over bias on several trend splits. Miami also ranks first in average punt return (28.8 yards), a hidden-yardage edge that impacts field position and live-in-game overs if the offense fails to finish drives.

Trend clusters at home support the Dolphins at this spread zone. Miami has won nine straight home games against the Jets and scored the first touchdown in five of the last six games as a favorite. The Dolphins have covered nine of their last ten as home favorites following a division game and own a favorable first-half profile in that role. 

The Jets’ September road underdog ATS slide further supports the home side in traditional spread markets. Head-to-head and division angles match the tape; Mike McDaniel’s script frequently hits early with motion and quick hitters that get Hill and Waddle into clean windows before safeties can rotate.

Week 4 historical angles pull the other way. Miami has lost each of its last ten Week 4 games and failed to cover in each of those ten. The Dolphins have lost the first half in ten straight Week 4 games. That conflict with the strong home favorite profile creates natural hesitation at -2.5, which keeps the side inside a field goal and points many bettors to derivative markets such as Dolphins first touchdown or Alt Over builds anchored by Miami’s East Coast scoring splits.

 

Go for the Over

Totals splits paint an actionable picture. Each of Miami’s last nine games on the East Coast has gone over the total. That aligns with how this roster performs at home: a high tempo, positive script potential in the first quarter, and special teams that can flip the field. The underdog-centric divisional under trend is the lone counter-signal and ties more to divisional familiarity than to current personnel. Given how both defenses have performed, that specific Under note takes a back seat.

 

Betting Analysis and Game Prediction

 

Game Analysis

This matchup features clear, opposing trend clusters and two offenses with enough playmakers to produce a high-leverage fourth quarter. On the side, Miami’s home profile is complex to fade at a number under a field goal: nine straight home wins against the Jets, nine covers in the last ten as home favorites after a division game, and a repeated pattern of scoring first as a favorite. 

The Jets bring a robust set of Week 4 trends for underdogs, along with a strong first-quarter history in that week. However, the wider sample against the AFC East, particularly when on a losing streak, has been poor. With NFL Odds at Dolphins -3, the home favorite earns a small edge in spread markets as long as Tua continues his favored role volume patterns and the pass rush maintains a pressure rate without blitzing into quick game.

The total is where the card opens up. Both teams have allowed at least 29 in every game to date. The Dolphins have played nine straight Overs on the East Coast. The Jets have gone over in seven straight Week 4 underdog spots. Miami’s special teams and return game add short fields, and both quarterbacks on the New York side can create second-reaction plays that spike yards per play. Divisional familiarity does trend under in a small recent sample, yet the current defensive numbers and the prop ladders for Tua, Hill, Waddle, and Achane all point toward drives finishing with points rather than stalled red-zone trips.

 

Market and Public Perspective

Prop markets track the data provided. De’Von Achane’s anytime touchdown fits six straight home scoring appearances with a secondary angle at 55+ rushing yards in three of his last four. Tua to 26+ completions and a yardage build to 275–290 aligns with four straight at 288+ as a favorite, particularly against a Jets defense that has not closed sacks into drive killers. Tyreek Hill to 70+ receiving yards matches eight of his last nine in this exact favorite-off-a-loss lane. 

For New York, a Garrett Wilson anytime touchdown or 60+ receiving yards fits recent usage and a three-straight road touchdown run. Tyrod Taylor’s completions build in the low-20s match his last three starter appearances, and Justin Fields’ 25+ rushing yards pair with his division trend.

 

Live Betting Insights

From an NFL Betting standpoint, portfolio construction can combine a modest side position with totals and props. A core three-leg build that leans Over 45.5, Achane anytime, and Hill 70+ has correlated logic tied to the script. A hedge path for Jets backers is positioned in first-quarter markets, given their Week 4 early-game trend stack and Garrett Wilson’s scripted targets.

Live betting deserves attention where pace exceeds expectation in the first two drives; an early Over steam to 47–48 remains playable when drives feature explosives rather than long third-down chains.

 

Matchup Verdict

Miami at home with the better finishing profile, the more stable first-read passing game, and special teams leverage earns the nod at a number that protects against a narrow win condition. New York’s playmakers can keep this inside one score and create volatility in the middle quarters, which is why the total holds more value than the spread. With both defenses struggling to contain explosives and both offenses trending to positive Monday scripts, the most actionable edge lies in points.

 

Best Bets (BUSR):  Over 45.5, Dolphins -2.5 (smaller stake).

 

Cincinnati BengalsCincinnati Bengals vs Denver BroncosDenver Broncos

Two AFC teams with playoff aspirations collide under the lights as the Cincinnati Bengals meet the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football at Empower Field. BUSR lists the NFL Odds with Denver as the favorite and the total hovering in the mid-40s, a range that reflects the clash of styles between a Bengals squad looking to rediscover its offensive rhythm and a Broncos team that leans on the ground game and defense. With trend clusters pointing in opposite directions, this is a critical matchup for bettors evaluating spread, total, and prop markets in Week 4 of the NFL Betting Season.

 

Team by Team Analysis

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati enters the week having beaten the Jaguars and lost to the Vikings, but looks ahead to the Lions. Despite this, the broader record shows seven wins in their last eight games. Jake Browning has been inconsistent, completing 67.8% for 381 yards with three touchdowns against five interceptions. His top connection has been Ja’Marr Chase, partnered with Tee Higgins for a combined 345 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Noah Fant has also provided 12 catches in secondary routes, but the attack has lacked balance.

 

Ground Game with Problems

The rushing game has struggled, averaging only 49 yards per contest, with Chase Brown leading at 93 yards and one touchdown. That lack of ground support has left Browning vulnerable to pressure and contributed to turnover clusters. On defense, Cincinnati is yielding 30.3 points and 359.7 yards per game, numbers that are difficult to overcome without offensive stability. Safety Jordan Battle leads the unit with 23 tackles, Trey Hendrickson has two sacks, and DJ Turner II has an interception.

 

Cincinnati Past Performances

Bengals betting trends offer both promise and caution. Cincinnati has won six straight against AFC opponents and has covered in 12 of their last 13 against teams with losing records. However, they have lost three of their last four Monday games against teams under .500, and they have failed to cover in three straight road games. In Denver specifically, the Bengals have lost the first quarter in each of their last three visits against teams with losing records and dropped the first half in four of their last five Week 4 games against AFC opponents.

 

What to Expect from the Bengals

Totals trends lean defensive; seven of Cincinnati’s last eight games as underdogs following a road loss have gone under. For bettors, the Bengals’ best path involves early strikes to Chase or Higgins, protection for Browning, and forcing Denver into third-and-long by limiting J.K. Dobbins on first downs.

 

Denver Broncos

 

Denver enters after losses to the Colts and Chargers, with the Eagles up next, but recent form shows six wins in their last ten overall. Rookie Bo Nix has shown poise, completing 64.2% of passes for 535 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. His primary weapons, Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin, have combined for 326 yards and three touchdowns, while Marvin Mims Jr. has chipped in with six receptions as a complementary option.

 

A Rushing Strategy with a Real Horse- Power

The Broncos lean heavily on their rushing attack, averaging 129 yards per game. J.K. Dobbins anchors that prop trend with 222 yards and three touchdowns, and his consistency: scoring in five straight September appearances as a favorite, hitting 50+ rushing yards in 11 of his last 12 games in that role, and clearing 59+ scrimmage yards in seven straight against AFC opponents. He has also scored the last touchdown in four of his recent games, making him a key red-zone option.

Defensively, Denver is allowing 327.3 yards per game while yielding a league-low 1.3 points per contest, according to the provided stat line. Talanoa Hufanga leads with 27 tackles, Nik Bonitto has three sacks, and Brandon Jones has one interception. The pass rush and tackling core create stability that supports their home-field advantage.

 

The Home-Stronghold

Broncos betting trends highlight their dominance in September home games. Denver has won nine straight September meetings against Cincinnati, and the home team has covered in eight of the last nine Broncos games overall. The Bengals’ struggles on the road amplify Denver’s profile, particularly since Cincinnati has failed to cover in three straight away from home.

Totals splits also tilt toward defense: eight of Denver’s last nine September games at Empower Field have gone under. While their ground attack is capable of controlling tempo, their defensive performance at home is what drives those results.

 

Match Betting Prediction

 

This game sets up as a classic prime-time clash where recent form, prop ladders, and historical betting patterns intersect. The NFL Odds at BUSR show Denver as the favorite with a total near the mid-40s, reflecting respect for their rushing edge and home-field advantage.

On the Cincinnati side, Browning’s turnover issues and a nonexistent rushing game create volatility. Chase and Higgins give the Bengals explosive options, but Denver’s defensive consistency at home and the ability to control pace with Dobbins tip the balance. Prop angles like J.K. Dobbins anytime touchdown or over 59 rushing and receiving yards fit multiple trend alignments. Cincinnati’s counterplay rests on Garrett Wilson-style routes to Chase and Higgins, paired with pressure from Hendrickson to push Nix off schedule.

 

The Home, The Perk

For totals bettors, under patterns dominate in this setup. Both Denver’s September home games and Cincinnati’s underdog road-loss follow-ups lean toward lower scores. The Broncos’ ground control and defensive metrics suggest that even if the Bengals generate a couple of explosive plays, sustained drives will be rare.

The final call leans Denver at home with a modest edge on the spread. The Broncos’ nine straight September wins against the Bengals, their strong record covering at Empower Field, and their rushing attack led by Dobbins align with the tape and the trends. Cincinnati carries situational appeal in AFC matchups overall, but their current form and road liabilities keep them in a difficult position.

 

Best Bets (BUSR):  Denver Broncos -2.5, Under 44.5

 

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