NFL Week 15 Sunday Picks and Same-Game Parlays
Latest Betting Odds – Sunday Market Movers
We have identified four key matchups, two in the early window and two in the late window, that offer the best betting value and Same-Game Parlay (SGP) potential.
Below are the current NFL odds for our top four Sunday picks:
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Browns Bears | -7.5 -7.5 | +310 -450 | O 39(-110) U 39(-110) |
| Commanders Giants | +2.5 -2.5 | +113 -144 | O 46.5 (-110) U 46.5 (-110) |
| Packers Broncos | -2 +2 | -130 +102 | O 43 (-110) U 43 (-110) |
| Lions Rams | +6 -6 | +209 -283 | O 55 (-110) U 55 (-110) |
Odds updated as of Tuesday, December 9, 2025.
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Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears
Team Overview & Trends
The Stake: The Bears host the Browns at Soldier Field on Sunday, Dec. 14. Chicago needs a win to defend their playoff positioning after falling to the No. 7 seed following a loss to Green Bay. The Browns are mathematically eliminated after a 31-29 loss to the Titans (2-11).
Trends: Chicago is a heavy -7.5 favorite. The Total is set low at 40, heavily influenced by the forecast: 19-degree temperatures, frigid wind off Lake Michigan, and snow flurries.
Key Matchup Insights
- – Best Rushing Attack: The Bears boast the best rushing offense in the NFL over the last two months, a massive advantage in the snowy conditions.
- – QB Disparity: While Caleb Williams holds the ball longer than any QB in the league, he faces rookie Shedeur Sanders, who was notably benched for a crucial 2-point conversion last week.
- – Weather Factor: The forecast calls for “Old School” football weather—19 degrees and snow—which favors the superior ground game (Chicago).
Best SGP (Same-Game Parlay)
The “Soldier Field Freeze” SGP:
- Bears Moneyline (-429): Chicago needs this win; Cleveland is playing out the string.
- Under 40 Points (Alt Total): Frigid wind and snow favor a low-scoring grind.
- Caleb Williams 25+ Rushing Yards: He will need to use his legs to escape the rush on the frozen track.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Bears -7.5
Why: The Bears have the run game to dominate in these conditions and the motivation to stay in the playoff race. Cleveland is mathematically eliminated and lacks the offensive identity to compete in the cold.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
Team Overview & Trends
The Stake: The Commanders visit MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 14, looking to snap a brutal eight-game losing streak that has dropped them to 3-10. Despite the skid and a 31-0 loss to Minnesota last week, they are +2.5 road underdogs.
Trends: Washington is just 1-6 on the road. Both teams struggle offensively: Washington scores 20.2 PPG, while the Giants average 21.5 PPG.
Key Matchup Insights
- – Get Right Spot: Washington is reeling from an “embarrassing” 31-0 loss to the Vikings, which serves as a massive motivation wake-up call.
- – QB Health: Jayden Daniels left the last game with an elbow injury but could start, giving Washington a clear edge under center.
- – Defensive Liabilities: Both teams are allowing just under 30 points per contest, but the Giants rarely score over 20 points themselves.
- – Road Woes vs. Opportunity: While the Commanders are 1-6 on the road, facing a 2-11 Giants team is the perfect opportunity to end their eight-game slide.
Best SGP (Same-Game Parlay)
The “NFC East Bounce Back” SGP:
- Commanders Moneyline (+108): Betting on the desperate team to snap their streak.
- Over 47 points: Both offenses are inconsistent; expect a divisional slugfest.
- Jayden Daniels 200+ Passing Yards: He needs to carry the offense to a win.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Commanders +2.5
Why: Washington is the better team on paper and has a massive motivation edge after being embarrassed last week. The Giants lack the firepower to capitalize on Washington’s road struggles.
Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos
Team Overview & Trends
The Stake: A potential Super Bowl preview featuring the 11-2 Broncos and 9-3-1 Packers on Sunday, Dec. 14 at Mile High.
Trends: The Broncos are a fortress at home, having won 11 straight games at Empower Field. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games following a division win.
Key Matchup Insights
- – Strength vs. Strength: This game features the Packers’ #1-ranked 3rd-down offense (50.6%) vs. the Broncos’ #1-ranked 3rd-down defense (30.9%).
- – Home Field Dominance: The Broncos have won 11 straight games at home this season.
- – Packers Road Struggle: Green Bay has lost its last four road games against AFC West opponents.
- – Clock Control: Denver held the ball for a massive 39:03 last week, relying on rookie Bo Nix to manage the game and avoid turnovers.
- – Nix’s Legs: Bo Nix has recorded 22+ rushing yards in six of his last seven games as an underdog.
Best SGP (Same-Game Parlay)
The “Mile High Battle” SGP:
- Broncos +2.5: They are 11-0 at home this season.
- Bo Nix 20+ Rushing Yards: He has recorded 22+ rushing yards in six of his last seven games as an underdog.
- Josh Jacobs Anytime TD: He has scored in seven straight games against winning teams.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Why: Denver is unbeatable at home (11 straight wins). Getting points with the 11-2 Broncos at Mile High is the best value on the board. Their #1-ranked third-down defense will be the difference.
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams
Team Overview & Trends
The Stake: A high-octane NFC battle at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, Dec. 14. The Rams (-5.5) are favored against a Lions team coming off a 44-30 win over Dallas.
Trends: The Lions have topped the total in five of their last six games. Both teams rank in the Top 5 in EPA per play since Week 10.
Key Matchup Insights
- – Shootout Potential: Both offenses rank in the Top 5 in EPA per play since Week 10, indicating a high-scoring affair.
- – Critical Injury: The Lions lost star safety Brian Branch for the season, leaving their secondary decimated against Matthew Stafford.
- – Defensive Issues: Detroit has given up 27+ points in four of their last six games.
- – Stafford’s Form: Matthew Stafford has the Rams on a “championship path” and is poised to exploit his former team’s depleted defense.
- – Goff’s Firepower: Jared Goff and the Lions scored 44 points last week, proving they can trade shots even without a fully healthy defense.
Best SGP (Same-Game Parlay)
The “Stafford-Goff Shootout” SGP :
- Over 47.5 Points (Alt Total): Buying down the 51.5 line. Both offenses are Top 5 in EPA.
- Jared Goff 250+ Passing Yards: He will be throwing to match Stafford.
- Matthew Stafford 2+ Passing TDs: Exploiting the injury to Brian Branch.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Rams -5.5
Why: While the Lions have the offense to keep it close, their defensive injuries (Branch out) are a massive liability against Stafford and McVay. The Rams win a high-scoring affair by a touchdown.
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