NFL Monday Night Football “Double-Game” Odds for Week 6

NFL
October 11, 2025

Monday Night Football Preview: Bills vs Falcons and Bears vs Commanders

 

Week 6 of the NFL season closes with a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader, offering two games that highlight different tiers of NFL competition. First, the Buffalo Bills head to Atlanta to face the Falcons, a clash of offensive philosophies between an AFC powerhouse and a ground-heavy NFC team.

Then, the spotlight shifts to the nation’s capital, where the Chicago Bears visit the Washington Commanders in a primetime showdown between two teams trying to prove they belong in the playoff mix.

For bettors, both matchups provide interesting value angles within the NFL Odds. The Bills are 4.5-point favorites on the road with a total of 49.5, while the Commanders sit at -4.5 at home against the Bears with an over/under of 50. Each game brings its own betting storyline, the Bills looking to bounce back from a divisional loss and the Commanders testing their young quarterback against one of the league’s weakest defenses. Let’s break down both in depth.

 

 

 

Buffalo BillsBuffalo Bills vs Atlanta FalconsAtlanta Falcons

 

Allen’s Company Analysis

The Buffalo Bills enter at 4-1 after a rare divisional setback. Josh Allen continues to rank among the NFL’s most dangerous quarterbacks, yet the Bills’ offense looked disjointed in their loss to the Patriots. Despite solid numbers, Allen missed a few key throws, and Buffalo’s running game vanished when it mattered most.

That should improve this week. Atlanta’s defensive front is serviceable but not elite, recording modest pressure rates and lacking consistent interior disruption. With correct tackle Spencer Brown healthy again, Allen should have better protection on the edges, giving him the confidence to push the ball downfield. Expect heavy targeting of Stefon Diggs, who remains Allen’s most trusted option, along with increased involvement from rookie Keon Coleman in vertical concepts.

Atlanta’s defense has been retooled, and its secondary has improved significantly behind A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates III, but Buffalo’s offensive versatility poses challenges. The Falcons tend to play a bend-don’t-break style, forcing long drives. That works against mistake-prone offenses, but Allen’s improvisational skills and big-play ability make it hard to contain him for four quarters.

One area of concern for Buffalo is the ground game. James Cook has struggled to find lanes, and the Falcons allow just 3.7 yards per carry. Unless Cook breaks a big one, the Bills will rely more on Allen’s legs in short-yardage spots and designed scrambles.

Defensively, Buffalo’s issues begin with health. Matt Milano’s return was encouraging, but he was clearly limited last week. When Milano isn’t at full speed, the defense loses its range against the run and intermediate passing routes. His recovery is crucial against a Falcons team that leans heavily on the ground game. Meanwhile, Ed Oliver’s absence has weakened interior gap control, forcing more reliance on linebacker pursuit.

If both defenders can play near their usual level, Buffalo’s front can regain dominance. The secondary, led by Taron Johnson and Christian Benford, has held up well, but the safeties will need to stay disciplined against Atlanta’s play-action tendencies.

 

Atlanta Falcons’ Analysis 

The Atlanta Falcons remain committed to their run-heavy identity. Head coach Arthur Smith will again feature Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, aiming to control time of possession and keep Josh Allen on the sidelines. The Bills rank middle of the pack against the run but are vulnerable when their linebackers get drawn out by motion and misdirection, something Smith schemes effectively.

Robinson’s elusiveness can exploit missed tackles in Buffalo’s front seven, particularly if Milano still isn’t moving at full speed. Expect early inside zone calls to soften the defense before taking play-action shots to Drake London downfield. London’s chemistry with Desmond Ridder continues to develop, and the Bills’ corners, while technically sound, can be beaten by physical receivers at the catch point.

Ridder’s performance at home has been markedly better than on the road. His ability to execute within structure improves when Atlanta establishes rhythm early. However, if Buffalo’s pass rush, which ranks top-five in pressure rate, starts collapsing the pocket, Ridder’s turnover tendencies could resurface.

On defense, Atlanta matches up better than expected. Their pass rush has improved with Calais Campbell anchoring the line, and their secondary has allowed only one 300-yard passer this season. The challenge, however, is stopping Allen when plays break down. The Falcons struggle against mobile quarterbacks, a red flag against one of the best improvisers in football.

 

Betting Breakdown

 

The NFL Odds have shifted slightly from Bills -5.5 to -4.5, showing early money on Atlanta. Still, Buffalo’s track record after losses makes them an appealing side in NFL Betting markets. Allen is 13-8 ATS following a loss since 2019, and the Bills have covered in 26 of 44 games following matchups against New England.

Atlanta’s offense could find some success early, but sustaining it for four quarters against Buffalo’s depth is difficult. Expect the Bills to control tempo by halftime and stretch the lead late through turnovers or explosive plays.

 

Pick: Bills -4.5, consider the Over 49.5. 

 

 

 

Chicago BearsChicago Bears vs Washington CommandersWashington Commanders

 

The second game of the slate features two exciting teams with young pieces that can shake NFL Futures. 

 

Washington Commanders 

The Washington Commanders have quietly stabilized after an uneven start to the season. Their Week 5 win over the Chargers featured the return of quarterback Jayden Daniels, who immediately reignited the offense. After a slow opening quarter, Daniels completed over 70% of his passes and showcased his mobility,  a vital component of Eric Bieniemy’s scheme.

This week, he faces a far softer defensive challenge. The Chicago Bears’ defense continues to rank near the bottom of the league in both pressure rate and coverage success. They’ve produced only 44 total pressures through four games, giving Daniels ample time to operate from the pocket. That’s bad news for Chicago because Washington’s receiving corps,  Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, can create separation downfield when given time.

Washington’s offense should maintain balance with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who is coming off a breakout game with over 100 yards on the ground. The Bears’ run defense has been one of the NFL’s worst, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and multiple chunk runs per game. Expect Bieniemy to lean on Croskey-Merritt early to set up deep play-action shots.

On defense, the Commanders possess one of the most formidable fronts in football. The combination of Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat creates constant pressure without heavy blitzing. That spells trouble for Caleb Williams, who’s prone to holding the ball too long while searching for downfield windows. If the Commanders win early downs and force predictable passing situations, they’ll dictate the tempo.

The secondary has improved coverage and communication, limiting explosive plays in recent weeks. If they can keep DJ Moore in front of them and limit yards after catch, Chicago’s offense may be forced into field goals instead of touchdowns.

 

Chicago Bears

The Bears are 2-2 and riding momentum after two improved offensive outings. But those results came against the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders, both bottom-tier defenses. The Commanders represent a significant step up in resistance.

Williams’ arm talent is undeniable, but he still struggles with blitz recognition and pocket feel. Against Washington’s front, that’s a problem. Expect multiple pressures forcing errant throws or drive-stalling sacks. The Bears’ offensive line has allowed too much interior penetration, something Payne and Allen can exploit.

Chicago’s run game, led by D’Andre Swift, will likely meet resistance early. Washington ranks in the top 10 in run defense and rarely allows opposing backs to break contain. Without consistent rushing success, Williams will need to lean on quick passes to Cole Kmet and short crossers to Moore. However, Washington’s linebackers, led by Jamin Davis, tackle well in space, limiting those yards-after-catch opportunities.

Defensively, the Bears continue to underperform. Their secondary gives up high completion percentages, and their linebackers often lose assignments on misdirection. That’s a dangerous mix against a dual-threat quarterback like Daniels. If the Commanders establish an early rhythm, Chicago may find itself chasing from behind by the second quarter.

 

Betting Breakdown

 

Washington is rounding into form on both sides of the ball. Daniels’ mobility keeps defenses honest, and Bieniemy’s play-calling has found balance. The Commanders’ pass rush should overwhelm a young Bears line, creating a steady stream of pressure.

The spread of -4.5 feels fair, aligning with most predictive models. The Commanders’ long history of ATS struggles on Monday Night Football (1-18 since 1998) is a concern, but not enough to outweigh the personnel advantage. Unless Williams delivers a breakout game under duress, Washington’s efficiency should carry them to a comfortable win.

 

Pick: Commanders -4.5, Consider the Under 50.

 

 

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