NFL Odds Week 6: Lines, Spreads for all Sunday Games

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NFL Odds sharpen fast in Week 6, and bettors have a full buffet from the London breakfast kickoff through Sunday Night Football. This slate serves several apparent mismatches, a couple of coin-flip lines, and a handful of totals that hinge on trench play, pace, and red-zone efficiency. 

For NFL Betting, market context matters: short-week travel, injury clusters on the lines, and turnover profiles often move closing numbers more than skill-position headlines. Below you’ll find matchup-by-matchup previews built for bettors, each section titled with the teams and the current line you’ll find at BUSR, plus actionable leans on the side or total. 

Whether you’re loading up for early-window action or saving bullets for live opportunities during Sunday Night Football, these breakdowns keep everything tight, repeat no facts, and stick to the numbers on the board.

NFL Lines this week feature several road favorites with better pass rushes and more stable quarterback play. That combination often travels well. The trick is filtering the signal from the noise: Was last week’s performance an outlier driven by penalties or tipped picks, or a true trend? We’ll focus on protection, pressure, early-down success, and situational play-calling —four pillars that determine coverage more than hype ever will.

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets

Denver arrives off a statement fourth quarter and a 3-2 mark built on elite pressure and improving operation with Bo Nix. Against a New York defense that’s weaker versus the run and has allowed clean pockets more often than expected, the Broncos are positioned to keep the chains moving. 

The Payton’s Offensive Line

Denver’s offensive identity under Sean Payton has leaned balanced when game state cooperates; expect early outside zone and designed quicks to set up intermediate shots to Courtland Sutton and rhythm throws to Evan Engram and Troy Franklin on crossers. Protection is the swing factor: the Broncos have blocked better than the Cowboys’ unit, which still found big plays last week, and Denver uses motion and condensed splits to keep the edges honest. If they avoid drive-killers, pre-snap flags, and sacks on second-and-manageable, they’ll live on schedule and control tempo.

A Defensive Game?

Defensively, Denver’s front is the edge. Their rush rate and win percentage set the tone, and they match up clean against a Jets offense that’s relied on late-production scripts. With Patrick Surtain II erasing primary reads, Denver can shade a safety toward Garrett Wilson, fit Breece Hall downhill with plus run fits, and force Justin Fields into tight-window decisions. Denver’s formula for a cover is straightforward: build an early two-score cushion and force obvious passing downs where their rush closes.

New York’s path requires quick rhythm, misdirection, and possession routes to blunt Denver’s rush. Max-protection shots are attractive in theory, but sustained success likely means tight end involvement, angle routes to Hall, and designed movement throws for Fields to halve the field and escape pressure. The Jets need short fields or hidden yards on special teams to hang. Defensively, they must win first down against the run, then heat Nix without busts behind it. Their issue is drive length; if they can’t get Denver behind the sticks, the Broncos’ red-zone sequencing (QB keepers, split flow, high-low to the TE) tilts toward touchdowns rather than field goals.

Pick:  Lean Broncos -7.5 and a slight lean to over 43.5. Denver owns edges in the trenches and explosives, and New York’s turnover profile invites short fields. If the Broncos play from in front, pace will creep up late.

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland transitions to a lower-variance script with Dillon Gabriel: condensed splits, play-action, and heavy Quinshon Judkins usage. Against a Steelers defense that still generates pressure, the Browns’ acquisition at tackle matters because it stabilizes the blind-side protection long enough to call layered play-action without fear of an instant loss. 

Cleveland’s best drive shape is run-run-pass or run-PA-PA, preserving manageable thirds. They also have the run-game edge: Pittsburgh has been middle-tier against the rush, and Cleveland’s duo/inside zone mix can keep the sticks short. Avoiding long downs keeps the blitz at bay and limits strip-sack risk that’s burned them in prior weeks.

Defensively, Cleveland is built to squeeze this game. They’re top-end against the run and can collapse edges without heavy blitz rates. That puts weight on Pittsburgh to complete low-ADOT throws and break tackles after the catch. If the Browns can win early downs and hold the Steelers to field goals, +5 becomes live into the fourth.

To the Rodgers Pace

Pittsburgh’s plan is tempo on their terms: quick game, RPOs, and isolation shots to DK Metcalf off play-action. The run game is less threatening here; Cleveland’s front swallows light boxes, so the Steelers need Aaron Rodgers to be efficient and patient. Protection has been leaky; sliding toward Myles Garrett and chipping on passing downs is mandatory. If they pass-protect better than the tape suggests and keep Rodgers clean in the red area, five points can be enough in a grinder.

Defensively, the Steelers can tilt this with negative plays. They don’t need sacks every drive; a couple of second-and-12s can force Cleveland to stray from Judkins and expose Gabriel to edge pressure. Key factor: tackling. The Browns’ offense wins ugly if you miss first-contact tackles on second down.

Pick:  Browns +5.5 with a slight lean to over 38. Cleveland has the edge in the run game and the better defense. With both teams likely trading field goals early, the hook above a field goal has value.

Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts

Arizona’s week-to-week variance comes from ball security and late defensive posture. Offensively, their line can protect well enough to scheme layups for Kyler Murray, if he goes, or operate timing routes with Jacoby Brissett if needed. 

For the Ground Game Improvement

The run game has been the limiting factor; this matchup is no gift on the ground against a Colts front that fits fast and rallies. That puts Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride in the foreground. Arizona’s success hinges on using tempo and bunch looks to free McBride on drive and choice routes, then taking calculated shots to Harrison when the Colts show single-high. Avoiding the “empty red-zone” trap—stalling on penalties or drops —keeps them alive well inside the touchdown.

Defensively, the talent is there on the perimeter, and Will Johnson’s return stabilizes coverage. The problem has been late prevention, which looks like it invites comebacks. Against Jonathan Taylor, Arizona must stay aggressive on early downs, spill runs to help, and force Gardner Minshew or Daniel Jones (depending on package usage) to string together precision throws to Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman Jr. If they hold Taylor to efficient but non-explosive gains, they can make this a one-score game into the fourth.

Indianapolis thrives when Taylor sets up second-and-5 and keeps the pace high in neutral situations. Their pass game clicks off play-action crossers and tight end seams, and they’ve protected well enough to let shot plays develop. The risk here is overconfidence after a blowout win: calling too much vertical game into the bracket looks can stall drives. The Colts’ defense should make Arizona one-dimensional, but the tight end matchup demands attention; McBride can take over if left in the static zone.

On defense, Indy wants to build a wall at 3-5 yards, forcing Arizona to convert third-and-mediums without the run threat. If the Colts win red-zone snaps, where they’ve been strong, covering a full touchdown becomes realistic.

Pick: Cardinals +6.5 and a lean to over 47.5. Arizona has enough passing-game answers to hang within a field goal, and both teams’ TE usage points to sustained drives and a live over on a fast track.

Los Angeles Rams vs Baltimore Ravens

Los Angeles checks every box against a shorthanded Baltimore roster. Matthew Stafford’s ball distribution to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams creates constant leverage, and the Rams’ protection plus their route conversions punish static coverage. 

The ground game needs only to be efficient; with a healthy pass plan, the Rams can operate at a high success rate without forcing volume rushes. Keys: keep drive discipline after last week’s fumbles and finish red-zone trips; this defense sets them up with short fields if they play clean.

Defensively, the Rams’ pass rush travels. Against a backup QB, they can win with four, spot-drop behind it, and rally to the checkdown. Their run fits are sound enough to keep Derrick Henry in front, forcing long drives that rarely end in sevens. In a script where LA leads, their pass rush closes and creates turnover chances.

Ravens’ Injuries Price

Baltimore needs a low-possession game: run, bleed clock, and hope for a short-field swing. Protection is the headwind. Cooper Rush under heat has been turnover-prone, and the Rams can get home without blitzing. The Ravens’ defense has to manufacture stops with simulated pressure and early-down run wins, but given recent injuries, that’s a tall order against this passing attack.

Pick: Rams -7.5, strongest side on the card. Game script screams front-run-and-close, and Los Angeles owns edges at quarterback, pass rush, and red-zone finishing.

Seattle Seahawks vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Seattle’s offense stabilized with more Darnold comfort throws and the return of a functional run game. Here, they face a Jacksonville front that’s middling against the run, which brings Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet to the center.

That balance lets Seattle live in second-and-4, where play-action to Jaxon Smith-Njigba becomes deadly. If the Seahawks can stay out of must-pass sets and avoid drive-killing sacks, their efficiency holds. Defensively, Seattle’s structure is built to take away explosive runs and force Trevor Lawrence to stack accurate throws. With Jacksonville’s run game limited by the matchup, Seattle can sit on routes and trust their rush to squeeze the pocket.

Lawrence Called to be the Hero … Again

Jacksonville needs Trevor Lawrence to carry the load again. The run matchup isn’t favorable, so the Jaguars must lean into quick-game spacing, perimeter screens, and shot plays off hard play-action when they get a run look. With pass rush nicked up, Jacksonville’s defense has to choose between coverage shells and pressure—neither ideal if Seattle gets the run going. Their best path is winning on first down defensively, forcing Darnold to hold the ball on second-and-long, where mistakes happen.

Pick: Seahawks PK/Seattle +1.5 if it’s available, with a lean to over 46.5. Seattle’s advantage in the run game and situational passing is enough to swing a field-goal win in a back-and-forth pace.

Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers

Dallas’s offensive explosion last week came despite offensive line attrition; regression is likely, but the matchup still favors production. Carolina remains vulnerable against the run and tight ends, so expect Dallas to feature Javonte Williams early and scheme Jake Ferguson on seams and flats. If CeeDee Lamb remains out, Dallas leans into bunch sets and motion to free George Pickens and create layups for Dak Prescott. The cover path is clean: run success on early downs, manageable thirds, and red-zone punch-ins instead of settling.

Defensively, the Cowboys are volatile. Adding James Houston helped, but structure and tackling dictate outcomes. The Panthers’ run game with Rico Dowdle has juice; Dallas must set edges and fit counters better than they have or risk another late-game sweat. If they keep a lid on explosives, their offense can carry to 27-plus.

Carolina’s offense started poorly last week, then found rhythm with Dowdle’s chunk gains and calmer quarterback play from Bryce Young. Against a defense that’s allowed production all month outside of last week’s outlier, the Panthers should attack the flats and run at light boxes. Carolina’s defensive plan needs to win with four, disrupt Prescott’s launch points, and commit to bracketing Ferguson on money downs. If they turn Dallas one-dimensional and steal a takeaway, the cover becomes an option.

Pick: Panthers +3.5 and lean to over 49.5. Dallas likely wins, but the hook matters with their defensive volatility and Carolina’s live rushing production.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

The Chargers come in off back-to-back losses and face a Dolphins defense that’s struggled to pressure and cover. Justin Herbert should see clean looks to his first read, and Jim Harbaugh’s staff can manufacture a ground game by committee even without their top back. Expect early scripted completions, tempo on third-and-short, and shot calls against single coverage. The key improvement: cleaning up penalties that nuked drives last week. If the Chargers stay below five flags and protect on the edges, their offense looks like a top-10 unit again.

Defensively, Los Angeles has a workable plan: squeeze Tua Tagovailoa with interior push, reroute receivers at the snap, and rally to checkdowns. Without Tyreek Hill, Miami’s margin shrinks. The Chargers’ weakness is run defense, but Miami’s offensive line hasn’t created consistent lanes; that tilts to the Chargers, who can load the box on key downs and dare Tua to hold the ball.

Miami’s best hope is a crisp, scripted opening and a ground game that stays efficient enough to set up play-action slants and deep outs to Jaylen Waddle. They need explosives from De’Von Achane in space and a clean pocket for Tua. Defensively, they must steal possessions, punch-outs, tipped balls, or fourth-down stops, to keep it within one score late. Without pressure, Herbert can pick them apart.

Pick: Chargers -4, the strongest favorite outside of the Rams. Better quarterback, better pass rush, cleaner situational football, and a Miami offense still searching for identity.

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints

New England’s offense leveled up with Drake Maye’s protection stabilizing. The Patriots can now run full-field concepts and take controlled vertical shots to Stefon Diggs while mixing a steady run rate to keep defenses honest. Against New Orleans, the mismatch is at quarterback and along the lines: the Saints’ pass rush has lagged, and Maye thrives when unhurried. Expect rhythm throws, RPO tags, and designed movement to stress static zones. The Patriots should finish drives; that’s been the most significant delta from last season.

Defensively, New England’s run fits matter most. With Taysom Hill in the fold, New Orleans wants to live on the ground and use play-action to manufacture chunk gains. The Patriots’ top-5 run metrics take away that crutch, forcing Spencer Rattler to win as a pure passer. That’s an advantage, Patriots, short fields and turnover equity pile up.

New Orleans needs a favorable script: early run success, third-and-short volume, and a clean pocket on play-action. If the Patriots stymie the run, the Saints’ odds drop. Defensively, they must win red-zone snaps and hope New England’s offensive line regresses a touch on the road. Any bend-don’t-break performance that forces field goals keeps them alive to cover a field goal and a hook.

Pick: Patriots -3.5 with a slight lean to over 46. New England has the quarterback edge, the better protection, and a defense built to erase what New Orleans does best.

Tennessee Titans vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas enters Week 6 at 1-4 after a humbling 40-6 defeat to Indianapolis, a game defined by complete offensive breakdowns up front. Without Kolton Miller, Geno Smith never found rhythm and faced constant pressure. That changes here; Tennessee’s front ranks among the league’s weakest with only 70 pressures through five weeks. The difference in competition matters; the Colts’ front is elite, while the Titans’ pass rush has yet to generate consistent havoc.

Given more time, Smith should find production against a Tennessee secondary lacking top-end talent and depth. The Raiders’ offensive efficiency should improve through intermediate passing to Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams off play-action. Meanwhile, the Titans’ run defense has collapsed since losing T’Vondre Sweat; opponents have gashed them repeatedly, and Ashton Jeanty’s combination of vision and acceleration should translate into another 100-yard performance.

On the defensive side, Las Vegas remains heavily reliant on Maxx Crosby, who’s logged 19 of the team’s 74 total pressures. The rest of the line struggles to win one-on-one. Still, Crosby’s ability to collapse the pocket and disrupt rhythm should be decisive against a rookie quarterback behind a battered offensive line.

Tennessee’s offense has labored through five games, and Cam Ward continues to take unnecessary hits behind inconsistent protection. The Titans have allowed drive-killing sacks in clusters, and facing Crosby without much blocking support puts Ward in another high-pressure situation.

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears provide explosiveness, but the Raiders’ front is equipped to limit early-down rushing efficiency; they rank in the top seven against the run, allowing minimal yards before contact. Without a steady ground game, Ward will again operate in predictable long-yardage scenarios, a losing proposition for this offense.

Defensively, Tennessee is leaking both in run fits and coverage communication. The linebackers are slow to fill, and the corners give too much cushion on third-and-mediums. Against a Raiders team desperate to regain momentum, these weaknesses are poorly aligned.

The Lines Favors the Raiders, at last …

The line movement favors the Las Vegas value. The advance number of the Raiders -6.5 fell to -4.5 despite the Titans’ limited upside, crossing key support at six. Arizona was -7.5 over Tennessee and nearly covered; there’s a minimal difference between the Cardinals and the Raiders in power ratings.

Las Vegas also faces its weakest opponent to date after a brutal stretch of games (Chargers, Commanders, Colts). At 1-4, motivation and urgency should be high. The Titans, fresh off a rare win, fit the profile of an overvalued bad team — typically regressing the following week.

Pick: Raiders -4.5. Slight edge to the Raiders. They’re a veteran locker room playing to end a four-game skid against a soft opponent.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 49ers sit at 4-1 but enter this week riddled with uncertainty. Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings all missed last week’s win over the Rams, leaving the passing game reliant on depth receivers and short-yardage execution. Even in victory, San Francisco was outgained by 2.2 yards per play, an unsustainable gap against a tougher opponent.

If those pieces remain sidelined, offensive balance tilts toward Christian McCaffrey’s dual-threat role. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay boasts the NFL’s best run defense, anchored by Vita Vea and Lavonte David. Running lanes are nearly nonexistent; opposing lead backs have consistently failed to reach 50 yards rushing. McCaffrey will need to win as a receiver, exploiting linebackers in space on option routes.

Defensively, the absence of Nick Bosa looms large. Without his pass rush, San Francisco’s defense has produced only 65 pressures through five games. That diminished disruption allows opposing quarterbacks extended time to attack vertically, a dangerous recipe against Tampa’s resurgent passing offense.

Tampa Bay also sits 4-1 and enters confidently after a 38-35 shootout win over Seattle. Baker Mayfield continues to thrive in Dave Canales’ aggressive passing system, distributing to Mike Evans and standout rookie Emeka Egbuka. The Buccaneers’ offensive line remains shorthanded but functioned adequately last week thanks to quick timing concepts and heavy use of motion.

Against a Bosa-less front, Mayfield should enjoy another clean pocket and continue attacking downfield. Tampa Bay’s biggest weakness, inconsistent run production from Rachaad White, may not matter here; San Francisco’s defensive front is far better against the run than the pass, funneling this matchup into Mayfield’s hands.

The Buccaneers’ defense, meanwhile, ranks first in opponent rushing EPA and will force San Francisco into third-and-long scenarios. Tampa’s challenge lies in preventing yards after catch against McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel if both play.

The market hinges on San Francisco’s injury report. If Purdy and Pearsall return, the 49ers gain offensive rhythm and red-zone diversity. Without them, Tampa’s home-field edge and front-seven advantage make them the right side.

Pick: 49ers +3, Edge to 49ers. Tampa faces a lookahead spot with Detroit on Monday Night Football next week.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers

The Bengals remain one of the league’s least functional teams. Jake Browning has been a liability behind a deteriorating offensive line, and defenses continue to collapse the pocket at will. Cincinnati has surrendered double-digit pressures each week, and facing a Green Bay defense that has 95 sacks through four games (league-best pace) spells disaster.

The Bengals are still Critic

With Joe Flacco not yet active, Browning remains the starter, which limits any deep passing threat. The Bengals’ offense has devolved into checkdowns and desperation scrambles. Without a credible balance, Chase Brown’s ground game rarely tops 3.5 yards per carry, the offense stays off schedule, and invites turnovers.

Green Bay’s defense can attack freely, knowing the Bengals lack counterpunches. The Packers’ pass rush depth allows rotational pressure, and Matt LaFleur’s unit protects edges well enough to neutralize Trey Hendrickson when their offense takes the field.

Offensively, Jordan Love continues to operate efficiently within structure. While lacking a defined WR1, he spreads targets across Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and tight end Tucker Kraft. The Bengals have hemorrhaged yardage to tight ends all year, Sam LaPorta’s breakout a recent example, making Kraft a high-upside red-zone weapon.

Josh Jacobs’ return to form further skews this matchup; Cincinnati ranks near the bottom against the run, already allowing multiple 100-yard rushers. If the Packers build an early lead, Jacobs can salt the game away behind a physical line.

Large favorites of 2 touchdowns or more are 25-17 ATS in October since 2000, reflecting market hesitation to lay big numbers that often creates line value. Given Cincinnati’s dysfunction and Green Bay’s rest advantage off a bye, the setup supports laying points.

Green Bay’s offense will generate short fields from takeaways, while Browning’s pressure metrics predict multiple turnovers. The Bengals’ coaching staff has shown no ability to adapt protection or scheme to quick relief.

Pick: Packers -14.5. Both teams need direction, but Green Bay’s preparation after the bye ensures focus.

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City’s offense remains inconsistent but explosive. Rashee Rice’s return from suspension looms next week, but Patrick Mahomes still has enough weapons to attack a depleted Lions secondary. Detroit could be without both D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold, which would weaken coverage integrity. Against that backdrop, Mahomes’ quick decision-making and Andy Reid’s scripted openers should yield sustained early drives.

Chiefs in the Air on Sunday Night

The Chiefs’ run game remains an afterthought, but with Mahomes manipulating defenses through motion and tempo, air efficiency should be sufficient. Expect heavy Travis Kelce usage between the numbers and vertical shots to Marquez Valdes-Scantling against backup corners.

Defensively, Kansas City still generates intense edge pressure through Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Chiefs will test Detroit’s line, particularly if Taylor Decker remains out. Kansas City’s ability to disrupt protection could tilt the entire game script.

The Real Contender for Detroit?

Detroit’s offense has been efficient during its four-game win streak, but injuries along the offensive front threaten that stability. Without Decker, edge protection has slipped, exposing Jared Goff to more hits. Facing Chris Jones inside compounds the issue.

The Lions must lean on quick-hitting run plays and screen variations to Jahmyr Gibbs to mitigate pressure. However, Kansas City ranks in the top five against the run, and both Gibbs and David Montgomery will face crowded boxes. If the Lions can’t establish early-down success, Goff will face collapsing pockets and narrow throwing windows.

Defensively, Detroit’s pass rush remains formidable with 103 pressures through five games, but missing corner depth against Mahomes can erase that advantage quickly.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high setup. Kansas City sits 2-3 but profiles far better than the record suggests; special teams gaffes cost them the Jacksonville game. Detroit’s four-game streak came against soft opposition —Chicago, Baltimore, and Cincinnati —none of which featured elite quarterbacks.

The Chiefs own the motivational and situational edges. Coming off a loss and at risk of sliding to 2-4, Mahomes and Reid have historically rebounded well. Detroit’s injuries at multiple line spots swing the trench matchup decisively toward Kansas City.

Pick: Chiefs -2..Urgency after a loss and divisional pressure add focus.

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