Week 15 Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Dolphins vs Steelers
Monday Night Football heads to Acrisure Stadium for a pivotal Week 15 clash as the Pittsburgh Steelers (7–6) host the Miami Dolphins (6–7). With the Steelers clinging to first place in the AFC North and the Dolphins fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive amid a four-game winning streak, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
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Latest Betting Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total
| BUSR | Dolphins | Steelers |
| Spread | +3 | -3 |
| Moneyline | +145 | -180 |
| Total | O 42.5 | U 42.5 |
Odds provided by BUSR. Last updated: Saturday, December 15, 2025.
Dolphins Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – The Dolphins are arguably the hottest team in the AFC East, entering Week 15 on a four-game winning streak.
- – They are coming off a dominant 34–10 road victory over the New York Jets, where they outgained the Jets by over 150 yards and controlled the clock for nearly 36 minutes.
- – The defense has been stifling, holding opponents to under 20 points in each game during this streak.
ATS (Against the Spread) Trends
- – Road Momentum: Miami has covered the spread in three consecutive games against teams with a winning record.
- – MNF History: The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Monday games.
- – The Dolphins are 4–1 ATS this season when catching at least three points.
Key Injuries & Impact
- – Elijah Campbell: Doubtful
- – Andrew Meyer: Questionable
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Explosive Ground Game: De’Von Achane leads the team with 1,126 rushing yards and leads the league with 5.8 yards per carry. Miami rushed for 239 yards against the New York Jets last week.
- – Defensive Improvement: The Dolphins’ defense has risen to 15th in scoring (22.8 PPG allowed) and has forced turnovers in four straight games.
- – Red Zone Offense: While they move the ball well (304.6 total yards/game), finishing drives with touchdowns rather than field goals remains crucial against better defenses.
Steelers Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – Pittsburgh snapped a two-game skid with a massive 27–22 upset win over the Baltimore Ravens last week.
- – Now sitting at 7–6 and atop the AFC North, the Steelers are looking to solidify their playoff positioning.
- – Offensively, they are averaging 23.7 points per game (14th in the NFL), with Aaron Rodgers finding his rhythm in the passing game.
ATS Trends
- – Monday Night Dominance: The Steelers have won 22 of their last 23 Monday home games, making them one of the most reliable bets in primetime history.
- – Home Field Edge: Pittsburgh has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
- – First Half Success: The Steelers have won the first half in each of their last six games at Acrisure Stadium.
Key Injuries & Impact
- – Andrus Peat: Out
- – T.J. Watt: Out
- – James Pierre: Out
- – Derrick Harmon: Questionable
- – Darnell Washington: Questionable
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Rodgers-Metcalf Connection: DK Metcalf has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games as a favorite against AFC East teams.
- – Defensive Vulnerability: Without Watt, the Steelers allow 369.3 total yards per game (28th in the NFL). They are giving up 244 passing yards per game, which Tua could exploit if given time.
- – Rushing Depth: With Jaylen Warren (652 yards) leading the way, the Steelers have a balanced attack, though they rank 29th in rush yards per game overall.
Head-to-Head History
- – Recent Meetings: Miami won the last matchup 16–10 in 2022, but Pittsburgh has won six of the previous eight meetings.
- – In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 4–1 in their last five home games against the Dolphins.
- – These matchups tend to be defensive battles; the Under has cashed in recent history, and Pittsburgh consistently keeps scores low at home against AFC foes.
Matchup Breakdown – Offense vs Defense
When the Dolphins Have the Ball
- – Run Game vs. Depleted Front: Miami’s offense runs through De’Von Achane. With T.J. Watt out and interior linemen banged up, the Dolphins will look to replicate last week’s 239-yard rushing performance. Pittsburgh allows 125.3 rushing yards per game (21st), giving Miami a clear tactical edge on the ground.
- – Tua vs. Coverage: Tua Tagovailoa (2,407 yards, 18 TDs) has been efficient, completing 66.9% of his passes. He needs to avoid mistakes against a Steelers defense that, despite giving up yards, is opportunistic with interceptions (Brandin Echols leads with 2 INTs).
When the Steelers Have the Ball
- – Rodgers vs. Secondary: Aaron Rodgers (2,370 yards, 20 TDs) is fresh off a strong performance against Baltimore. He faces a Miami defense allowing 202.6 passing yards per game (12th). The key matchup is DK Metcalf vs. Miami’s corners; Metcalf’s size could be a problem in the red zone.
- – Establishing the Run: Pittsburgh averages only 89.2 rushing yards per game (29th). However, Miami allows 131.9 rushing yards per game (25th). This is a “get right” spot for Jaylen Warren and the Steelers’ ground game.
Over/Under Analysis & Betting Trends
- – Current Total: 42.5
- – The Case for the Under: Both defenses have been playing well recently. Miami has held opponents under 20 points in four straight games, while Pittsburgh’s home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER in eight consecutive contests.
- – Pace of Play: Without T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh may opt for a ball-control offense to protect their defense, shortening the game.
- – Trend: The Under is 7-6 in Steelers games this year and has hit in five of Miami’s last six games.
Best Prop Bets
- De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-130): Achane has scored a touchdown in two straight games and three of his last four. As the focal point of the Dolphins’ offense, especially in the red zone, he is the safest bet to find paydirt.
- De’Von Achane Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115): The Steelers have allowed over 200 rushing yards in their last two games, and they are missing key pieces on the defensive line. Achane has surpassed 90 rushing yards in four consecutive games and is averaging a league-best 5.8 yards per carry.
- Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105): Miami’s defense has recorded an interception in four straight games. While Rodgers has been clean for three games, the law of averages and Miami’s disguised coverages suggest he might put one in harm’s way tonight.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Steelers -3
The Steelers have won 22 of their last 23 Monday home games, a trend that is impossible to ignore.
While the Dolphins are surging with four straight wins, those victories came against inconsistent competition. The Steelers just proved their mettle with a tough road win in Baltimore. Even without T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh’s “next man up” mentality under Mike Tomlin is legendary. Aaron Rodgers is finding his chemistry with DK Metcalf, and Miami’s struggles as a road underdog (failing to cover in 8 straight spots following a win) suggest their streak ends here.
Expect a tight, physical game where Pittsburgh’s home-field advantage and veteran quarterback play make the difference late in the fourth quarter.
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