Week 4 Sunday Football: Full Slate Previews and Best Picks

NFL
September 27, 2025


The Week 4 slate brings actionable signals across the board, and the BUSR NFL Odds sharpen the picture for bettors hunting value. This card features early kickoffs overseas, heavyweight tests for unbeaten teams, and several buy-low spots after noisy Week 3 finales. 

From a market standpoint, divisional familiarity and injury clusters continue to drive line movement, while totals reflect early-season defensive efficiency catching up with inflated scoring expectations. NFL Betting strategies that emphasize trenches, pressure rates, and situational motivation continue to hold up well.

While the headline-grabber is the undefeated showdown in Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the whole Sunday board offers multiple leverage points. Bettors tracking closing-line value should monitor late-week reports on offensive line health, especially with pass-funnel defenses on deck. 

Sunday Night Football still looms as a handle magnet later in the day, yet the morning kickoff overseas and the early window present prime opportunities to get ahead of moves. With that in mind, here’s a concise, data-forward read on each matchup using BUSR’s posted lines.

 

Minnesota VikingsMinnesota Vikings (2-1) at Pittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh Steelers (2-1) 

 

The Minnesota Vikings regain rhythm with Carson Wentz under center and healthier protection in front of him. Christian Darrisaw’s return raised the ceiling for the offense and stabilized an approach built on rhythm throws to multiple levels. The Vikings project to attack a secondary that has leaked explosive plays and to lean on Jordan Mason in early downs when light boxes present. Minnesota’s defense also looks re-centered with Andrew Van Ginkel and Harrison Smith back; the unit generated scores and short fields last week, and that aggressiveness translates well to an international stage where preparation time is limited. With better health and a cleaner pocket, the Vikings carry both the efficiency edge and the game state that fits their play-caller.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ path depends on pass protection that has not held up. The Steelers have struggled to sustain drives behind an offensive line that loses too many reps on the edges, putting Aaron Rodgers into long-yardage snaps where Minnesota’s pressure packages create mistakes. Jaylen Warren has flashed in space, though consistent lanes have been rare, and the Vikings’ front tightened its run fits a week ago. 

Pittsburgh’s defense still plays with pride and tends to fight in the red zone, yet repeated short fields compound quickly in a neutral-site script. With Rodgers’ prior London form trending negative and Minnesota’s form spike tied to health, the number aligns with the on-field gap.

 

Prediction: Line: Vikings – 2.5. Over 41

 

 

 

Philadelphia EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles (3-0) at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) 

 

This shapes up as a pass-lean for the Philadelphia Eagles based on Tampa Bay’s profile. The Buccaneers sit among the league’s strongest run-stuff units with Vita Vea anchoring a front that squeezes interior gaps and forces offenses wide. Philadelphia’s adjustment came at the right time, with Jalen Hurts reestablishing downfield timing and A.J. Brown back to his physical best. 

Saquon Barkley can still influence as a receiver and draw safety attention, yet the cleanest edge comes from attacking Tampa Bay corners that have surrendered catch-and-run windows when the rush fails to land. The Eagles’ defensive front also controls this matchup on the other side, where backup linemen are being asked to hold up across four quarters.

Tampa Bay continues to find late-game answers, although the injury stack is real. The Jets’ win required navigation without three starting linemen and without Mike Evans deep into the second half. Emeka Egbuka’s emergence helps, yet the matchup calls for multiple separators to threaten an Eagles secondary that rallies and tackles well when the rush lands. Baker Mayfield extends plays and will take calculated shots to mid-field voids, and Bucky Irving’s burst can steal chunk gains when the edge softens.

The problem is a lack of down-to-down consistency when Philadelphia heats the pocket. Against this front, missing starters shifts the entire protection plan, and the margin for error at -3.5 disappears quickly if the Eagles’ pass game stays on schedule.

 

Prediction: Buccaneers + 3.5. Over 45.5. 

 

 

 

New Orleans SaintsNew Orleans Saints (0-3) at Buffalo BillsBuffalo Bills (3-0) 

 

The Buffalo Bills’ offensive schedule has been relatively easy, yet the process remains clean. Josh Allen is operating with time and balance, and the Saints’ pass rush has not created many hurry windows through three games. That sets up Allen-to-auxiliary options underneath, with James Cook stressing linebackers on angle and wheel concepts, then explosives materializing once safeties start cheating. 

The Bills’ plan rarely requires miracles when opponents lack disruption; it becomes a matter of stacking routine conversions and finishing red-zone trips with Allen’s legs or high-low concepts to the tight end.

The New Orleans Saints need to shorten the game with Alvin Kamara’s touches and pick their shots with Spencer Rattler off play-action. When the Saints fall behind the chains, giveaways creep in and flip field position. The Bills’ run defense improves when Matt Milano plays, and an interior boost from Ed Oliver turns early-down sets into second-and-long quickly. 

That feeds Buffalo’s pressure menu and increases the probability of turnover. With Seattle providing a template last week, the Saints must avoid the early avalanche. The spread is towering, yet the favorite owns the trench and quarterback edges, and the market has priced New Orleans’ late-time production correctly.

 

Prediction: Bills – 16.5. Total: Over 48

 

 

 

Carolina PanthersCarolina Panthers (1-2) at New England PatriotsNew England Patriots (1-2)

 

The Carolina Panthers arrive off a 30-0 win that masked offensive inefficiency. The Panthers produced limited yardage and modest yards per play against a disengaged opponent, and this week’s pressure forecast rises. New England’s defense sits in the top third in QB pressures, and Bryce Young’s vision and timing issues complicate hot-route execution when protection breaks. 

The Panthers’ run game leans on Chuba Hubbard’s decisiveness, though the Patriots’ front has handled more dynamic backfields already this month. Without clean early-down gains, Carolina asks Young to win on third-and-intermediate into disguised looks.

The New England Patriots’ offense moved the ball in a loss marred by turnovers. Five giveaways, including multiple fumbles, buried a productive day that featured solid efficiency and a run game that tilted once TreVeyon Henderson’s touches increased. 

New England’s path is straightforward: give Drake Maye a stable pocket against a pass rush that has generated limited heat, let Henderson tilt the box count, and avoid self-inflicted wounds in the low red zone. Carolina’s defense has struggled to get off the field without sacks, and the Patriots’ skill mix can string methodical drives that make a 5.5-point spread workable.

 

Prediction: Panthers +5.5. Under  43.5

 

 

 

Washington CommandersWashington Commanders (2-1) at Atlanta FalconsAtlanta Falcons (1-2) 

 

The Washington Commanders’ quarterback question shapes the market but not the core handicap. If Jayden Daniels plays, mobility threatens an aggressive Falcons front; if Marcus Mariota goes, the offense leans on rhythm throws and designed movement. 

Either way, Atlanta’s defense ranks top ten by EPA and has created steady pressure, a profile that punishes backup-heavy plans and quarterbacks working through injury. Washington’s best leverage comes through perimeter matchups if Terry McLaurin is active; otherwise, the intermediate middle becomes crowded and efficiency drops.

The Atlanta Falcons’ offense needs a rebound from Michael Penix Jr., whose Week 3 decisions invited turnovers. Washington’s secondary has been the softer zone within a sturdy structure, which opens a lane for play-action shots and tight end seams if the protection holds. 

Bijan Robinson faces a tough ground matchup against a run defense that has handled feature backs, making his receiving usage a key swing factor. Atlanta’s motivation after a flat effort is real, and the trenches give them a path if Penix avoids the critical errors that flipped last week’s game.

 

Pick: Commanders -1 

 

 

 

Cleveland BrownsCleveland Browns (1-2) at Detroit LionsDetroit Lions (2-1)

 

The Detroit Lions’ offense has exploded the past two weeks, yet this is a step up in class. Cleveland’s defense has erased run games and squeezed explosive passing lanes, with a front that wins without extra rushers. That profile forces Jared Goff into tighter-window throws on long downs, a scenario where pressure disrupts his base and accuracy. 

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can still produce in space, and Amon-Ra St. Brown’s leverage route tree wins against most coverages. However, the Lions’ path looks more methodical than the scoreboard fireworks in recent outings.

The Cleveland Browns’ offense takes on a different shape with Quinshon Judkins available, even against a Detroit front that recently stifled Derrick Henry. Joe Flacco remains calm under fire and will punish single coverage if Jack Conklin returns and the edges settle down. The Browns have outgained opponents on the season and carry a defensive identity that keeps games inside key numbers. 

Detroit’s national-stage win introduces a letdown risk and inflates a number that already leaned high based on team perception. With a multi-layered run plan and high-floor defense, Cleveland plays within the spread and forces a four-quarter script.

 

Prediction: Browns +9. Total: 44.5.

 

 

 

Tennessee TitansTennessee Titans (0-3) at Houston TexansHouston Texans (0-3) 

 

The Houston Texans’ offense has struggled to find rhythm due to offensive line attrition and has been unable to finish drives consistently. C.J. Stroud continues to absorb pressure at an unsustainable rate, and the run game has not provided the relief valve required to keep defenses honest. 

Nico Collins is the clear priority for coverage and still finds windows, yet the overall structure produces few easy yards. Tennessee’s pass rush numbers are modest, which helps, though the Texans’ protection issues have been opponent-agnostic. In a low total with a favorite laying seven, finishing drives without mistakes becomes the entire story.

The Tennessee Titans’ rookie quarterback Cam Ward displays courage and movement skills, and Tony Pollard gives the Titans a perimeter speed element that can dent a defense ranked outside the top quartile against the run. 

The problem has been red-zone execution and penalties that sabotage field position. Houston’s defense creates pressure in neutral situations and can make Ward uncomfortable when behind the sticks. The Titans can cover this number if they protect the football and live in manageable third downs, and that math pushes this toward a tight, field-goal-range result in a game with limited possessions.

 

Pick: Texans -7 under 39.

 

 

 

Los Angeles ChargersLos Angeles Chargers (3-0) at New York GiantsNew York Giants (0-3)

 

The Los Angeles Chargers’ offense is playing to its talent level. Justin Herbert has attacked down the field with conviction, and the addition of speed and separation at receiver has unlocked layered concepts that punish single-high and stress match quarters.

The New York Giants’ defense features edge threats, yet it has leaked yardage at the corner, and recent opponents have found explosives through dictated matchups. Omarion Hampton steps into a favorable run matchup against a Giants front that ranks near the bottom by EPA vs. the rush, giving Los Angeles a balanced approach that travels.

The surprise through three weeks is Los Angeles’ defense holding firm despite injuries. Pressure has arrived on time, and coverage busts have been limited. The Giants’ pass protection remains fragile, with Andrew Thomas working back from injury and a rookie quarterback in Jaxson Dart set to face disguised looks. Cam Skattebo’s energy has sparked drives, yet sustaining offense on schedule remains the central challenge against a top-ten defensive EPA unit. With Jim Harbaugh’s track record in early East Coast kickoffs and the Chargers’ matchup advantages across both lines, the spread sits short of the talent gap.

 

Pick: Chargers -6.5. Over  44.5.

 

 

 

Jacksonville JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at San Francisco 49ersSan Francisco 49ers (3-0) 

 

The San Francisco 49ers’  offense should tick back up with Brock Purdy expected to return, plus potential reinforcements in Jauan Jennings and George Kittle following a stagnant 16-point output against Arizona. Jacksonville’s edge rush is real, yet the 49ers still protect well on the outside, and when Purdy gets to his back foot, he layers throws efficiently to Ricky Pearsall and the backs. 

The run game is the bigger lever: Christian McCaffrey faces a Jaguars front that’s looked middling versus the run and hasn’t been stressed by a back of his caliber yet. If the edges are secured, San Francisco can sequence early-down efficiency into red-zone shots and keep the game in the low-to-mid 20s where their script control shines.

The defensive headline is Nick Bosa’s season-ending ACL, which removes a game-wrecker and simplifies Trevor Lawrence’s reads. Lawrence needs that help; he’s struggled this year, failing to capitalize even against softer secondaries like Carolina and Cincinnati fully. The Jaguars can lean on their backs as rushers and outlet receivers to keep Lawrence out of third-and-long, and the 49ers’ current run metrics sit in the middle of the pack. 

Still, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ operational sloppiness has lingered, from Liam Coen’s sequencing to basics like Travis Hunter’s alignment, and those details swing close games on the road. San Francisco’s short-week lookahead to the Rams is real, but the matchup advantages are still theirs by a field goal.

 

Pick: Jaguars +3

 

 

 

Indianapolis ColtsIndianapolis Colts (3-0) at Los Angeles RamsLos Angeles Rams (2-1) 

 

The Indianapolis Colts continue to cash in on a clear identity: spread the field, lean on Jonathan Taylor’s explosion, and let Daniel Jones stress edges with his legs. Taylor’s form makes him a live Offensive Player of the Year name already, and the Rams’ run defense has carried last season’s vulnerability into pockets of this year, particularly when forced to play light in coverage. 

The Colts’ rebuilt line gets a more challenging pass-rush test here, which means Jones’ pocket management matters more than it did last week. If Indy keeps early downs ahead of the chains, the Rams’ defense can be forced into predictable calls and Taylor becomes the closer.

The Los Angeles Rams’ side swings on interior health. Matthew Stafford can shred zone with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams if he’s kept clean. Still, Los Angeles ended the Eagles game down two guards, and the Colts’ interior duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart punishes thin depth. That also caps Kyren Williams and Blake Corum on inside zone, narrowing Sean McVay’s call sheet if they can’t get gap schemes off the ground. 

The Rams do create heat off the edge, so Indy’s tackles must hold up; otherwise, you’ll see Jones forced into hot throws that invite turnovers. Scheduling is a subtle factor, too, with Los Angeles turning around to face their archrival in four days, which makes catching the +3.5 more attractive than it initially appears.

 

Pick: Colts +3.5

 

 

 

Chicago BearsChicago Bears (1-2) at Las Vegas RaidersLas Vegas Raiders (1-2) 

 

The Chicago Bears’ offense looked fixed because it ran into a Dallas defense that couldn’t cover and couldn’t keep Russell Wilson or Caleb Williams in front. Credit Williams for hitting explosives, including a flea-flicker to Luther Burden, and Ben Johnson’s play design unlocked Rome Odunze downfield. 

Still, the Raiders’ profile is different: the pass rush is legit, and while Las Vegas sits 26th in defensive EPA due to coverage and linebacker issues, it’s at least a unit that can win early downs and force tighter-window throws. The Bears’ improved line helps, but Williams must beat post-snap rotation rather than bank on free runners through busted zones.

The Las Vegas Raiders’ offense is the buy-low half of the handicap. Scoring nine on the Chargers and sputtering until garbage time against Washington hides the context: those are top-half defenses by EPA. Geno Smith is streaky, but he won’t face the same rush rate this week; Chicago has only 38 pressures through three games and has struggled to finish in the pocket. 

That leans to a cleaner day for the Raiders’ protection, with Ashton Jeanty drawing his best runway yet against a Bears run defense ranked 27th. When the ground game shows up, the Raiders’ shot plays become available, and this number has drifted to near pick’em after an overreaction to Chicago’s blowout.

 

Pick: Raiders -1

 

 

 

Baltimore RavensBaltimore Ravens (1-2) at Kansas City ChiefsKansas City Chiefs (1-2) 

 

The Baltimore Ravens’ loss to Detroit featured seven sacks and a rare day where Lamar Jackson’s legs didn’t flip negative plays into explosives. Kansas City Chiefs can replicate parts of that with a pressure count that’s outpaced Detroit’s so far, especially if the Ravens’ protection doesn’t stabilize. The lever here is Derrick Henry: the Chiefs are sitting 30th against the run, and recent tape shows big lanes for backs who hit downhill. 

If Henry gets rolling early, Baltimore can control tempo and limit the volume required from a banged-up receiving corps. A couple of chunk runs plus play-action to Zay Flowers or DeAndre Hopkins is enough to tilt a one-score game.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, continue to live on Patrick Mahomes’ pocket drift and second-reaction throws because the traditional run game doesn’t threaten on schedule. Baltimore’s short-handed front without Justin Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy got pushed around by Detroit; their statuses matter for how much Jackson needs to score. But Kansas City’s pass-catching cupboard remains thin, with Xavier Worthy managing a harness and Tyquan Thornton functioning as the occasional burner rather than a drive-to-drive solution.

Against a Ravens secondary that can still take the ball away, counting on repeated 10-play marches is risky in a near pick’em. Baltimore’s year-over-year rhythm is familiar: 1-2 start, then a statement win. This spot fits that script.

 

Pick: Ravens -2.5, Over 48.5.

 

 

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