Week 4 Thursday Night Football Betting Analysis: Seahawks at Cardinals

NFL
September 24, 2025

Thursday Night Football brings us a divisional matchup with meaningful NFL Betting angles as the Seattle Seahawks travel to State Farm Stadium to face the Arizona Cardinals. NFL Odds from BUSR list the Cardinals as a slight favorite, opening near -1 with a total around 43.5. 

This is a game where both teams come in with momentum questions and divisional urgency, making it a prime spot for bettors to find value. Seattle has looked efficient through two weeks, while Arizona has been unpredictable, sharp one week, shaky the next. Short weeks often magnify flaws, and this matchup will test depth, quarterback consistency, and defensive discipline.

 

Thursday Night Football Matchup Preview

 

For Seattle, Sam Darnold has stabilized the passing game, Cooper Kupp’s return has added a high-volume option, and Kenneth Walker III continues to be a red-zone weapon. Arizona leans heavily on Kyler Murray’s mobility and new playmakers like Marvin Harrison Jr., but inconsistency in execution and defensive gaps remain a concern. 

NFL Betting markets on Thursday games often lean toward home teams due to the condensed week, but divisional familiarity complicates this further. With plenty of player prop opportunities and trends pointing in opposite directions, the Seahawks vs. Cardinals matchup is one of the most intriguing spots of week 4.

 

Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks

 

Seattle enters Thursday Night Football having beaten the Steelers and Saints, improving their record while covering spreads in two of their last three contests. NFL Odds show Seattle as a slight underdog here, a role in which they’ve thrived recently. 

The Seahawks have won each of their last five games as road underdogs, and they’ve covered six straight at State Farm Stadium. That ATS consistency highlights how well this team has matched up with Arizona in recent years, even when their rosters have looked different.

 

Seattle Offensive Analysis

Quarterback Sam Darnold has been the steadying force. Through two games, he’s completing 70.3 percent of his passes for 663 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. His production isn’t built on short passes either; he’s pushing the ball downfield with efficiency. Darnold has topped 240 passing yards in seven of his last eight road starts, and he’s averaging 20+ completions in five of his previous six road appearances. 

He’s also added sneaky value on the ground, hitting 10+ rushing yards in 13 of his last 14 starts as an underdog against NFC opponents. For prop bettors, Darnold’s passing yardage and completions are strong considerations given Arizona’s bottom-tier pass defense.

Seattle’s receiving corps has clicked with Darnold at the helm. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp have combined for 459 yards and remain matchup problems for the Cardinals’ secondary. Kupp in particular has been consistent, clearing 44 receiving yards in nine of his last ten September road appearances, and at least 46 combined yards in nine of his last ten road outings this month. With Toy Horton emerging as a complementary option, Seattle has multiple layers to stress Arizona’s secondary.

On the ground, Kenneth Walker III leads with 163 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Walker has scored in each of his last four games as a road underdog against winning teams, and his red-zone usage makes him one of the more reliable anytime TD props on the slate. Seattle averages 96 rushing yards per game, leaning on Walker to keep balance in the offense.

 

Seahawks Defensive Analysis

Defensively, Seattle has been sound through two weeks, allowing only 15.7 points and 311.7 yards per game. Ernest Jones IV leads the unit with 25 tackles, Byron Murphy II has 2.5 sacks, and Derion Kendrick has two interceptions, tied for the league lead heading into Week 4. 

Notably, Seattle has also produced impact plays on special teams, including both a kickoff return touchdown and a punt return touchdown this season, the only team in the league to do so. They also lead the NFL in first-quarter scoring at 9.3 points per game, a critical angle for bettors eyeing early totals or Q1 props.

Still, Seattle’s Thursday record is worth noting. The Seahawks have lost five of their last six Thursday games, and they’ve failed to cover in their last four Thursday appearances on the West Coast. Short weeks haven’t been kind to this team, but recent dominance against Arizona complicates that angle.

 

Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals

 

The Cardinals enter Thursday Night Football at 2-1, having beaten the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints, and lost to the San Francisco 49ers. They are now preparing for this divisional clash before facing Tennessee.

NFL Odds opened with Arizona as a narrow favorite, but the spread has remained tight due to concerns about consistency. Arizona has won six of its last seven home games, and home teams often carry value on Thursday nights. Still, divisional matchups bring volatility, and the Cardinals haven’t beaten Seattle since 2021.

 

Arizona Offensive Analysis

Kyler Murray remains the focal point of the offense. He’s completing 67.4 percent of passes for 542 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while also contributing with mobility that forces defenses to respect both the pass and run. 

Murray has surpassed 232 passing yards in eight of his last nine games following a road loss, and he’s recorded 21+ completions in 13 of his last 14 home appearances against NFC West opponents. Those trends align well with Seattle’s defensive structure, which bends but forces quarterbacks into checkdowns.

Arizona’s receiving group has evolved with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. combining for 324 yards and two touchdowns. Harrison, the rookie star, has already stretched defenses vertically, while McBride remains Murray’s most reliable chain-mover. Elijah Higgins has chipped in with timely catches, giving Murray another red-zone option. Prop markets highlight Zay Jones, who has cleared 13 receiving yards in eight of his last nine division home games.

The ground game features rookie Trey Benson, who leads with 125 yards on 21 carries. James Conner remains a key veteran option and has been reliable in September home appearances, scoring in seven of his last eight games as a home favorite this month. He’s also cleared 68 rushing yards in seven of his last eight games following a loss and topped 89 combined yards in each of his last four division home games. For bettors, Conner anytime TD props and rushing yard overs remain viable.

 

The Cardinals’ Defensive Edge

Defensively, Arizona has allowed 17 points and 340.7 yards per game. Roquan Smith leads the team with 28 tackles, Calais Campbell has two sacks, and Baron Browning has an interception. However, the defense has struggled late in games, ranking 32nd in fourth-quarter points allowed at only 3.0 per contest. At the same time, the Cardinals are tied for the league lead in third-quarter win percentage at 100 percent, highlighting how they start halves strongly but fade late.

From a betting perspective, Arizona trends strongly at home following losses. They’ve covered in six of their last seven games in that spot, and they’ve won the first half in six of their last seven home contests. Still, they’ve failed to cover four of their previous five September home games as favorites against NFC teams.

 

Thursday Night Football Betting Prediction

 

This Thursday Night Football game presents one of the tightest spreads on the BUSR board, with the Cardinals favored by a single point and a total of 43.5. The Seahawks have owned this matchup recently, covering in six straight games at State Farm Stadium and winning five straight outright as road underdogs.

 

SpreadMoneylineTotal
Seattle Seahawks-1.5 (-110)-122O 43.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals+1.5 (-110)+100U 43.5 (-110)

 

Seattle’s offense under Darnold has been sharp, with reliable weapons and strong first-quarter production. The defense is opportunistic, with Kendrick tied for the league lead in interceptions and Murphy producing pressure up front.

Arizona counters with home-field advantage, a quarterback in Kyler Murray who has been efficient at home, and playmakers in Harrison and McBride who can capitalize on mismatches. Conner’s consistency at State Farm Stadium, combined with Arizona’s strong third-quarter performances, suggests they won’t go quietly. But their late-game struggles and Seattle’s special teams edge tilt the balance toward the visitors.

Total bettors will note that seven of Seattle’s last eight September division games have gone under, while three of the previous four Thursday contests at State Farm Stadium have gone over. The conflicting signals suggest volatility, but with both defenses holding opponents under 20 points per game, the under may carry more weight.

In terms of NFL Betting strategy, Seattle has more value at +1 with a strong chance to win outright. Props on Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown, Darnold passing yards, and Conner rushing totals also offer viable edges.

 

Pick: Seattle Seahawks +1.5, Under 43.5.

 

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