NFL Picks: Week 4 Falcons vs Jaguars
BUSR NFL Lines
Spread: Falcons +3 (-105), Jaguars -3 (-115)
Moneyline: Falcons +131, Jaguars -161
Total: O 43 (-110), U 43 (-110)
Falcons Soaring High
In the Lions game, the Falcons found themselves in a 13-3 deficit at halftime and struggled to make a comeback. Quarterback Desmond Ridder managed 201 passing yards, but the offense couldn’t find its rhythm, producing just three more points in the second half. On the bright side, Bijan Robinson contributed with 33 rush yards, and Kyle Pitts led the receiving corps with 41 yards from five catches.
Interestingly, the Falcons have been favorites in their last 10 games, but their recent track record as underdogs against AFC opponents has been less than stellar. They’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their last four such games and have often fallen behind in the first quarter and first half when facing teams with losing records.
Jaguars As Favorites?
On the other side of the gridiron, the Jacksonville Jaguars started their 2023 campaign with a solid win over the Colts, securing a 31-21 victory. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns in the opener. However, their momentum hit a snag when they faced the formidable Kansas City Chiefs and suffered a 17-9 loss. Wide receiver Christian Kirk shone in that game with 11 catches for 110 yards.
The Jaguars’ most recent contest was a forgettable one as they faced the Houston Texans and were soundly defeated 37-17. Trevor Lawrence put up 279 passing yards, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Texans’ dominance. Travis Etienne added 88 rushing yards, but the Jaguars struggled on third-down conversions and committed two turnovers.
The Jaguars have their own set of challenges, particularly when playing against NFC South opponents. They’ve lost each of their last 10 games against teams from that division and have failed to cover the spread in all of those matchups. Additionally, they’ve faced early-game struggles, often falling behind in the first quarter and first half against NFC South opponents.
I lean towards the Jaguars, but I’m hesitant to commit. Jacksonville has had two weak performances, with the loss to Houston being especially disappointing despite gaining 404 yards and 22 first downs. They’ll need a strong comeback, but I believe they can cover in front of the London audience.
On the other hand, Atlanta struggled against the Lions, managing only 183 yards and 16 first downs. Both teams need improvements, making this a potentially interesting game at Wembley. I will trust BUSR NFL Odds and take the Jaguars to cover the -3 spread.