NFL Picks: Week 4 Patriots vs Cowboys

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In an exciting Week 4 NFL matchup, the New England Patriots will square off against the Dallas Cowboys at the formidable AT&T Stadium. Let’s delve into this game and break down our picks and predictions.

BUSR NFL Lines

Spread: Patriots +7 (-115), Cowboys -7 (-105)

Moneyline: Patriots +244, Cowboys -319

Total: O 43 (-110), U 43 (-110) 

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are on a quest to secure their second consecutive home victory and bolster their season record to 3-1. An impressive streak to note is their nine straight wins at home. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott has been in solid form, completing 67.6% of his passes for 647 yards, along with 3 touchdowns and just 1 interception. The receiving tandem of CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup has been dynamic, combining for 378 receiving yards on 27 catches. Tight end Jake Ferguson has also contributed with 10 receptions. On the ground, the Cowboys are averaging an impressive 147 yards per game, with Tony Pollard leading the way with 264 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Cowboys’ defense has been a force to be reckoned with, allowing a mere 12.7 points and 262 yards per game. Jayron Kearse leads the team with 15 tackles, while Micah Parsons has already racked up 4 sacks, and DaRon Bland has secured 1 interception. The Cowboys have excelled at AT&T Stadium, winning each of their last nine games there. They’ve also been reliable favorites, covering the spread in their last seven games following a loss.

New England Patriots

Meanwhile, the New England Patriots are looking to string together back-to-back wins and bring their record to .500. Their recent road performance has been mixed, having split their last ten away games. 

Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has shown promise, boasting a completion rate of 64.8%, with 748 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. His top targets have been Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry, who have combined for 264 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Mike Gesicki has added 9 receptions to the mix. On the ground, the Patriots are averaging 107 rushing yards per game, with Rhamondre Stevenson leading the way with 134 yards and 1 touchdown.

Defensively, New England has allowed an average of 19.7 points and 270.3 yards per game. Ja’Whaun Bentley leads the team with 21 tackles, while Matthew Judon has been a menace with 4 sacks, and Christian Gonzalez has secured 1 interception. Recent trends show that the favorites have triumphed in each of the Patriots’ last 13 games, while they’ve struggled to cover the spread in their last seven games as underdogs. Interestingly, the last five games where the Patriots were road underdogs have all exceeded the total points line.

Prediction

In this matchup, the Dallas Cowboys undeniably boast more overall talent, and their home field advantage is a significant factor. The Cowboys will also be fueled by a desire to bounce back from their loss to the Cardinals. However, the New England Patriots, despite concerns about their sluggish offense, are a well-coached team with one of the better defenses in the league. They rank fifth in total defense, fifth in passing defense, and 11th in scoring defense. This suggests that the Patriots have the capability to slow down the game.

With the Patriots receiving a full touchdown as road underdogs (+7 on BUSR NFL Odds), it presents an enticing betting opportunity. Expect a hard-fought and competitive contest. Ultimately, we believe the Patriots have the potential to keep this game close or even pull off an upset. Therefore, our prediction is to take the New England Patriots and the points. This matchup has the makings of a closely contested battle.