Thursday Night Football Odds for Week 2: Commanders at Packers
Week 2 of the NFL schedule kicks off under the lights of Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field as the Washington Commanders (1-0) visit the Green Bay Packers (1-0) on Thursday, Sept. 11, at 8:15 p.m. ET.
BUSR currently lists the Packers as 3.5-point favorites (-110), with the Commanders priced at +3.5 (-110). The total sits at 48 (-110), while the moneyline shows Green Bay -189 and Washington +152.
NFL Odds have already moved after Green Bay’s dominant opener, with the spread climbing from -2.5 to -3.5 in the days following Week 1. For NFL Betting players, this number is crucial, since three is the primary key figure in football wagering.
Background matters here. Week 2 is historically known as “Overreaction Week,” when markets and bettors lean heavily on opening-week results. Last year, the Patriots upset the Bengals in Week 1 only to regress the following week.
The New Orleans Saints once opened with a 47-10 win before crashing back to reality. Washington itself was blown out in Tampa Bay in a Week 2 game after optimism from Week 1. This season, the Packers fit the mold of the potential overreaction team after a convincing victory over the Detroit Lions. Their Week 1 performance was strong, but the Lions entered with roster problems that masked true context.
Washington Commanders: Balanced Attack and Defensive Stoutness
Washington enters Lambeau with a mix of continuity and upside. The Commanders did not make a coordinator change, and they shored up protection with the addition of Laremy Tunsil, one of the few tackles capable of slowing elite edge rushers like Micah Parsons. That single acquisition could be decisive, because Green Bay’s pass rush dismantled Detroit’s line in Week 1. Jared Goff had no escape route, but Jayden Daniels is a very different type of quarterback.
Daniels’ athleticism alters the matchup in ways NFL Odds may not fully capture. Against the New York Giants, he repeatedly turned collapsed pockets into positive gains, using his legs to escape pressure and extend drives. Goff is a stationary target; Daniels can escape, slide outside the pocket, and hit throws on the move. That dimension means Green Bay cannot simply rely on its Week 1 rush plan to replicate results. Every blitz angle risks a broken play turning into a first down.
The Commander’s Offensive Plan
Washington’s offense is more trustworthy than Detroit’s current unit. Where the Lions lost two interior linemen and a play-caller, the Commanders kept their system intact. The passing game will test Green Bay vertically and horizontally, while Daniels’ scrambling ability stretches linebackers and safeties who overcommit.
Early down balance is key: Washington is stout enough to keep Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason from dominating time of possession, but also creative enough to generate chunk plays without exposing Daniels to unnecessary hits.
Washington Defensive Strategy
On defense, Washington showed Week 1 discipline by bottling up the Giants’ attempts at explosive runs. They tackled well in space and forced New York into long-yardage downs. The Commanders’ defensive front has been retooled since last year’s trade deadline and is far more coordinated. They limited Tyrone Tracy’s effectiveness in Week 1, and while Josh Jacobs is a more polished back, Washington’s interior run defense can keep him under control.
The secondary is improved, too. Miscommunication that plagued them in 2023 has been cleaned up, and the addition of more rangy defenders means they can disguise coverages and bait quarterbacks into risky throws.
For Daniels, the formula is clear: use his legs to keep the chains moving, trust Tunsil to control the blindside, and let the defense turn this game into a grind where one turnover decides it. In a spread locked on the key number, Washington’s ability to shorten the game and force Green Bay into tight throws is valuable.
Green Bay Packers: Coming Off a Blowout, But Facing a Real Test
Green Bay looked like a complete team in Week 1. The offense routinely moved the ball against Detroit, a unit expected to improve with Aidan Hutchinson healthy. Jordan Love played within the system, and Josh Jacobs ran with authority. They strung together drives, scored in every quarter, and never looked threatened. It was the kind of performance that boosted public confidence and drove NFL Odds up by a whole point.
But the Lions weren’t the Commanders. Detroit’s protection issues and coordinator changes left Goff without answers. Green Bay’s front, boosted by Parsons, attacked relentlessly and erased Detroit’s rhythm. Against Washington, that advantage is not as secure. Tunsil anchors the line, Daniels can escape, and the Commanders’ scheme is built for improvisation. That means Green Bay will need to lean on its offense to carry more of the weight.
Will Green Bay Pack a Different Offensive Way?
The Packers’ strength in Week 1 was balance. Jacobs carried efficiently, setting up play-action and giving Love clean pockets. That may not repeat. Washington excels at stuffing early-down runs, and without consistent yardage on first down, Love faces more second-and-long situations. Washington’s secondary, now sharper and more physical, can collapse on short throws and dare Green Bay to beat them downfield. That’s a more challenging ask when Matthew Golden isn’t fully integrated into the system.
Love’s limitations are real in this matchup. Without run-game support, he must deliver accurate passes under pressure into small windows. The Commanders’ defense thrives in exactly that environment, forcing checkdowns and creating chances for turnovers. The Packers will try to counter with screens, quick slants, and misdirection runs, but if Washington contains Jacobs early, Green Bay could spend long stretches punting from midfield.
Could Daniels Be a Problem for the Green Bay Defensive Line?
Defensively, Green Bay cannot expect Daniels to stand in the pocket like Goff. Containment will be the buzzword, keeping him in the pocket and preventing scrambles that extend drives. If Parsons and company over-pursue, Daniels will punish them.
If they play disciplined rush lanes, the coverage must hold up long enough to disrupt Washington’s rhythm. That tension is the heart of this game: Green Bay’s rush versus Washington’s mobile quarterback. It’s also the reason why BUSR/NFL Betting line movers have not pushed the line higher than -3.5.
Prediction and Best Bet
This game profiles as a one-score outcome. Green Bay’s Week 1 performance inflated their stock, moving the line from -2.5 to -3.5. That’s classic Overreaction Week movement, where bettors lean too heavily on small sample results. Washington is better than Detroit, and Daniels’ dual-threat ability erases many of the advantages Green Bay leveraged last week. BUSR’s current line gives bettors the critical hook at +3.5, making the Commanders the more valuable side.
Best Bet
Commanders +3.5 (-110). Washington’s defense is built to stuff Jacobs; their protection with Tunsil neutralizes Parsons, and Daniels’ legs tilt downs in their favor. That combination makes the hook too valuable to pass.
Moneyline Lean
Commanders +152. Thursday Night Football odds imply around a 38% win probability for Washington. With a total of 48 and a projected close game, that probability feels light. A sprinkle on the moneyline is justified, especially if you believe Daniels’ improvisation can swing two drives into points.
Total
Under 48 (-110). Prime-time overs often attract public action, but with both defenses capable of controlling early downs and quarterbacks under pressure, the script leans toward a mid-40s final. Look for outcomes like 24-23 or 23-20, which cash Washington +3.5 and the under.
Projected Score
Packers 24, Commanders 23. Green Bay squeaks out a win, but Washington covers the spread and keeps the game inside the total. For NFL Betting players, the best value is taking the Commanders with the points at BUSR, with a small moneyline position to capture the upset potential.
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