Week 3 Thursday Night Football: Dolphins vs Bills
Week 3 of the NFL season delivers a pivotal AFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football, with the Miami Dolphins visiting the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. For NFL Betting purposes, this matchup carries weight in both divisional races and futures markets.
BUSR lists the Bills as 13-point home favorites with the total at 47, reflecting a market expectation of Buffalo control against a Miami team riding a three-game skid. With NFL Odds heavily tilted, bettors must weigh whether Buffalo can maintain its early dominance or if Miami can halt its slide and cover as a sizable underdog.
Miami enters winless, having dropped games to the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots while allowing over 30 points per contest. Buffalo, by contrast, sits atop the AFC East with wins over the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets, extending a trend of consistent home dominance.
The Bills have won 12 of their last 15 regular-season games and remain particularly strong at Highmark, where they’ve beaten opponents on losing streaks in 14 straight. For the Dolphins, the challenge is not only slowing Josh Allen but also proving their defense can withstand an offense that averages 166 rushing yards per game while still leaning on Allen’s dynamic playmaking.
Miami Dolphins: Offense Must Carry the Load
Miami’s offense has not translated its talent into consistent results. Tua Tagovailoa owns a completion rate of 72.7 percent through two weeks, with 429 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. His efficiency hides struggles under pressure, where turnovers have killed drives. Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane account for most of the explosive plays, combining for 261 receiving yards and two scores. Jaylen Waddle has nine receptions but has yet to find the end zone, limiting Miami’s balance in the passing attack.
The ground game has been pedestrian, averaging 69.5 yards per contest. Achane leads with 85 yards on 18 carries, but Miami has lacked sustained push up front. On the road against Buffalo’s physical defensive line, that absence of trench control is magnified.
Player props reflect reliance on skill talent: Hill has scored in six straight road night games against winning teams and logged 77 or more receiving yards in seven of his last eight September appearances as a road underdog. Achane has topped 120 total yards in each of his last three games in similar underdog spots on the East Coast.
Could the Dolphins’ Defense Hold the Bills?
Defensively, Miami has been a liability, surrendering 33 points and 375.5 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks leads the unit with 22 tackles, but lapses in run fits and inconsistent coverage have kept the group on its heels. Bradley Chubb’s two sacks provide flashes, while Rasul Douglas has two pass breakups, yet the defense has not stopped even average opponents. Against Josh Allen, those weaknesses present a major problem.
For Miami to cover or pull the upset, their stars must hit ceiling outcomes. Hill has consistently produced against top competition, and his speed remains the ultimate equalizer. Achane’s ability to create explosive yardage from limited touches provides hope if Buffalo overcommits to coverage. If Ben Johnson’s system can help Tua release quicker, the Dolphins might bypass Buffalo’s pass rush and find rhythm. Miami’s historical success in Week 3 games against Buffalo (five wins in the last six) is another angle bettors may consider.
Buffalo Bills: Balanced and Deep
Buffalo’s 2-0 start has been driven by balance. Allen has completed 66.2 percent of his throws for 542 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. The addition of rookie Keon Coleman and the emergence of Joshua Palmer (combined 246 yards and a touchdown) give him reliable options beyond Dalton Kincaid, who has eight receptions. Curtis Samuel continues to provide hybrid value, with at least 22 scrimmage yards in nine of his last ten September home games.
The rushing attack has been elite. James Cook ranks tied for first in rushing touchdowns with three and already has 176 yards through two games. Buffalo as a team averages 166 rushing yards per outing, opening up play-action for Allen. Player prop trends favor Cook, who has scored in seven straight games as a favorite against AFC opponents.
Defensively, the Bills have allowed 25 points and 293 yards per game, a strong start against playoff-caliber opponents. Christian Benford leads the team with 11 tackles, DaQuan Jones has notched a sack, and Greg Rousseau continues to disrupt passing lanes. Josh Allen’s legs also remain a weapon; he has recorded 35 or more rushing yards in four straight September games as a home favorite against AFC East rivals.
Buffalo’s case is built on consistency and matchup leverage. The Bills’ rushing attack with Cook punishes weak run fits, which Miami has shown through two weeks. Allen’s ability to extend plays creates additional strain on a defense that has not forced turnovers. At home, where Buffalo thrives, the Bills’ blend of offensive depth and defensive discipline sets them apart. Miami’s offensive line cannot match Buffalo’s front seven, and Tagovailoa has been turnover-prone under pressure.
Prediction and Picks
On paper, Buffalo is positioned to dominate. The Dolphins’ defense has been porous, allowing quarterbacks like Daniel Jones and rookie Drake Maye to move the ball. Facing Allen in primetime is a steeper climb.
The Bills’ rushing edge with Cook, combined with Allen’s composure and home-field history, points to sustained drives and eventual separation. Miami’s offense may produce sporadic fireworks through Hill and Achane, but sustained scoring is unlikely without defensive stops.
Given recent form and betting trends, Buffalo covering the 12.5-point line is the more reliable side despite the risk of laying double digits on a short week. Miami has failed in these spots repeatedly, while Buffalo has delivered in division games at home.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Pick: Buffalo -13 at BUSR
Buffalo should extend its home winning streak and exploit Miami’s defensive flaws in a matchup that could get lopsided quickly on Thursday Night Football.
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