NFL Betting: Week 7 Thursday Night Football, Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Week 7 of the NFL season brings a divisional showdown to primetime as the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cincinnati Bengals under the lights at Paycor Stadium for Thursday Night Football. The AFC North rivalry carries major implications for both teams’ playoff hopes and sets up a strong opportunity for bettors eyeing the latest NFL Odds and NFL Betting trends.
According to the BUSR, the Steelers enter as -5.5 favorites with the over/under set at 41.5 total points. Pittsburgh has been reliable in October games, especially within the division, while Cincinnati aims to stop a skid that has seen its offense stall in recent weeks. Below, we break down both sides, recent trends, and key betting angles to identify the best NFL Lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter Week 7 in strong form, having won three straight games after an inconsistent start to the season. They opened the year with a 34-32 road win over the New York Jets, then dropped a 31-17 contest to the Seattle Seahawks before rebounding with consecutive victories over the New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, and Cleveland Browns.
Last week’s 23-9 victory over Cleveland highlighted what has been the backbone of this team: defense and efficiency. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers turned in a steady performance, completing 21-of-30 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Jaylen Warren added 52 yards on 11 carries, and wide receiver DK Metcalf hauled in four receptions for 95 yards and a score.
An Offensive Made of Steel
The Steelers’ offense has shown moments of balance, particularly when Rodgers has time to operate off play action. However, third-down conversions remain a concern. Pittsburgh went just 5-for-13 on third downs last week and 4-for-10 in their previous win over Minnesota. The offensive line remains inconsistent, occasionally stalling drives with penalties and poor protection.
Defensively Speaking
On the other hand, the Steelers’ defense has been elite. In the win over the Browns, they allowed only 248 total yards and limited Cleveland to 3.3 yards per play. The pass rush generated constant pressure, forcing two interceptions and controlling time of possession. This unit has been among the best in situational defense, particularly on third down, where opponents have struggled to sustain drives.
Pittsburgh’s defensive success has been matched by their ability to capitalize on field position. Over the past three weeks, they’ve forced seven turnovers while allowing just two touchdowns. Their secondary, led by veteran playmakers, has handled high-volume passing attacks efficiently.
Historically, the Steelers have dominated Week 7 matchups, particularly against Cincinnati. They’ve won nine straight Week 7 games against the Bengals, and they’ve covered the spread in eight of their last nine October games versus AFC North opponents. The team also tends to start fast against division rivals, scoring on their opening drive in each of their previous three matchups.
Despite a few offensive inconsistencies, the Steelers’ formula is clear: control the clock, minimize turnovers, and let the defense dictate tempo. That’s been enough to keep them in the playoff mix, and it’s a reliable setup for bettors leaning toward the favorite in this matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have endured a frustrating start to their 2025 campaign. After opening with two close wins, beating the Browns in Week 1 and edging the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, they’ve dropped four of their last five contests. Losses to the Vikings, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers have exposed issues across both sides of the ball, particularly with turnovers and offensive inconsistency.
Bengals to Face Their Struggles
In last week’s 27-18 loss to Green Bay, Cincinnati’s offense sputtered early, falling behind 10-0 at halftime. Quarterback Joe Flacco finished the day 29-of-45 for 219 yards and two touchdowns, but the Bengals managed only 268 total yards and 4.3 yards per play. Their run game continued to struggle as Chase Brown led the team with just 42 yards on nine carries.
The one bright spot remains Ja’Marr Chase, who caught 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown in the loss. His chemistry with Flacco has kept the offense afloat, but without a consistent rushing attack, defenses have been able to key in on Cincinnati’s top receiver.
Turnovers have plagued the Bengals’ offense all season. In their loss to the Lions, they threw three interceptions and went 4-of-11 on third downs, while the defense allowed 365 yards and 23 first downs. The pattern continued against Green Bay, as Cincinnati surrendered 409 total yards and struggled to get off the field defensively.
Our Home, Our Fortress
Defensively, the Bengals have yet to find the rhythm that carried them to playoff contention in previous seasons. They’ve been prone to giving up big plays, particularly in the passing game. The pass rush has underperformed, and their inability to stop the run in key moments has made it challenging to hold leads late in games.
Still, Cincinnati tends to start games aggressively at home. The Bengals have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight games against AFC North opponents, showing the ability to open strong before fading in the second half. However, they’ve lost the first half in each of their last five games as underdogs, suggesting they struggle to maintain momentum once opponents adjust.
When looking at historical trends, Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games following a road loss. Additionally, they’ve dropped seven of their last eight games after losing on the road, signaling trouble with consistency when facing quick turnarounds or emotional letdowns.
The Bengals’ offense has also failed to score more than 19 points in four of six games this year, and their lack of balance makes them an unreliable side in NFL Betting markets against stronger defensive teams like Pittsburgh.
Game Betting Analysis
Historically, this rivalry has leaned heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor, especially in divisional and mid-season matchups. The Steelers have covered in eight of their last nine October games against AFC North opponents, and they’ve been dominant in Week 7, winning nine straight matchups against Cincinnati.
For bettors targeting totals, Paycor Stadium trends lean toward higher-scoring outcomes. Eight of the Bengals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line, driven by their tendency to play catch-up in the second half. However, the Steelers have been a strong UNDER team on the road in October; 19 of their last 22 road games in that month have stayed below the number.
The underdog angle is also interesting here. The underdog has won three of the Steelers’ last four Week 7 games and covered in each of the previous four, but with Pittsburgh favored by less than a touchdown and trending upward, that streak could be in jeopardy.
Both teams enter this matchup on opposite trajectories. Pittsburgh has found rhythm behind a surging defense and efficient quarterback play, while Cincinnati continues to search for stability on offense. The Bengals’ recent struggles against teams with winning records make it difficult to back them here, even with home-field advantage.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-110)
The Steelers’ combination of a veteran quarterback, efficient red-zone execution, and elite defense provides the edge here. They’ve been consistent against division opponents, winning three straight and covering in eight of their last nine October games versus the AFC North.
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