NFL Week 14 Best Bets: Market Overreactions to Fade
We break down the NFC South clash between the Saints and Buccaneers and the AFC East rivalry featuring the Jets and Dolphins in NFL Week 14 Bets.
Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Analysis
Latest Betting Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total
| BUSR | Saints | Buccaneers |
| Spread | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +340 | -461 |
| Total | O 41.5 (-110) | U 41.5 (-110) |
💡 Pro Tip: Before you bet on any NFL game this week, boost your bankroll with the $1,500 + 25 spins new-player bonus.
New Orleans Saints Overview, Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – The Saints’ record stands at 2–10 entering Week 14.
- – New Orleans has been eliminated from playoff contention for the fifth consecutive season.
- – They lost their Week 8 meeting against Tampa Bay.
ATS Trends
- – New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in their last seven straight head-to-head meetings against Tampa Bay.
- – The Saints are currently 2-9-0 ATS in the 2025 season, one of the worst ATS records in the league.
Key Injuries & Impact
- – WR Chris Olave (Back).
- – RB Alvin Kamara (Knee/Ankle).
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Weakness: The offense ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring, 15.0 points per game (31st of 32 in 2025).
- – Weakness: Quarterback play has led to a poor -5 turnover ratio (T-27th of 32).
- – Strength: The Saints’ defense ranks 12th in the league in Yards Allowed Per Game.
- – Strength: The defense ranks 11th in the league in Defensive Rushing DVOA.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – The Buccaneers are in first place in the NFC South (7-5).
- – The Buccaneers are 5-3 in the NFC since the start of the 2025 season.
ATS Trends
- – Tampa Bay is 7-5 ATS in the 2025 season.
- – They are 3-2 ATS when playing at home this season.
Key Injuries
- – WR Mike Evans (IR/DFR): Placed on Injured Reserve. Evans leads the team in receiving yards.
- – T Tristan Wirfs (Oblique).
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Strength: The Buccaneers defense has generated a +9 turnover ratio (T-3rd of 32 in 2025).
- – Strength: The offense is efficient on the ground, averaging 4.1 rushing yards per attempt.
- – Weakness: The Buccaneers are allowing 25.1 ppg. (23rd of 32 in 2025).
- – Weakness: Tampa Bay’s defense allows 2662 passing yards.
Head-to-Head History
- – Last 5 Meetings: Tampa Bay has won four of the last five games.
- – Trends: The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between them.
Matchup Breakdown – Offense vs Defense
When the Saints Have the Ball
- – OL vs DL Pass Rush Crisis: Allowed 32 sacks. Their passing offense ranks 26th in Passing DVOA.
- – Targeting the Secondary: WR Chris Olave is the primary threat (115 targets), if he plays.
When the Buccaneers Have the Ball
- – The Saints’ defense is stout against the run (11th in Defensive Rushing DVOA).
- – RB Rachaad White is the primary focus against a Saints rush defense ranked 21st in yards allowed.
Over/Under Analysis & Betting Trends
- – Buccaneers Scoring: Tampa Bay is scoring an average of 23.3 points per game.
- – New Orleans is averaging 15.0 points per game.
- – The strong historical trend toward the Under in this matchup is reinforced by the Saints’ struggling offense.
Best NFL Prop Bets
- – Alternate Total: Under 41.5: Dominant Under trend in this rivalry.
- – Anytime TD Scorer: Rachaad White: White has been the Buccaneers’ leading scorer and will see an increased workload with Mike Evans out.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Under 41.5
Why:
- – Significant injuries on both offenses (Evans, Kamara, Olave) point toward a low-scoring affair.
- – The historical trend of Under-hitting in this rivalry is too strong to ignore.
Jets vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis
Latest Betting Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total
| BUSR | Jets | Dolphins |
| Spread | +3.0 (-120) | -3.0 (+100) |
| Moneyline | +134 | -165 |
| Total | O 41.5 (-110) | U 41.5 (-110) |
New York Jets Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – The Jets hold a 3–9 record (4th in the AFC East) entering Week 14.
- – The team ended a two-game losing streak with a Week 13 victory.
ATS Trends
- – The Jets are 4-8 ATS in the 2025 season.
- – They are 0-3 ATS in AFC East divisional games this season.
Key Injuries & Impact
- – S. Tony Adams (Groin).
- – Edge Jermaine Johnson II (Ankle).
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Strength: The Jets’ defense ranks 17th in the league in points allowed (26.3 points per game allowed).
- – Strength: Their rushing defense is a key factor, allowing only 4.3 yards per rush attempt.
- – Weakness: The team has a league-worst -12 turnover ratio (31st of 32 in 2025).
Miami Dolphins Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – The Dolphins are 5–7 (3rd AFC East).
- – They have won their last three games entering Week 14.
ATS Trends
- – Miami is 5-7 ATS in the 2025 season.
- – They are 2-2 ATS in AFC East divisional games.
Key Injuries
- – OL Aaron Brewer (ankle/neck/knee)
- – DB Elijah Campbell (ankle)
- – TE Darren Waller (rest)
Strengths & Weaknesses
- – Strength: The Dolphins’ offense is fast-paced, averaging 5.2 yards per play.
- – Strength: The team is efficient on third down, converting 37.4% of attempts.
- – Weakness: The defense is struggling, allowing 23.8 points per game (19th of 32 in 2025).
- – Weakness: The team’s -4 turnover ratio is below average (T-24th of 32 in 2025).
Head-to-Head History
- – All-time series: Dolphins lead 62-57-1
- – Last 5 seasons (2020–2025): Dolphins lead 7-2
- – Last meeting: Dolphins 27–21 Jets — Sept. 29, 2025 (Miami Gardens)
Matchup Breakdown – Offense vs Defense
When the Jets Have the Ball
- – Sack & Turnover Crisis: The Jets have allowed 41 sacks and hold a league-worst -12 Turnover Ratio.
- – Ground Game Focus: They rely heavily on RB Breece Hall (834 yds).
- – Dolphins Run D: The Dolphins’ run defense is ranked 29th (4th-worst in the NFL).
When the Dolphins Have the Ball
- – They will try to use RB De’Von Achane (1,034 yds, 5.6 YPC).
- – Despite Red Zone inefficiency, the Dolphins’ offense has a high season RZ TD rate (52.38%) but has struggled in recent weeks.
Over/Under Analysis & Betting Trends
- – Scoring Pace Trends: The Dolphins’ offense tends to produce high totals, but the absence of Tyreek Hill and the strength of the Jets’ defense push the total down to a low 41.5.
- – Team Totals: The Jets are only averaging 20.5 points per game (25th of 32 in 2025).
Best NFL Prop Bets
- – Breece Hall Over rushing yards: Struggling quarterback play, and the volume of his rushing attempts (336), a strong workload is expected.
- – Alternate Spread: Dolphins -6.5: Miami won the first meeting by 21 points. This alternate line provides a high-value pick.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.0
Why:
- – The Miami Dolphins‘ offensive efficiency is superior to the Jets’, despite key injuries.
- – The New York Jets‘ league-worst -12 turnover ratio is highly exploitable, especially on the road.
How & Where to Bet NFL Online. Why BUSR is the Go-To
Ready to bet on the NFL Week 14 Sunday Games? You need a sportsbook that’s reliable, easy to use, and packed with value. That’s where BUSR comes in.
We make it incredibly simple to get started with online football betting. Our sign-up process is quick and hassle-free, bringing you into the action in minutes. We offer fast and secure payouts, so you can trust that your winnings will be in your account when you want them.
At BUSR, we pride ourselves on having deep sportsbook coverage for all sports, not just the NFL. But for football fans, our platform is a paradise. We offer extensive NFL betting options, from spreads and moneylines to player props and futures. Plus, our 100% welcome bonus of up to $ 1,500 + 25 free spins and our refer a friend program get you into the live action.
As we celebrate 10 years of excellence, we’re confident in saying we are one of the best NFL betting sites in the U.S. Our decade of experience has built a platform you can trust, providing a premier online sports betting experience for everyone from the casual Sunday viewer to the serious handicapper.
Join the BUSR Experience. Stream LIVE all major sport leagues, enjoy live in-game moments with live betting, exclusive team props, and season futures. You control your winnings with our new Early Cash-Out option, no need to wait for game endings. Enjoy 24-hour payouts, dive into over 1,000 casino games, and access to exclusive lines and boosted odds.Score up to $1,500
on your first deposit100% Welcome Bonus + 25 Casino Spins
