Super Bowl 2026 Odds & Best Prop Bets
Get the Best Bets on Super Bowl 60 props involving players, scoring, MVP, coin toss, and more
The 2025-26 NFL season has defied every preseason projection, culminating in a Super Bowl LX matchup at Levi’s Stadium that almost no one saw coming. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots battle for the Lombardi Trophy on February 8, 2026.
Game Odds & Market Movement
The Seahawks enter as the clear favorite, though the market has held steady despite New England’s gritty postseason run.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline (ML) | Total (Over/Under) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | -5 (-110) | -248 | O 46 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | +5 (-110) | +196 | U 46 (-110) |
Market Pulse: Seattle opened as 5-point favorites. While the Seahawks’ offense looked lethal in the NFC title game, the Patriots struggled to find rhythm in the snowy AFC Championship. Consequently, the total has dropped from an opening of 46.5 to 45.5.
Historical Trends to Watch
- The Underdog Factor: Since 2000, favorites of 5 points or more are just 1-10 Against the Spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl.
- The Brady Hangover: This is the first time since 2001 that the Patriots are Super Bowl underdogs. They are 0-7 Straight Up (SU) in their last seven games as underdogs without Tom Brady.
- The Favorite’s Path: History shows that when favorites go 6-0 SU during the Divisional and Conference rounds (as they did this year), the favorite has won the Super Bowl in all three previous instances (1973, 1988, 2004).
Quarterback Breakdown: Maye vs. Darnold
Drake Maye (NE)
The Patriots’ rookie sensation led the NFL in completion percentage (72%) but faces a relentless Seattle pass rush.
| Prop | Analysis |
| Pass Yards | Suppressed by snow in the AFC title game; season avg is 258.5. |
| Pass TDs | Over is +122; Maye has 31 TDs on the year. |
| Rush Yards | Best Bet. Maye is averaging 47 rushing yards per game in the postseason. |
| Interceptions | Over (-140) reflects Seattle’s ball-hawking secondary. |
Sam Darnold (SEA)
Darnold enters his first Super Bowl after a career-best redemption season (4,048 yards, 25 TDs).
| Prop | Analysis |
| Pass Yards | Under (-113) is popular; NE allows just 200.8 passing yards/game. |
| Pass TDs | Over (-122) reflects Seattle’s red-zone efficiency. |
| Interceptions | Over (-142) is heavily juiced; Darnold had 14 picks this season. |
| Rush Yards | Under (-120) is the sharp play; Darnold is rarely used as a runner. |
Skill Position Matchups
Seahawks Receiving Corps: The JSN Show
With DK Metcalf out of the picture, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has blossomed into the NFL’s leading receiver (1,793 yards).
- JSN Receiving Yards:5 (Over/Under -112)
- Receptions:5 (Over -147)
- The Shadow: All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez is expected to shadow JSN. If Gonzalez cancels him out, look for Cooper Kupp (O/U 34.5 yards) to become the primary safety valve.
Patriots Backfield: Stevenson vs. The #1 Run Defense
Rhamondre Stevenson is the engine of the NE offense, but he faces a Seattle unit that ranks #1 in rushing defense DVOA.
- Rushing Yards:5 (Over -112 / Under -113)
- Receptions:5 (Over +125 / Under -165)
- The Trend: Stevenson averaged just 3.3 YPC against top-10 defenses this year. Look for him to be more active in the screen game than in the inside zones.
First Touchdown Scorer Odds
Who will break the ice? Here are the top players to be the possible Scorer for the First Touchdown.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+600): The favorite. JSN has scored in every playoff game this year.
- Kenneth Walker III (+416): Seattle’s primary goal-line threat with Zach Charbonnet sidelined.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (+800): If New England strikes first, it almost certainly goes through Stevenson.
- Hunter Henry (+1500): The “Sharp” longshot. Henry led the Patriots in TD catches (7).
Super Bowl MVP Favorites
The following Quarterbacks are in the scope as the Super Bowl MVP Favorites
- Sam Darnold (+120): The chalk pick. If Seattle covers, the QB usually wins.
- Drake Maye (+236): Elite value if you believe in the New England upset.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550): The best non-QB bet given his league-leading yardage.
- Kenneth Walker III (+650): Expected to see 20+ touches with a thinned-out backfield.
Special Props
- National Anthem: Charlie Puth. The line is set at 5 seconds.
- Gatorade Color: Orange (+300) is the favorite; Yellow/Green (+110) and Blue (+275) follow.
- Coin Toss: Heads (-102) vs. Tails (-102). Fun Fact: The toss winner has lost 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls.
Betting Outlook
Both teams are ATS monsters (Patriots 14-6, Seahawks 14-5). While Seattle has the “Redemption” narrative with Darnold and JSN, the Patriots’ defense has allowed just 26 points total this postseason. If New England can pressure Darnold early (where he ranks 22nd in EPA/dropback), the Under 45.5 and Patriots +5 become the primary targets for bettors looking for value.
Will the Underdog Bark?
Super Bowl LX is more than just a championship; it’s a collision of the NFL’s two most improbable success stories. Will Sam Darnold complete the ultimate redemption arc by lifting the Lombardi Trophy, or will Drake Maye’s rookie magic prove that New England’s dynasty was never truly dead, just hibernating?
With a tight 5-point spread and historical trends favoring the underdog, every yard counts. Whether you’re backing the Seahawks’ high-octane air attack or the Patriots’ lockdown grit, one thing is certain: in Santa Clara, expect the unexpected.
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The Super Bowl LX is more than just a game; it’s a collision of two different philosophies and two legendary franchises. Will Darnold and the Seahawks take the Lombardi Trophy to Seattle?
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