NFL Betting Preview: Week 1 Odds Worth Jumping On

NEWSNFL
July 28, 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Early Week 1 Odds Worth Jumping On

 

The post-All-Star break lull in the sports calendar is the perfect time to evaluate Week 1 NFL Odds and identify high-value wagers before public action shifts the lines. With NFL Betting markets still relatively quiet and the NFL Draft in the rearview, sharper bettors can spot soft numbers that are likely to move before kickoff. 

These early projections, based on roster developments, coaching changes, and public perception, highlight four Week 1 games where action is likely to swing the lines.

 

Texans (+125) at Rams (-161)

 

The Los Angeles Rams‘ defense ended last season on a tear, holding opponents to single digits in four of their previous six contests, including a playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings, where Minnesota scored only nine points. Los Angeles boasts a young, talented defensive front that is poised to take another step forward. Houston Texans’ offensive line, meanwhile, enters 2025 in disarray after the team traded away its starting left tackle in the offseason. 

That weakness up front presents a major concern as C.J. Stroud prepares to lead an offense built around two rookie wide receivers.

Matthew Stafford should have ample time to dissect Houston’s defense, and the addition of Davante Adams to pair with Puka Nacua gives Los Angeles one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL. 

The Texans will have their hands full on both sides of the ball. Unless their rookies hit the ground running and the offensive line can protect Stroud, this matchup heavily favors the Rams. The line is currently floating between -2.5 and -3 for Los Angeles, but sharp movement to -3.5 or higher seems likely by kickoff.

 

Steelers (-165) at Jets (+129)

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter Week 1 as a three-point road favorite over the New York Jets, but that line may not hold. For a team to be favored by a whole field goal on the road in Week 1, there needs to be overwhelming confidence in the favorite or total distrust in the underdog. 

Neither is the case here. While Mike Tomlin remains one of the league’s most consistent coaches and the Steelers’ defense is among the NFL’s best, the Jets are hardly the bottom-feeder that this spread implies.

New York still boasts a strong defensive core and enters 2025 healthier and more stable than last season. After a quarterback swap in the offseason, both the Jets and Steelers found themselves reshuffling under center, and some believe each team would have preferred Justin Fields. 

With Aaron Glenn stepping in as head coach and bringing a fresh approach, the Jets could be a far more competitive unit than expected. Given the narrow margin, home-field advantage, and comparable talent levels, it would not be surprising to see this line dip toward pick’em as the market adjusts.

 

Vikings (-108) at Bears (-118)

 

This matchup could quickly become one of the more interesting spreads on the board. Currently, the Bears are sitting at -1.5, reflecting uncertainty around both teams. The Chicago Bears are expected to become a preseason darling thanks to the arrival of Ben Johnson as head coach and positive vibes surrounding their offensive rebuild. 

With a revamped offensive line and a group of promising pass catchers, Chicago could gain significant traction with even minimal camp buzz.

Minnesota’s offensive line is undergoing a rebuild, but all eyes are on the quarterback room. J.J. McCarthy is recovering from a serious injury, and Sam Darnold’s offseason performance has raised questions about who will start. 

The Vikings entered last season with a 6.5-win total under similar quarterback uncertainty, and there’s little reason to think they should be rated any higher now. If the Bears generate positive news in camp and their rookie class shines early, this line could quickly shift to -3 or more.

 

Raiders (+125) at Patriots (-160)

 

The Patriots have been surprisingly well-regarded in offseason futures markets. In a comprehensive spread analysis released in May, New England was rated as the 14th-strongest team in the league, above the Texans, Vikings, Seahawks, and Bears. That optimism feels premature. The Patriots finished 30th in points and 31st in yards last season, and while rookie quarterback Drake Maye showed some upside, the offense remains one of the NFL’s least proven.

The New England Patriots attempted to fix their offensive line by signing Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses and drafting Will Campbell to play left tackle. However, neither Bradbury nor Moses stood out on their previous teams, and Campbell is untested at the NFL level. That leaves Maye behind a questionable line in his first Week 1 start, facing a Raiders team that made more substantial upgrades.

Las Vegas brought in Geno Smith at quarterback and hired Mike Vrabel to lead the team, both moves that could pay immediate dividends. While the Patriots may improve over time, their current market pricing seems inflated. The Las Vegas Raiders arguably improved where it counts, and as that becomes clearer to the public, this line is unlikely to remain at the key number of -3. Movement toward a pick’em or even slight favoring of Las Vegas wouldn’t be surprising given the trajectory of both rosters.

 

Now is the time to take the NFL Action with You

The quiet weeks leading up to preseason provide a unique opportunity for NFL Betting. These Week 1 NFL Betting Odds present value today that may disappear once training camps open and media narratives take over. Whether it’s Los Angeles’ defensive mismatch, Chicago’s preseason momentum, or New England’s inflated reputation, these lines are unlikely to hold. Locking in favorable numbers now may be the difference between profit and disappointment by the time the 2025 season kicks off.

 

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