Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 5 Teams to Collapse in 2025
NFL Shocker: 5 Powerhouse Teams Set to Collapse in 2025 According to the Numbers
Every offseason brings optimism, but history shows some contenders fall back the following year. Looking at performance metrics, health, and roster turnover, several franchises are primed to slip from their 2024 highs.
NFL Odds and NFL Betting markets already factor in these trends, and sharp bettors pay close attention. While the NFL Draft reshaped some rosters, proven data from last year remains the best predictor of regression.
This breakdown uses advanced metrics and season results to identify five teams most likely to decline in 2025, despite past success.
Kansas City Chiefs (+810 Odds to Win the Super Bowl)
The Chiefs finished 2024 with a 15-2 record and an unprecedented 10-0 mark in one-score games. Their plus-59 point differential was the lowest ever recorded by a 15-win team, equating to a Pythagorean expectation closer to 10 wins. Historically, teams with such wide gaps between actual and expected wins decline by an average of 3.2 games the following season.
Patrick Mahomes still anchors one of the league’s most dangerous offenses, but issues loom. Kansas City struggled in the red zone, converting just under 54% of trips into touchdowns, the worst mark of the Mahomes era.
Travis Kelce showed a decline at age 35, Rashee Rice faces potential suspension, and the offensive line remains unsettled despite adding Jaylon Moore and rookie Josh Simmons. Defensively, the team lost reliable safety Justin Reid, and opponents are unlikely to miss field goals at the same league-low 81.8% clip again.
Even with Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo leading the staff, the statistical profile points to fewer wins. Twelve victories and a playoff run remain likely, but duplicating 15-2 is improbable.
Detroit Lions (+1100 Odds to Win the Super Bowl)
Detroit’s 15-2 record in 2024 came with a dominant plus-222 point differential, one of the top 10 since 1989. However, their postseason exposed weaknesses, as injuries decimated the defense and turnovers doomed them in a 45-31 playoff loss to Washington.
Defensive health should improve after finishing last in adjusted games lost, but the offense likely won’t be as fortunate. Detroit had the second-healthiest offense in the league last season, with starters missing only 10 combined games. Injuries to new starters Christian Mahogany and shuffled linemen could destabilize a unit critical to Jared Goff’s success. His performance splits are stark: he posted a league-best Total QBR of 78.2 without pressure but dropped to 17.6 when pressured.
The coaching staff also lost both coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, forcing Dan Campbell to promote internally. Replicating the creative game-planning of Johnson, in particular, will be a challenge. With the second-toughest schedule in 2025 and nine projected playoff teams on the slate, Detroit is unlikely to match last year’s 15-win peak. A step back to the 12-win range is realistic.
Washington Commanders (+1975 Odds to Win the Super Bowl)
Washington improved from 4-13 to 12-5 in 2024, fueled by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and opportunistic late-game heroics. They went 8-2 in one-score games and converted an NFL-best 87% of fourth downs, going 20-for-23. That fourth-down success rate was 14 percentage points higher than any other team since 2000 and produced 115 points, the most in league history from such drives.
The roster is older, with key additions like Bobby Wagner (35) and Zach Ertz (34) offsetting Daniels’ youth. Several veteran free agents who contributed in 2024 are gone, while trades for Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel depleted draft capital. Washington had only three top-200 picks in April’s NFL Draft, limiting the influx of young talent.
The Commanders were also among the league’s healthiest teams by adjusted games lost, a trend difficult to repeat. Losing top lineman Sam Cosmi to a postseason ACL tear adds to concerns. While Daniels is capable of late-game magic, banking on repeated defensive breakdowns and missed opponent field goals is unrealistic. A playoff berth remains possible, but another deep run is less likely.
Minnesota Vikings (+2400 Odds to Win the Super Bowl)
Minnesota surged to 14-3 last year with a plus-100 point differential and the league’s seventh-best DVOA. They also led the NFL in turnovers forced, finishing with 33 takeaways. History shows such turnover-driven defenses rarely sustain success, with only 17% of top-five units repeating the feat the following season.
The roster’s age compounds concerns. The Vikings fielded the oldest team in 2024, leaning on veterans like Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin in the secondary. Both are gone, replaced by inconsistent journeymen Jeff Okudah, Tavierre Thomas, and Isaiah Rodgers. Meanwhile, the front office added older defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, both coming off injury-limited seasons.
Offensively, J.J. McCarthy replaces Sam Darnold at quarterback. McCarthy inherits a talented roster but steps into a high-pressure role uncommon for rookie passers. Protecting the ball and reducing drive-killing sacks will be critical, especially with Aaron Jones’ fumbling issues and an offensive line still in transition.
Regression toward their expected 11-win profile is realistic, especially with the league’s fourth-toughest schedule.
Indianapolis Colts (+10000 Odds to Win the Super Bowl)
The Colts quietly posted an 8-9 record in 2024 despite a minus-50 point differential. Many wins came against backup quarterbacks and bottom-tier opponents, with six victories over teams that combined for a 32-87 record.
Quarterback play remains the defining issue. Anthony Richardson struggled with accuracy, posting the worst completion percentage in league history for a passer with 200 attempts or more, while throwing interceptions on 4.5% of dropbacks. Daniel Jones, now named the starter, offers safer play but limited upside and has missed 22 of 90 games in his career due to injuries. Both quarterbacks carry significant health risks.
The offensive line lost Ryan Kelly and Will Fries to Minnesota, leaving inexperienced players to step into key roles. On defense, missed tackles plagued the unit, though offseason additions like Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum should help. Coordinator Lou Anarumo replaces Gus Bradley, but systemic improvements will take time.
Given more formidable opponents and persistent uncertainty at quarterback, Indianapolis faces long odds of matching last year’s win total.
What to Expect for this Season?
Predicting decline is as crucial as spotting breakout teams when analyzing NFL Betting markets. The Chiefs, Vikings, Commanders, Colts, and Lions all face structural challenges that point to fewer wins in 2025. Whether it’s unsustainable one-score records, turnover luck, or roster age, history suggests these teams are prime regression candidates.
NFL Odds already reflect skepticism, but bettors who study the data can find value in fading inflated expectations. While all five remain competitive, their 2024 peaks are unlikely to repeat in 2025.
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