Thursday Night Football Odds Week 1: Eagles vs Cowboys

NFL
September 1, 2025


The NFC East opens the new season on Thursday Night Football with a rivalry that always moves numbers. The Dallas Cowboys visit the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field with kickoff set for 8:20 pm ET on Thursday, September 4, 2025. The latest NFL Odds show a full touchdown spread and a tight total, giving NFL Betting players a clear early read on market sentiment after very different 2024 campaigns. 

Philadelphia is the defending champion and enters 2025 with continuity on the sideline and star power across the depth chart. Dallas begins the Brian Schottenheimer era and looks to reset after a 7-10 period. Handicappers will weigh last season’s numbers, current prices, and likely game script before placing a winning wager.

 

Current BUSR Odds

 

Book numbers from the board:

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys +7 (+100); Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-120)
  • Moneyline: Dallas +270; Philadelphia -360
  • Total: Over 47 (-110); Under 47 (-110)

*The odds are subject to change without notice. Stay tuned to BUSR NFL lines and stay up-to-date with the live odds for this game.

 

The spread shows strong confidence in Philadelphia at home, and the moneyline mirrors that stance with a heavy price on the Eagles. The total sits at 47 with balanced juice, pointing toward a median scoring script. These prices align with an opener that expects Philadelphia to control pace and field position.

 

Dallas Cowboys


NFL Team Dallas CowboysDallas went 7-10 last season, 3-3 in NFC East play. The split was stark by venue: 2-7 at home, 5-3 on the road, which applies here in Philadelphia. The offense averaged 20.6 points per game and 327.5 yards per game. The defense allowed 27.5 points and 355.2 yards per game. Team leaders: Dak Prescott posted 1,978 passing yards, Rico Dowdle ran for 1,079, and CeeDee Lamb recorded 1,194 receiving yards.

Brian Schottenheimer takes over in his first season as head coach. The starting offense lists Dak Prescott at quarterback, Javonte Williams at running back, and a receiver trio of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jalen Tolbert, with Jake Ferguson at tight end and Hunter Luepke at fullback. Dallas reports no key injuries entering Week 1. 

A front office and locker room item has circulated regarding a top defender’s trade request; bettors should monitor pregame inactives and any snap-management news, as this impacts pass rush expectations and coverage calls.

Schottenheimer emphasized direct communication during final cuts and roster setting: “It was hard to sit down in front of those guys and be honest and tell them the why… tell them the areas that they can improve.” That tone suggests simplified plans early and a focus on execution. 

With Prescott, Dallas can operate the intermediate passing game to Lamb and Pickens and lean on Williams’ inside work. Road splits were the bright spot last season, and the offensive line will need to create a steady platform because long-yardage downs fed into last year’s points-allowed average.

Trend profile for betting decisions: Dallas is 6-12 ATS as an underdog, including 3-6 ATS as a road dog of 7 or fewer. Totals lean high in certain spots: 6-3 to the Over when catching between 3.5 and 9.5, and 8-2 to the Over on grass. The grass angle applies here. Those marks frame a team that often trades scores when chasing games away from home, though the opponent’s defensive profile matters.

 

Philadelphia Eagles


Bet on Football with the latest news, expert picks and the best NFL Wildcard Games. 🏈 JOIN NOW and win up to $2,500 BONUS 🏈Philadelphia went 14-3 last season with a 5-1 division mark. Home form was elite at 8-1, and road form was 6-2. The offense averaged 27.2 points and 367.2 yards per game. The defense allowed 17.8 points and 278.4 yards per game. Statistical leaders: Jalen Hurts threw for 2,903 yards, Saquon Barkley ran for 2,005, and A.J. Brown led with 1,079 receiving yards.

Nick Sirianni enters his fifth season. The starting offense lists Hurts at quarterback, Barkley at running back, and a receiver trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Jahan Dotson, with Dallas Goedert at tight end and Ben VanSumeren at fullback. 

Philadelphia also reports no key injuries for Week 1. Sirianni addressed quarterback depth after a hot practice day, saying the team missed chances during a heat-heavy session and that evaluation requires a full tape review; that speaks to an organization that keeps its processes tight, even when the headlines focus on the top line.

With Barkley, Philadelphia pounds light boxes and forces safeties into conflict. Brown and Smith punish single coverage, and Dotson adds separation skill against No. 3 corners. Hurts remains a red-zone problem on keepers and QB power. 

The defense plays fast and closes throwing windows on scheduled throws. That unit’s numbers from last year align with what bettors value: a top-scoring defense paired with a top-scoring offense, plus a coaching staff that wins situational downs. Lincoln Financial Field amplifies this profile given the 8-1 home mark.

Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or fewer and 5-2 ATS at home against division opponents. Totals: 9-5 to the Over at home when the total lands between 42.5 and 49, and 9-4 to the first-half Over versus division opponents. These signals point toward reliable early and full-game scoring in this building when lines sit near mid-40s.

 

Team Matchup: What Matters to the Number


Philadelphia averaged 27.2 points per game, Dallas averaged 20.6. The Eagles allowed only 17.8 per game, and they did that with balance. Those splits justify a touchdown spread.

Eagles outgained opponents by nearly 89 yards per game when comparing their offense (367.2) to their defense (278.4). Dallas posted a negative yardage differential, giving up 355.2 per game while producing 327.5. Yardage differential often maps to ATS strength.

Hurts’ dual-threat role triggers short-yardage conversions and red-zone reach. Prescott’s efficiency depends on protection and rhythm to Lamb and Pickens, along with Jake Ferguson as a chain-mover. If Dallas falls into second-and-long often, the Philadelphia front will dictate.

Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards last season changed how defenses aligned. Javonte Williams brings power for Dallas, and success between the tackles early would be a necessary equalizer.

Eagles were 8-1 at home. Dallas traveled well at 5-3 on the road; that travel mark keeps them alive to compete across four quarters, though the opponent strength here is top-tier.

 

Trends to Know


Dallas: 6-12 ATS as an underdog; 3-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 or fewer; 6-3 Over as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5; 8-2 Over on grass.

Philadelphia: 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or fewer; 5-2 ATS at home versus division rivals; 9-5 Over at home in the 42.5–49 total band; 9-4 first-half Over against division opponents.

 

Dallas Path to Cover

 

  • Create explosives off play-action to Lamb and Pickens to avoid long third downs.
  • Feature Javonte Williams early to slow the Eagles’ interior rush and open middle-of-field windows for Ferguson.
  • Win field position through special teams to shorten the field for a 20–23 point ceiling.
  • Turn red-zone trips into touchdowns since field goals rarely hold at the Linc against a 27-point offense.

 

Philadelphia Path to Cover

  • Sequence Barkley on early downs to force single-high safety looks and create one-on-ones for Brown and Smith.
  • Maintain Hurts’ keeper and RPO menu in the low red zone where Dallas’ defense allowed 27.5 per game last season.
  • Keep drives clean; the Eagles’ 14-3 profile came from efficient third downs and limited giveaways.
  • Leverage home crowd and pass rush to pin Dallas into must-throw sequences in the second half.

 

Prediction and Analysis


Philadelphia -7 (-120), total 47. Moneyline -360. The spread and moneyline signal a controlled game script for the Eagles with limited upset risk, while the total indicates a mid-40s scoring expectation.

Score projection: Eagles 24, Cowboys 10. That aligns with a cover by Philadelphia and a result under 47. The handicap hinges on three items:

Last season’s numbers show a clear difference in both scoring and yards per play profile. Philadelphia’s defense allowed 17.8 per game and 278.4 yards, which pairs with a 27.2-point offense. Dallas allowed 27.5 per game and gave up 355.2 yards. That gap matters in openers where systems remain stable.

Hurts, Barkley, and the Eagles’ route combinations with Brown, Smith, Dotson, and Goedert produce reliable short-yardage conversions. Dallas needs touchdowns, not field goals, to maintain pressure. Philadelphia’s defensive structure trims explosives and wins situational downs, which narrows Dallas’ margin.

Sirianni’s fifth season and an 8-1 home mark last year inform expectations. Schottenheimer’s first game as head coach arrives in a tough venue. His quote about direct feedback and development points to a steady build; openers at the Linc rarely offer that luxury.

Lay the points with Philadelphia at -7 (monitor juice). For totals, lean Under 47 given the Eagles’ defensive baseline and the likelihood of long Dallas drives that stall in plus territory. Derivative angles include Eagles’ first-half and Barkley touchdown props, if your book lists favorable prices. 

The trend stack also favors Philadelphia against the number in this range at home and supports early scoring toward a modest first-half Over in many divisional spots; in this matchup, the stronger angle remains side and full-game total.

 

Pick: Eagles -7 and Under 47. 

 

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