Week 14 Sunday Night Football Player Props Chiefs vs Texans
The crucial Sunday Night Football matchup features the Kansas City Chiefs (6–6) hosting the Houston Texans (7–5), a defensive powerhouse.
With the Chiefs fighting to stay atop the AFC West and the Texans leading the league in scoring defense, the offensive firepower of Patrick Mahomes will be severely tested. Our focus is on NFL player props for running backs and wide receivers with the highest touchdown and volume upside.
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Latest Betting Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total
| BUSR | Texans | Chiefs |
| Spread | +3.5 (-115) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +161 | -200 |
| Total | O 42 (-110) | U 42 (-110) |
Kansas City Chiefs Overview: Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – The Kansas City Chiefs hold a 6–6 record, struggling to sustain consistent offensive scoring in the latter half of the season.
- – They have lost three of their last six games, entering Week 14 on a negative trajectory.
ATS Trends
- – ATS Record: 5-6-1
- – Cover Rate: 45.5%
- – Trend Note: Kansas City enters this matchup below .500 ATS for the season, despite positive straight-up results
Key Injuries & Impact (RB/WR)
- – RB Isiah Pacheco (Shoulder): Was Limited Participation (LP) early in the week. If he plays, his workload is expected to be managed, creating an opportunity for Kareem Hunt.
- – WR Marquise Brown (Ankle): Practiced as a Full Participant (FP) and is expected to play, but his production has been inconsistent, hitting the Receptions Under in 7 of his last eight games at home.
Strengths & Weaknesses (RB/WR)
- – Strength (WR Consistency): Rashee Rice is the most consistent WR, with 42 receptions, 486 yards, and 5 TDs on 59 targets through six games. He offers high NFL player props value.
- – Weakness (Rushing TD Dependence): Of the Chiefs’ 35 total TDs, only 13 have been rushing scores, putting immense pressure on Mahomes to convert through the air.
- – Weakness (Opponent Run Defense): The Chiefs face a Texans team that ranks 4th in Rush Yards Allowed Per Game (91.7), making this a tough spot for any Chiefs RB.
Houston Texans Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors
Recent Form
- – Texans have won 5 of their last 7 games, including victories over the Bills, Jaguars, Ravens, and Titans twice.
- – Houston’s defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games, showing one of the league’s strongest recent defensive stretches.
- – Texans have scored 23+ points in three straight games, signaling an improving offensive rhythm heading into the Chiefs matchup.
- – Houston is 4-1 in one-score games during this stretch, consistently closing out tight contests.
ATS Trends
- – ATS Record: 6-6-0
- – Cover Rate: 50.0%
- – Trend Note: Houston is outperforming market expectations more than most mid-tier teams, ranking top-10 in ATS efficiency this season
Key Injuries (RB/WR)
- – RB Woody Marks (Hamstring): Was a Full Participant (FP) and is expected to handle the bulk of the workload. He has had double-digit carries in each of the last seven games.
- – WR Nico Collins (Shoulder): FP and is ready. He leads the team with 795 receiving yards on 95 targets, making him the alpha WR.
Strengths & Weaknesses (RB/WR)
- – Strength (Volume RB): RB Woody Marks has a clear volume advantage, hitting the Carries Over in 8 of his last 9 games. He also has 2 Total TDs (4 total in 2025).
- – Strength (Pass Mismatch): WR Nico Collins has a high air yards share (PFR, 2025) and a Receiving Yards prop set at 68.5, showing his volume expectation.
- – Weakness (Rushing Efficiency): The Texans’ overall rush offense averages just 4.0 YPC, but Marks excels in Yards After Contact.
Head-to-Head History
- – Recent Series: Chiefs have won 4 of the last 5 vs Houston
- – Scoring Margin: Kansas City has outscored Houston 155–119 across those five matchups
Matchup Breakdown – Offense vs Defense
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
- – RB Rushing Prop: Expect limited rushing success. The Texans’ top-5 rush defense justifies RB Isiah Pacheco’s low Rushing Yards prop (25.5 yards). The Chiefs’ run game struggles here.
- – WR Red Zone: The Chiefs’ offense (62.0% RZ TD rate, 10th in NFL) is pass-dependent.
- – WR Rashee Rice is the prime goal-line target, leading the team with 5 TDs and having received 59 targets through six games. High Anytime TD upside.
- – Protection: The OL has allowed 27 sacks. Pressure on QB Patrick Mahomes will force quick throws, benefiting short-area, high-volume receivers like Rice.
When the Texans Have the Ball
- – RB Touchdown Angle: RB Woody Marks is the primary TD threat and volume runner. He faces a defense that allows 100.9 Rush Yards/Game, setting up Marks for high volume and goal-line chances (28 RZ touches). He has 4 total TDs this season.
- – WR Volume: WR Nico Collins is the offense’s alpha, leading in receiving yards (795 yds) and targets (95 targets). His high Receiving Yards prop (68.5 yards) is a strong target, as the offense relies on him to move the ball.
- – RZ Inefficiency: The Texans’ RZ TD conversion rate is low (43.59%, 31st in NFL). This funnels the few RZ opportunities they get to the most established threats: Marks and Collins
Best NFL Prop Bets
- – Anytime TD Scorer: Woody Marks (HOU): Marks has high RZ usage and volume (Over 47.5 Rushing Yards prop) against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run.
- – Player Receiving Yards: Rashee Rice (KC) Over 66.5 Yards: Rice is the high-volume receiver for Mahomes and will be needed heavily against the Texans’ coverage.
- – Alternate Prop: Nico Collins (HOU) Over 75.5 Receiving Yards: Betting an alternate line for higher odds on the Texans’ alpha receiver, who leads the team in receiving yards and faces a secondary preoccupied with Kelce.
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: Under 42
Why:
- – Both teams have a strong Under trend (Chiefs 8-4 Under; Texans 8-3 Under).
- – The Texans boast the No. 1 Total Defense (265.7 Yds/G) and No. 1 Scoring Defense (16.5 PPG).
- – The Chiefs’ offense faces a specialized Texans defense designed to nullify Mahomes’ improvisation, making scoring drives challenging.
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