Week 9 Monday Night Football Odds: Cowboys vs Cardinals

NFL
November 3, 2025

week-9-monday-night-football-odds-cowboys-vs-cardinals

 

The Week 9 prime-time slate, Monday Night Football rolls through Arlington with Arizona visiting Dallas at AT&T Stadium, and the market has settled on a tight number. BUSR’s NFL Odds list Dallas -2.5 with a total of 44.5, a setup that invites both side and derivative action for NFL Betting portfolios. 

While this tilt lands on Monday, it sits in the same marquee window that shapes your week around Thursday Night Football narratives: short-rest angles, public steam on favorites, and prop markets that react fast to headline trends. Framing Cardinals vs. Cowboys through those lenses helps identify where the value lies before limits rise and props move.

Both teams arrive off losses and divergent arcs. Arizona is 2-5 after a 27-23 setback to Green Bay before a bye. Dallas is 3-4-1 after falling 44-24 to Denver and has alternated wins and losses in its last four games. 

The Cardinals head to Seattle next; the Cowboys travel to Las Vegas. With a modest spread and a total that can swing on one explosive sequence, the cleanest edge comes from how these rosters produce in specific situations, how they start halves, and which player prop patterns translate to this matchup.

 

Market Shape and Betting Grid

 

BUSR posts Dallas -2.5 and 44.5, lining up with a classic home-favorite bounce-back profile. Dallas owns a 14-game win streak as a favorite following a loss. The Cowboys have covered seven of their last eight as favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage, which often appears in NFL Odds near key numbers like -2.5 and -3. 

Arizona’s counterweight appears in its underdog resume: the Cardinals have covered eight straight as dogs against NFC East opponents and have won four of their last five as road underdogs when holding a rest advantage. This is the push-pull that keeps the spread under a field goal.

Totals show a split. Each of Dallas’s last six November games as home favorites has gone over the posted line, a signal of early script strength and red-zone conversion. Seven of Arizona’s last eight road games against NFC East opponents have gone under, a nod to pace drag and third-down volatility in those trips. 

Rather than forcing a binary total stance, this creates live-bet and derivative opportunities keyed to opening-drive success rates and third-quarter scoring tendencies.

 

 

Arizona Cardinals 

 

Arizona enters off a five-game slide and a 2-5 record, though its skill core remains productive. Kyler Murray has 962 passing yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions on 68.3% completions, plus a team-high 173 rushing yards. Jacoby Brissett has chipped in 599 passing yards with four touchdowns and one interception on 64.2%. Trey Benson adds 160 rushing yards and profiles as a change-of-pace hammer when Arizona protects early downs.

The receiving tree is defined and efficient. Trey McBride leads with 47 receptions for 421 yards and four touchdowns, operating as the primary chain mover and red-zone outlet. Marvin Harrison Jr. sits at 24 catches for 396 yards and two scores, stretching boundary leverage and punishing off-coverage. 

Three other Cardinals have topped 100 receiving yards, giving Murray multiple answers against two-high shells. That depth matters late, especially if Dallas tilts coverage toward Harrison.

 

Cardinals Defense

Defensively, Arizona has 12 sacks and four interceptions. Mack Wilson Sr. leads with 53 tackles, anchoring inside fits. Josh Sweat has five sacks while Calais Campbell adds three, combining veteran length with speed to edge. The raw pressure count trails league pace, which puts weight on drive-killing negative plays rather than sustained heat. 

Arizona’s strongest situational marker lands after halftime: the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in third-quarter opponent points per game at 2.7 heading into Week 9. That stat supports live unders for the third quarter and halftime plays when game state invites conservative scripts.

Trend signals favor early aggression. The Cardinals have won the first half in six of their last seven Week 9 road games against NFC opponents and won the first quarter in each of their previous four November games as underdogs. They have also scored the first touchdown in each of their last four meetings with Dallas. In a game with a tight spread, those openings create middle opportunities: Arizona early, Dallas late.

Arizona’s prop profile is actionable. McBride has scored in four of the last five as an underdog. Michael Wilson has 35+ receiving yards in four straight against NFC East teams, indicating a steady role on designed leverage beaters. Greg Dortch enters Week 9 ranking second among qualified players in catch rate at 93.8%, giving Murray a high-percentage outlet if protection compresses reads.

 

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

Dallas carries a 3-4-1 record, alternating wins and losses over its last four games. Dak Prescott has thrown for 2,069 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions on 70.3% completions, maintaining ball placement while attacking vertically when protection holds. 

Javonte Williams leads the ground game with 633 yards and eight touchdowns, giving the Cowboys a short-yardage and clock-control lever that fits with their November Over trend as home favorites.

The pass game is diverse and explosive. George Pickens leads with 685 yards and six touchdowns and is the only player in the NFL to record a touchdown in five consecutive games heading into Week 9. Jake Ferguson owns a team-high 51 receptions with six touchdowns, dominating flats, seams, and red-zone isolations. 

CeeDee Lamb has 28 receptions for 406 yards and continues to stack volume spikes after losses; he has topped 106 combined rushing and receiving yards in six straight games when the Cowboys are favorites following a defeat. Jalen Tolbert has cleared 14 receiving yards in nine straight home games against NFC opponents, keeping three-wide sets live on third downs.

 

Dallas Defense

The defense has 15 sacks and four interceptions. Kenneth Murray Jr. leads with 58 tackles, balancing range with downhill trigger. James Houston’s 3.5 sacks headline a group that can flip drives with first-down stops. Dallas’s defensive variance has been high year-to-date, yet the team’s macro trend after losses stabilizes: when a bounce-back is needed, scripted offense and situational pressure often carry the day.

Trends concentrate Dallas’s edge. The Cowboys have won 14 in a row as favorites following a loss and covered seven of eight as favorites while playing at a rest disadvantage. They have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 9 home games. The structure points toward scripted efficiency early and a gear shift late if Arizona needs to play catch-up.

 

How the Trends Translate to the Number

 

Side trends split by team identity and situation. Dallas dominates the post-loss favorite angle. Arizona excels when catching points against NFC East teams. The deciding factors are tied to start-fast and halftime adjustments.

First-quarter and first-half markets: Arizona’s record of winning first quarters in four straight November underdog spots and first halves in six of seven Week 9 NFC road games pairs with the Cardinals scoring the opening touchdown in four straight against Dallas. 

Those data points suggest Arizona +0.5 in the first quarter or the Cardinals first to 10 points at plus-money ranges, depending on how BUSR posts derivatives. The Cowboys’ counter is Week 9-specific: five first touchdowns in their last six at home. This is the tug-of-war that sets up middles: a small Cardinals head start meets a Dallas finish.

Full-game spread: Dallas’s 14-game run as favorites following a loss and 7-1 ATS mark as favorites with a rest disadvantage map cleaner to the -2.5 than Arizona’s NFC East dog trends, because they pair with current offensive form from Prescott, Pickens, Ferguson, and Lamb. With a modest number, the Cowboys can win by a margin without requiring late-game variance.

Total: November Over streaks at home as a favorite for Dallas (six straight) collide with Arizona’s NFC East road Unders (seven of eight). Here, the tie-breaker is how the teams script their halves. Dallas expands its lead. Arizona’s third-quarter defense averages 2.7 points allowed, which tones down the middle stanza. An Over leans on strong first quarters and fourth-quarter urgency, so a live-bet approach that starts small pre-kick and scales if the opening two drives hit is optimal.

 

 

NFL Player Prop Angles That Fit the Script

 

Dak Prescott rushing yards 16+: He has recorded 16 or more rushing yards in ten straight games when Dallas is favored against NFC West opponents. Designed keepers and scramble lanes reappear in bounce-back spots, especially inside the low red zone and on third-and-medium.

Dak Prescott completions 26+: Four of his last five as a home favorite cleared this mark. Short-area usage to Ferguson and rhythm throws to Lamb and Tolbert help build volume without exposing the risk of turnover.

Dak Prescott passing yards 271+: Ten of his last eleven as a home favorite against NFC teams. If Arizona sells out to limit Williams on early downs, Dallas leans into spacing and speed-outs that build yardage fast.

George Pickens’ anytime touchdown: He has scored in five straight against losing teams. The red-zone target share remains strong, and shot plays off play-action often find him in single coverage.

CeeDee Lamb 100+ scrimmage yards (ladder options): He has 106+ in six straight when Dallas is a favorite after a loss. Movement pre-snap and slot usage against match zones amplifies YAC.

Jalen Tolbert 14+ receiving yards: Nine straight at home vs. NFC opponents. A single early-down crosser or third-down hitch can cash this.

Trey McBride anytime touchdown: Four scores across his last five as an underdog. High-leverage red-zone looks and quick seams are Murray’s outlet when windows tighten.

Michael Wilson 35+ receiving yards: Four straight vs. the NFC East. Boundary comebacks and curls keep him alive early.

Greg Dortch over receptions (if posted near 2.5): With a 93.8% catch rate heading into Week 9, designed flats and option routes offer low-aDOT conversions when Dallas heats the pocket.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 44.5): Sequencing, Pace, and Halftime Adjustments

The Cowboys have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 9 home games, and their offense distributes targets across six players with 60+ receiving yards in a game this season, tied for the most in the league. That depth forces Arizona to declare coverage early, and Dallas’s route combinations produce early explosives.

The Cardinals have four different players with 50+ rushing yards in a game this season, also tied for the most in the league. That diversity can soften the pass rush and protect the play-action. The Cardinals’ best defensive quarter is the third. That means even if Dallas takes a lead into halftime, Arizona’s defense can create a window for a live middle on the total or a second-half Cardinals spread if the number inflates beyond +7.5.

Field position and hidden yards matter. Dallas’s post-loss tendencies produce early short fields and higher red-zone expectations. Arizona’s first-quarter underdog success translates to scripted aggression, especially with McBride and Harrison featured on quick-hitters. Both angles can cash: Cardinals early props and Cowboys full-game spread.

 

What Decides the Cover

 

Dallas’s post-loss efficiency, combined with quarterback and pass-game depth, defines the edge. Prescott’s home splits as a favorite set a high floor: 26+ completions in four of five, 271+ passing yards in ten of eleven against NFC opponents. Lamb’s post-loss production adds yards after catch—Pickens’s touchdown streak pressures safeties. Ferguson’s tight-end usage keeps chains moving and unlocks red-zone fades and slants.

Arizona’s best path blends time-of-possession control with red-zone conversion. McBride remains a high-leverage weapon on seams and option routes. Harrison can flip field position with one boundary shot. The defense’s third-quarter stinginess keeps middles live, yet the Cardinals’ first-quarter and first-half profiles matter most for derivative bets rather than the full-game outcome.

If the game stays on script, Dallas takes an early lead, Arizona stabilizes the third quarter, and Dallas closes drives late behind Williams and high-percentage Dak throws. That sequence supports a Cowboys -2.5 ticket, a Prescott volume stack, and selective Cardinals early-game derivatives.

 

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -2.5, Over 44.5.

 

Pre-kick lean to Over 44.5 is modest. The optimal plan is a live add if the opening two drives show scripted efficiency, or a third-quarter under look keyed to Arizona’s 2.7 opponent points per game in that frame. If Dallas leads at the half and the live total dips near the low-40s, re-entry on the Over targets fourth-quarter pace.

 

 

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