Week 12 Thursday Night Football Odds: Bills vs Texans
Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC matchup on Thursday Night Football as the Buffalo Bills (7-3) visit the Houston Texans (5-5) at NRG Stadium in Houston. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, and bettors can catch the action on Prime Video. The latest NFL Odds from BUSR list Buffalo -5.5 (-110) and Houston +5.5 (-110), with a total of 44.0 (Over/Under -110). On the moneyline, the Bills are -230, and the Texans sit at +190.
Buffalo remains one of the top teams in the AFC despite recent inconsistency, while Houston continues to fight for playoff relevance despite quarterback injuries. The Bills’ explosive offense meets the Texans’ top-ranked defense in what projects as a tactical clash between elite scoring and disciplined containment. With postseason implications on the line, this Thursday Night Football contest offers strong betting angles across spread, total, and player-based markets.
Buffalo Bills (-6, -294, O/U 43.5)
The Buffalo Bills entered 2025 among the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl and currently hold +800 odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy. They are +200 underdogs to win the AFC East, trailing the Patriots (-250).
Through eleven weeks, Buffalo sits at 7-3, but inconsistency has been their story; they’ve gone 3-3 over the last six games. Their latest showing was a 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a performance that reignited confidence in one of the league’s most balanced offenses.
Buffalo’s success continues to revolve around Josh Allen, who remains one of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks. Allen has thrown for 2,456 yards while completing 69.6% of his passes, adding 17 touchdowns against seven interceptions. His dual-threat playmaking has him ranked among MVP contenders, holding the third-shortest MVP odds at +475.
Wide receiver Khalil Shakir has emerged as Allen’s most consistent target, recording 46 receptions for 454 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Dalton Kincaid, currently listed as questionable with a hamstring issue, has also been pivotal with 46 catches this season. On the ground, James Cook leads the way with 968 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 182 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.
Statistically, Buffalo’s offensive production ranks near the top of the NFL Betting. They’re scoring 29.2 points per game (fourth overall) and averaging 387.4 yards per game (second). On third downs, the Bills convert 44.9%, ranking fourth league-wide, and they own the fifth-best red zone rate (66.7%), highlighting their efficiency in scoring opportunities.
Defensively, Buffalo sits 14th in scoring defense, allowing 22.9 points per game, and 12th in total defense at 322.7 yards allowed per contest. The unit remains sound in key areas, including 12th in red zone defense (57.1%), but has struggled at times against mobile quarterbacks and deep passing attacks.
In betting terms, Buffalo has been even on both fronts: 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and 5-5 to the over/under this season. Despite occasional defensive lapses, their offensive explosiveness ensures that when they win, they do so convincingly. Each of their last six victories has come by seven points or more, reflecting their ability to pull away once in control.
Injury concerns hover over key starters: DT Jordan Phillips (wrist), WR Joshua Palmer (shoulder), CB Christian Benford (groin), TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring), and LB Terrel Bernard (ankle) are all questionable. Bernard, the team’s second-leading tackler with 52 stops, would be a significant loss in coverage and pursuit if unavailable.
The Bills’ challenge in Houston will be maintaining rhythm against the NFL’s stingiest defense. Buffalo’s offense has proved capable of overwhelming lesser units, but this matchup tests their ability to sustain efficiency against a disciplined, fast-reacting opponent.
Houston Texans (+6, +230, O/U 43.5)
The Houston Texans enter Week 12 at 5-5, having rebounded from a 3-5 start with back-to-back wins over the Jaguars (36-29) and Titans (16-13). Despite the resurgence, Houston’s playoff odds remain steep. They are +1500 to win the AFC South and +280 to make the playoffs, with the 8-2 Colts holding firm atop the division.
Houston’s momentum has come despite playing without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud, who remains sidelined with a concussion and was ruled out Tuesday. That keeps Davis Mills at the helm for the third consecutive game. Mills has totaled 726 passing yards with three touchdowns and one interception, offering stability but limited upside.
The Texans’ offense, while improved, remains in the bottom third of the league statistically. They rank 21st in scoring (22.0 PPG) and 19th in total offense (329.6 YPG). Wide receiver Nico Collins leads the team in production with 642 yards and four touchdowns, while tight end Dalton Schultz has added 489 yards and one score. On the ground, Nick Chubb anchors the rushing attack with 419 yards and two touchdowns on 99 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt.
The story in Houston, however, centers on defense. The Texans rank first in the NFL Betting lines in both points allowed (16.3 PPG)and total defense (258.1 YPG). Their defensive front has dominated in containment, and their secondary has minimized explosive plays. This elite statistical performance has allowed them to stay competitive despite offensive inconsistency.
The injury report looms large for Houston’s defensive core. S Jalen Pitre (concussion) and OT Tytus Howard (concussion) are both out. DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle), the team’s sack leader with eight, and LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee/illness), who leads the team in tackles, are questionable. The Texans’ depth will be tested heavily against Buffalo’s multifaceted attack.
Houston’s betting record mirrors its on-field unpredictability. They are 4-6 ATS and 7-3 to the under, a reflection of low-scoring outcomes driven by defensive control and offensive stagnation. The Texans also sit 31st in red zone efficiency (43.3%), meaning even successful drives often stall inside the 20-yard line.
If the Texans hope to extend their winning streak, they’ll need sustained offensive rhythm and mistake-free football. Mills must operate efficiently against Buffalo’s secondary, while Chubb’s physical running could be vital in controlling time of possession. The key lies in converting red-zone chances, a weakness that has repeatedly cost them points in close games.
Still, Houston’s defense gives them a fighting chance at home. Their pressure discipline and strong tackling should limit Buffalo’s big plays, forcing the Bills into longer, methodical drives. However, the absence of Stroud caps Houston’s upside and likely keeps their scoring ceiling in the mid-teens.
Betting Recommendation
The NFL Odds line up with market expectations for a matchup between a top-tier offense and a top-tier defense. Buffalo -6 holds value below the key number of six, particularly against a Texans team missing its starting quarterback. The Bills’ offense remains elite, and history shows that when they win, they cover. All six of Buffalo’s last victories came by seven or more points, suggesting the spread fairly reflects their average margin of victory.
Buffalo’s combination of offensive depth, quarterback play, and situational efficiency outweighs Houston’s defensive metrics. The Texans’ top-ranked defense will limit chunk plays, but sustaining resistance across four quarters against Josh Allen’s pace and James Cook’s rushing volume will be a major challenge.
From a totals perspective, the Under 43.5 (-110) stands out as the more favorable play. Houston’s offense ranks near the bottom in red-zone conversion rate (43.3%), and with Stroud unavailable, scoring drives will rely heavily on field goals. Buffalo’s defense, 12th in red-zone stops, has the structure to hold up in short-yardage situations.
The Under has hit in five straight head-to-head meetings in Houston and is 8-3 in the Texans’ last 11 games. Buffalo’s recent trend, four unders in their last six, also supports a lower-scoring script.
Expect Buffalo’s offense to start fast, build a two-score lead by the second half, and manage the game through balance and possession. Houston’s defense will force punts early, but over time, Allen’s mobility and Cook’s consistency should wear down the front seven. The Texans’ inability to finish drives will keep the game under the total.
Projected game script aligns with a controlled Buffalo victory. Houston’s defense prevents a blowout, but their offense cannot match Buffalo’s scoring pace without Stroud.
Pick: Bills -5.5 and Under 44.0.
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