2026 Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders (March 11)
Potente, The Puma breaks into the Top 10; Commandment still No. 1
With fewer than eight weeks remaining before the 152nd Kentucky Derby (G1), the race to secure a spot in the Run for the Roses is entering its most critical stage. More than 150,000 fans are expected to fill Churchill Downs in Louisville on May 2, as the final contenders attempt to qualify for one of the most famous races in American sports.
There are nine qualifying races left on the 36-race Kentucky Derby prep races season. The Derby field is limited to 20 starters, determined by qualifying points. The system also includes three potential international invitations: two from the Euro-Mideast Road to the Derby and one from the Japan Road to the Derby.
At least seven 3-year-olds have already secured Derby spots
So far, seven horses have accumulated enough points to effectively guarantee a position in the starting gate. Another contender could join them this weekend when the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs awards points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers.
Historically, about 40 points have been enough to make the Kentucky Derby field. Horses already sitting comfortably above that mark include Paladin, The Puma, Silent Tactic, Class President, Commandment, Iron Honor, and Potente, all of whom currently hold 50 or more qualifying points.
Kentucky Derby prep races soon double the available Points
The stakes increase dramatically between March 21 and April 4, when the major Derby prep races begin awarding 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers.
Many of the horses that have already secured enough points will likely run in one of these races as their final preparation before the Derby.
The final opportunity to earn qualifying points comes in the Lexington Stakes on April 11, which offers 20-10-6-4-2 points and is often targeted by horses sitting on the qualification bubble.
Potente and The Puma enter the Top 10
Two impressive performances on Saturday produced new additions to this week’s BUSR Kentucky Derby Top 10: San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Potente and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner The Puma.
Potente, a $2.4 million purchase by Speedway Stables, captured the San Felipe at Santa Anita, edging longshot Robusta by a head while So Happy finished another head behind. The victory gives Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert another serious Derby contender.
Despite having only two career starts, Potente makes a strong debut in the rankings at No. 7.
“This horse has a lot of talent,” jockey Juan Hernandez said. “He’s big, powerful, and he showed what he can do today.”
Meanwhile, The Puma delivered a surprise victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, defeating favorites Further Ado and Canaletto in only his third career start.
The colt is owned, trained, and ridden by members of the same team that won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Mage. After the victory, The Puma moves into the Top 10 at No. 8.
“He’s now earned enough points to make the race,” said Ramiro Restrepo, racing manager for the ownership group that includes trainer Gustavo Delgado. “Whether Gustavo chooses another prep race in April or trains him straight into the Derby will depend on the horse.”
The Top Five Remain Unchanged
The top five horses in the rankings remain the same as last week.
Paladin, winner of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), holds the No. 1 spot for the second consecutive week with 60 points.
He is followed by:
- – The Puma – 56 points
- – Silent Tactic – 50 points
- – Class President – 50 Points
- – Commandment – 50 Points
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5 opens Friday
The fifth pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Friday, with Paladin listed as the 5-1 favorite, followed by Commandment at 6-1 and Nearly at 8-1.
Recent prep race winners have seen their odds shift significantly.
The Puma opens at 25-1, a dramatic drop from 123-1 in Pool 4 after his Tampa Bay Derby victory.
Potente also sits at 25-1, down from 44-1 following his San Felipe win.
Iron Honor, winner of the Gotham Stakes on Feb. 28, has shortened from 122-1 to 25-1.
Horses Dropping out of the Top 10
Two horses who were ranked last week have fallen out of the Top 10.
Further Ado, previously ranked No. 6, finished second to The Puma in his 3-year-old debut, losing by less than a length.
Intrepido also exits the rankings after connections decided to skip the San Felipe Stakes and instead target the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4.
Several horses remain just outside the Top 10 and could move into the rankings soon.
Among them are Chief Wallabee, runner-up in the Fountain of Youth, and Litmus Test, a Bob Baffert trainee expected to run in the Arkansas Derby on March 28.
BUSR Kentucky Derby Top 10
1. Commandment
(Brad Cox, Irad Ortiz Jr.)
The Fountain of Youth Stakes winner has not yet finalized his final prep race, with options including Gulfstream Park or Keeneland. He has won three straight races since finishing fourth in his debut at Keeneland last October.
His maiden victory came at Churchill Downs on Nov. 1, going 7 furlongs. Commandment is currently training at Payson Park in Florida.
Owner: Wathnan Racing
Purchase price: $500,000 (Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024)
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor (by Orb)
Possible next start: Florida Derby (March 28) or Blue Grass Stakes (April 4)
Derby points ranking: No. 5 (50 points)
Future wager odds: 6-1
2. Nearly
(Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)
Nearly recently completed a 5-furlong workout in 1:00.60 at Palm Beach Downs, his fourth breeze since winning the Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 31.
Still considered one of the leading Derby prospects, he will likely need a top-three finish in his final prep race to safely secure a spot in the field.
Owner: Centennial Farm (Donald Little)
Purchase price: $350,000 (Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024)
Pedigree: Not This Time – IB Prospecting (by Mineshaft)
Next start: Florida Derby, March 28
Derby points ranking: No. 19 (20 points)
Future wager odds: 8-1
3. Paladin
(Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione)
Paladin worked 4 furlongs in 49.60 seconds at Payson Park on March 7, marking his second workout since winning the Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 14.
He maintains a perfect 3-for-3 record, including a victory in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 6. With 60 qualifying points, he has already secured a Derby berth.
Owner group: Magnier, Tabor, Smith, Brant, Brook Smith, Summer Wind Equine
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Secret Sigh (by Tapit)
Purchase price: $1.9 million (Fasig-Tipton Saratoga 2024)
Next start: Blue Grass Stakes, April 4
Derby points ranking: No. 1 (60 points)
Future wager odds: 5-1
4. Class President
(Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)
Class President defeated a strong field in the Rebel Stakes on March 1, earning his first graded victory in just his third career start.
The win gives trainer Todd Pletcher three horses in the Top 10. His final prep race has not yet been determined.
Owners: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing, CHC (China Horse Club)
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Top Quality (by Quality Road)
Next start: TBD
Derby points ranking: No. 4 (50 points)
Future wager odds: 20-1
5. Silent Tactic
(Mark Casse, Cristian Torres)
Silent Tactic nearly won the Rebel Stakes, finishing just a nose behind Class President.
Known for his powerful late runs, he previously captured the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 6 with a similar closing style. A strong effort in his next prep could give trainer Mark Casse his first Kentucky Derby victory.
Owner: John Oxley
Pedigree: Tacitus – Magical Sign (by Gun Runner)
Purchase price: $500,000 (Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale 2025)
Next start: Arkansas Derby, March 28
Derby points ranking: No. 3 (50 points)
Future wager odds: 20-1
6. Golden Tempo
(Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz)
After finishing third in the Risen Star Stakes, Golden Tempo has been fitted with blinkers to help maintain focus during races.
He previously won the Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 17, and a top-four finish in his final prep could secure his Derby qualification.
Owners: Phipps Stable, St. Elias Stable
Pedigree: Curlin – Carrumba (by Bernardini)
Next start: Louisiana Derby, March 21
Derby points ranking: No. 10 (35 points)
Future wager odds: 30-1
7. Potente
(Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez)
In only his second career start, Potente delivered an impressive victory in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes on March 7, stalking the pace before surging past 67-1 longshot Robusta.
Trainer Bob Baffert believes the colt’s pedigree indicates he will handle the Derby distance.
Owner: Speedway Stables
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Sweet Sting (by Awesome Again)
Purchase price: $2.4 million (Fasig-Tipton Saratoga 2024)
Next start: Santa Anita Derby, April 4
Derby points ranking: No. 7 (50 points)
Future wager odds: 15-1
8. The Puma
(Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano)
The Puma broke through with a convincing win in the Tampa Bay Derby, defeating favorites Further Ado and Canaletto.
Trainer Gustavo Delgado, jockey Javier Castellano, and owner Ramiro Restrepo were also involved in the 2023 Derby victory with Mage.
Owners: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, High Step Racing
Pedigree: Essential Quality – Eve of War (by Declaration of War)
Purchase price: $150,000 (Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale)
Next start: Florida Derby, March 28
Derby points ranking: No. 2 (56 points)
Future wager odds: 25-1
9. Iron Honor
(Chad Brown, Manny Franco)
Trainer Chad Brown now has two Top 10 contenders, with Iron Honor joining Paladin after winning the Gotham Stakes on Feb. 28.
The colt lived up to expectations in that performance and now targets another major prep race.
Owners: St. Elias Stable, William Lawrence, Glassman Racing
Pedigree: Nyquist – Orencia (by Blame)
Purchase price: $475,000 (Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024)
Next start: Wood Memorial, April 4
Derby points ranking: No. 6 (50 points)
Future wager odds: 25-1
10. Renegade
(Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.)
Renegade recently worked 4 furlongs in 49.33 seconds at Palm Beach Downs on March 7.
He won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7, and earlier in his career was disqualified from a maiden victory before finishing second in the Remsen Stakes.
Owners: Robert Low, Lawana Low, Repole Stable
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Spice is Nice (by Curlin)
Purchase price: $975,000 (Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024)
Next start: Arkansas Derby, March 28
Derby points ranking: No. 12 (25 points)
Future wager odds: 20-1
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