UFC 321 Odds: Aspinall vs. Gane & Full Card Breakdown

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UFC 321 Date, Time, and Setting the Stage

UFC 321 is quickly approaching, promising an unforgettable night of high-stakes mixed martial arts action. Specifically, the card is set for October 25th, 2025, emanating live from the magnificent Etihad Arena. This stunning venue is located in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, continuing the tradition of massive events in the region.

The main card is scheduled to begin at approximately 2:00 PM ET, with the main event walkouts expected around 4:30 PM ET. Furthermore, international fight fans will be keenly following the early action on the preliminary card, which starts at 8:00 AM CST. This strategic timing ensures the biggest stars reach maximum global viewership. The anticipation is palpable, and the final UFC 321 Odds are being solidified across the globe.

Main Card: Championship Aspirations and Heavyweight Threats

This card features a powerhouse lineup from top to bottom, filled with title implications. Consequently, every single bout carries significant weight for the divisional rankings. Below, we break down the five most crucial main card matchups, including a dedicated section for the highly anticipated main event. 

*Remember that the betting lines and live odds may change. Please stay tuned to our Sportsbook and get the most updated odds for each fight*

Mackenzie Dern vs.Virna Jandiroba: Strawweight Showdown

The Women’s Strawweight division features a high-stakes battle between two elite grapplers. Mackenzie Dern, a decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, seeks to cement her status as a primary title challenger. Conversely, her opponent, Virna Jandiroba, also holds a powerful grappling pedigree and relentless pressure. This fight will determine a major contender for the next shot at the 115-pound championship. Dern often struggles in the striking exchanges; however, her submission offense is arguably the best in the entire women’s division. Therefore, Jandiroba must prioritize takedown defense above all else to succeed.

Furthermore, Jandiroba’s striking volume and superior cage control could sway the judges if the fight remains standing. This particular clash is a prime example of high-level UFC betting strategy. The athlete who dictates where the fight takes place will undoubtedly claim the victory here. Bettors should study their preferred fighter’s ability to control the transition phases.

Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida: The Heavyweight Gatekeeper

Alexander Volkov, the towering Russian veteran, takes on the surging Brazilian powerhouse, Jailton Almeida. Volkov has faced every top heavyweight, serving as a crucial gatekeeper. However, Almeida represents a new breed of heavyweights, combining speed with devastating grappling skills. The odds reflect the perceived gap in their momentum. Consequently, a strong performance from Almeida will catapult him into the elite title discussion. Volkov’s significant striking range and powerful leg kicks pose a complex puzzle for Almeida on the feet. 

Conversely, if Almeida can close the distance and execute his wrestling, the fight changes entirely. He possesses world-class top control and heavy ground-and-pound. The current bet on UFC 321 activity shows significant interest in Almeida’s finishing potential. This clash is genuinely one of the most exciting style matchups on the entire card. The UFC 321 Odds suggest a potential upset for the hungry newcomer.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs.Mario Bautista: Bantamweight Contention

Umar Nurmagomedov enters the Octagon with a perfect professional record and high expectations. Representing the elite Dagestani school of wrestling, Umar possesses sharp striking and suffocating grappling. Conversely, Mario Bautista is a tough, durable competitor with impressive knockout power and improved submission defense. This Bantamweight contest is a true proving ground for both men. Should Bautista find success, it would drastically alter the top ten rankings.

Moreover, Umar’s pressure is relentless, constantly threatening takedowns and controlling the pace. Bautista must utilize lateral movement and unpredictable entries to prevent being pinned against the fence. Historically, fighters who can neutralize a Dagestani wrestler’s initial surge have often gone on to succeed later. The UFC 321 Odds are heavily stacked in favor of Nurmagomedov, but no one can ignore Bautista’s resilience.

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov: Light Heavyweight Firepower

This Light Heavyweight contest promises fireworks between two hard-hitting contenders. Aleksandar Rakic returns from a lengthy injury layoff, eager to reclaim his position near the top. Rakic is known for his clinical, powerful kickboxing and solid defense. Furthermore, his opponent, Azamat Murzakanov, is an undefeated force with an immense finishing rate.

Murzakanov’s awkward southpaw striking and granite chin make him a truly dangerous opponent for any fighter. Rakic must use his distance management effectively to prevent Murzakanov from closing the gap. Conversely, Murzakanov needs to maintain a high output to exploit any ring rust Rakic may develop. The winner of this fight instantly becomes a top-five contender in the 205-pound division. This high-risk, high-reward pairing will generate significant UFC betting interest.

Preliminary Card Showcase: International Clashes

The preliminary card features nine intense international matchups, showcasing rising talent from multiple divisions. These athletes are fighting for rankings and future opportunities, often delivering some of the most exciting finishes of the night.

Nasrat Haqparast (Morocco) vs. Quillan Salkilld (Australia): Lightweight Power

This Lightweight bout pits the powerful, high-volume striking of Nasrat Haqparast (18-5) against the emerging challenge of Quillan Salkilld (9-1). Haqparast, fighting out of Morocco, is a southpaw known for his aggressive pressure and fast hands. He will look to overwhelm Salkilld early with sheer output (6.40 SLpM). Conversely, the Australian Salkilld possesses a slight reach advantage and a versatile game that includes effective grappling.

For Salkilld to win, he must either neutralize Haqparast’s striking pace with effective defense and movement or test the veteran’s takedown defense (84%) to turn the fight into a grinding grappling match. The UFC betting analysis heavily favors Haqparast’s superior experience and striking pedigree at this level.

Ikram Aliskerov (Russia) vs. Junyong Park (South Korea): Middleweight Contender Test

Ikram Aliskerov (16-2) from Russia faces the relentless South Korean grinder Junyong Park (17-5) in a compelling Middleweight clash. Aliskerov, a four-time Sambo world champion, is one of the most explosive finishers in the division, with a 100% first-round finish rate in the UFC and perfect takedown defense (100%).

Park, known for his relentless pace and high volume, must survive Aliskerov’s initial blitz. If Park, known as “The Iron Turtle,” can weather the early storm and drag the fight into the second and third rounds, his superior cardio and pressure could become a significant factor. However, the current UFC 321 Odds reflect Aliskerov’s proven finishing ability, making him a substantial favorite.

Ludovit Klein (Slovakia) vs. Mateusz Rębecki (Poland): Lightweight Grappling vs. Striking

A classic European rivalry ignites the Lightweight division as the technical striker Ludovit Klein (23-5-1) takes on the aggressive grappler Mateusz Rębecki (20-3). Klein relies on his sharp kickboxing and solid takedown defense (76%) to control range. Rębecki, a powerful submission specialist and top-control artist, averages 3.46 takedowns per 15 minutes with 65% accuracy. 

This fight hinges entirely on the distance. If Klein can utilize his six-inch reach advantage (72″ vs 66″) and force Rębecki to stand and trade, he will find success. If Rębecki can close the distance and chain-wrestle, he can impose his will on the mat. The bet on UFC 321 activity shows this as one of the closest and most stylistically intriguing matchups on the prelims.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (Palestine) vs. Matheus Camilo (Brazil): Lightweight Scrappers

This Lightweight bout features Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-4) against Matheus Camilo (9-3). Al-Selwady is a hard-nosed, durable fighter known for grinding decisions, while Camilo is a high-pressure Brazilian looking to make a statement.

The odds for this contest suggest a near pick’em, indicating a tight, competitive contest that is likely to be decided by volume, cardio, and cage control over 15 minutes. Both fighters are likely to trade in the pocket, making this an exciting fight for fans and a tricky proposition for UFC betting analysis.

Valter Walker (Brazil) vs. Louie Sutherland (Scotland): Heavyweight Slugfest

Heavyweight prospect Valter Walker (13-0), fighting out of Brazil, faces the aggressive Scottish newcomer Louie Sutherland (9-2). Walker is riding a wave of submission finishes, showcasing an unorthodox and dangerous ground game for the division.

Sutherland, meanwhile, is known for his raw power and willingness to engage in the center of the Octagon. If the fight stays standing, Sutherland’s power gives him the advantage; however, if Walker gets a body lock or a single-leg takedown, he poses an immediate threat of submission. This bout has all the hallmarks of an early, explosive finish. The UFC 321 Odds lean towards the more versatile ground game of Walker.

Nathaniel Wood (England) vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (USA): Featherweight Action

The veteran English Featherweight Nathaniel Wood (21-6) faces the fast-rising American knockout artist Jose Miguel Delgado (10-1). Wood is a durable, well-rounded fighter known for his high work rate and solid defense. Delgado is coming off an instant first-round knockout and carries immense finishing potential, particularly in the opening stanza.

Wood’s path to victory lies in surviving the initial rush and utilizing his superior experience and cardio to outwork Delgado for a decision. Delgado’s best chance is landing a massive, fight-ending shot early. Wood is the clear favorite in the UFC betting lines, but Delgado’s power makes him a dangerous underdog.

Hamdy Abdelwahab (Egypt) vs. Chris Barnett (USA): Heavyweight Grappler vs. Striker

The Egyptian Greco-Roman wrestling specialist Hamdy Abdelwahab (6-1) faces the popular, acrobatic American Chris Barnett (23-9). Abdelwahab is a physically dominant fighter with exceptional takedown accuracy (95%) and ground control. Barnett, despite his size, is known for his agility, spinning attacks, and granite chin.

Abdelwahab is a heavy favorite, with his path to victory being clear: secure the takedown and utilize ground-and-pound. Barnett’s only realistic route to victory is to maintain distance, use lateral movement, and catch the wrestling specialist with a spectacular knockout blow.

Azat Maksum (Kazakhstan) vs. Mitch Raposo (USA): Flyweight Scramble

In the Flyweight division, the undefeated Kazakh Azat Maksum (15-2) takes on the gritty American Mitch Raposo (9-3). Maksum is a well-rounded fighter with excellent takedown defense (85%) and a southpaw stance, making him a complex opponent. Raposo is an underdog with a reputation for pressure and durability.

Maksum will look to control the range and pace, mixing in his grappling selectively. Raposo will need to maximize his 5.5-inch reach advantage (70″ vs 64.5″) and push an unrelenting pace to upset the technically superior Maksum. The UFC 321 Odds place Maksum as a commanding favorite.

Jaqueline Amorim (Brazil) vs. Inoue Mizuki (Japan): Submission vs. Striking

The final preliminary bout features an extreme styles clash in the Women’s Strawweight division: Jaqueline Amorim (10-1) from Brazil takes on Mizuki (15-6) from Japan. Amorim is an elite submission artist (4.8 Submission Average per 15 minutes, 75% of wins by submission).

Mizuki is a durable kickboxer with a strong striking defense (55%) and excellent takedown defense (85%). Amorim’s victory relies solely on getting the fight to the mat. Mizuki’s win condition is to keep the fight standing and outstrike the submission specialist for three rounds. The UFC betting lines strongly favor Amorim’s aggressive grappling, but Mizuki’s defense offers excellent upset value.

Main Event Deep Dive: Tom Aspinall versus Ciryl Gane

The heavyweight championship is on the line, featuring one of the most statistically compelling matchups in recent memory. Reigning champion Tom Aspinall defends his title against the dynamic former interim champion Ciryl Gane. This is a battle between relentless aggression and surgical precision.

Tom Aspinall: The Statistical Anomaly

Tom Aspinall’s rise to the title has been nothing short of extraordinary and statistically unique. His professional record stands at 15 wins and 3 losses, with a 100% finishing rate, highlighting his killer instinct. Most notably, Aspinall holds the best significant strike differential in UFC history at a staggering +5.18. This means he lands significantly more strikes than he absorbs.

Furthermore, his average fight time is an astonishing 2 minutes and 2 seconds —the shortest in the UFC. Seven of his nine Octagon appearances have ended in the first round, demonstrating his explosive power. Aspinall also leads heavyweights with 4.09 knockdowns landed per 15 minutes, ensuring high-impact moments. His wrestling is equally impressive; he has spent only 1 second on his back during his entire UFC tenure. The UFC betting community heavily favors Aspinall for a reason.

Ciryl Gane: Technical Mastery and Reach

Ciryl Gane (13-2) presents a sophisticated challenge unlike any other in the heavyweight division. “Bon Gamin” is renowned for his elite Muay Thai background, utilizing superb footwork and technical striking. Gane’s statistical profile shows a fighter who relies on volume and evasion. He boasts an 81-inch reach, giving him a three-inch advantage over Aspinall.

Furthermore, Gane’s striking defense is excellent, often frustrating opponents who try to close the distance. Gane previously captured the interim title by defeating Derrick Lewis, but his two title losses show a vulnerability to strong, controlling wrestlers. Specifically, he struggled immensely in the grappling exchanges against both his previous championship opponents. He will need a vastly improved takedown defense to survive Aspinall’s early blitz. The UFC 321 odds shows Gane as a substantial underdog, but his technical proficiency makes him a live dog.

The Pathways to Victory

For Aspinall, the path to victory is clear: exploit Gane’s known weakness in wrestling and finish the fight early. His speed and ability to switch between striking and grappling will be key. If Aspinall can secure an early takedown, the fight becomes dramatically one-sided.

Conversely, Gane must weaponize his length and footwork, moving constantly to keep Aspinall out of range. He needs to accumulate damage with low kicks and jabs, aiming to exhaust the champion’s early intensity. Should the fight reach the championship rounds, Gane’s cardio advantage might come into play.

However, Aspinall’s statistical dominance in the early minutes suggests Gane may not survive that long. This fight is a true heavyweight sprint, and those looking to bet on UFC 321 must weigh the champion’s historical finishing prowess against the challenger’s technical skill.

Conclusion

UFC 321 is not simply a heavyweight title fight; rather, it is a complete showcase of elite international talent. From the tactical battle of Klein versus Rębecki to the championship sprint of Aspinall versus Gane, this card offers deep betting opportunities for every kind of fan. 

Furthermore, the sheer volume of high-stakes matchups guarantees career-defining performances. The Main Event between Aspinall and Gane pits the statistically dominant champion against the technically brilliant challenger. Whether you are focused on the long-term UFC betting value or the immediate action of the main event, this card demands attention.

The final UFC 321 Odds represent weeks of rigorous analysis, offering a glimpse into professional predictions. Ultimately, securing a victory on October 25th will require not just skill but also the will to overcome the world’s most formidable challenge. The entire MMA community eagerly awaits the results, confirming this event as a massive success.

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