NFL Week 1 Odds: predictions, bets, and Picks against the spread for every game

NFL
September 7, 2025

Welcome to the BUSR season of this NFL Bettor’s Guide, a column that has seen it all, from the days of a 28-team league to the current landscape of a global sports juggernaut. It’s a span of time so vast that some of the players hitting the field today weren’t even born when our first picks rolled off the presses. Take, for instance, Aaron Glenn, now the head coach of the New York Jets, who was making his NFL debut as a cornerback on September 4, 1994, the same week this column started its journey.

Over the decades, we’ve ridden the rollercoaster of NFL prognostication. We’ve had our share of misses, including a rough 4-10 start in that inaugural season. But we’ve also celebrated some monumental hits, like correctly predicting the exact Super Bowl LIX outcome in last year’s season preview. This season begins with a new chapter for the Jets, as Aaron Glenn takes the helm against a formidable opponent in the Pittsburgh Steelers. His first game as head coach pits him against a veteran-led team and, ironically, the quarterback who was once the face of the Jets franchise, Aaron Rodgers. It’s a challenging task, especially for a team that has to find an offensive identity after a major injury to key lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker. We’re leaning toward the experienced Steelers to cover the spread.

 

The Pick: Steelers -3.

 

New York Giants (+6) over Washington Commanders:

 

This NFC East matchup has a lot of history, but the present is what truly matters. The Commanders are coming off a 12-win season, their most since 1991, while the Giants are hoping to move past what was arguably the worst season in their 100-year history.

Yet, when these teams met last year, the Commanders’ two victories were by just three and five points, with one of those close calls aided by missed kicks from the Giants. We believe the Giants’ offense will be marginally better with the addition of Russell Wilson. His veteran presence and deep-throwing ability should help to open up the field for the offense. We’re betting on a closer game than the six-point spread suggests.

 

Atlanta Falcons (+1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

 

The NFC South has been a rollercoaster, but the Buccaneers have been the division’s anchor, winning four consecutive division titles. Still, the Falcons are hoping to reclaim their glory. The Buccaneers’ offense, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, may struggle to replicate its success from last year, especially if key players like offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. are out. On the defensive side, the potential absence of Vita Vea would create a significant hole against the Falcons’ running back, Bijan Robinson. This could be a recipe for an Atlanta upset.

 

Arizona Cardinals (-6) over New Orleans Saints:

 

The Saints are the largest home underdogs of the week, and it’s hard to argue with the logic. The team struggled mightily with Spencer Rattler at quarterback last season, going 0-7 in games he played and losing by an average of 17.5 points. As much as we’d like to grab those points, it’s simply impossible to justify backing a team with that kind of track record, especially against a Cardinals team that has some potent offensive weapons, including star receiver Trey McBride.

 

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) over New England Patriots:

 

This matchup features two teams with new head coaches, Mike Vrabel for the Patriots and Pete Carroll for the Raiders. The Patriots could be without top cornerback Christian Gonzalez, which is a major concern for their defense. The Raiders, meanwhile, have made key additions to their offense, including quarterback Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty, and wide receiver Amari Cooper. This infusion of talent, combined with the presence of tight end Brock Bowers, should give them a distinct advantage. We’re banking on the Raiders’ new-look offense to put points on the board and cover the spread.

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-5) over Cleveland Browns:

 

Despite their best efforts, the Browns couldn’t beat the Bengals last season, losing both games and failing to cover the spread. We expect the Bengals to continue their dominance in this rivalry. Quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase are expected to have a huge season, and it should start here against a divisional opponent. The Bengals’ offense is simply too potent, and we believe they’ll put up big numbers and comfortably cover the spread.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) over Carolina Panthers:

 

The Jaguars, under new coach Liam Coen, have a huge advantage at the quarterback position with Trevor Lawrence. The addition of dual-threat standout Travis Hunter is a major X-factor. The Panthers, meanwhile, are dealing with injuries on their offensive line and to their top pick, wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. This will make it difficult for them to generate consistent offense. The Jaguars should be able to control the game and secure a solid victory at home.

 

Indianapolis Colts (-1) over Miami Dolphins:

 

The Colts are hoping to turn a new page with a healthy Daniel Jones at quarterback. They face a tough Dolphins team, but key Miami weapons Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane have been dealing with injury issues. We’re looking for the Colts’ offense, led by running back Jonathan Taylor, to grind out a victory. This will be a close game, but we’re giving the edge to the Colts.

 

Denver Broncos (-9) over Tennessee Titans:

 

This is the biggest spread of the week, and for good reason. The Titans are a team that went 3-14 last season and are starting a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward. It’s a challenging task to win on the road, especially at a place like Mile High against a Broncos team that head coach Sean Payton has revamped. While the spread is large, the Titans’ inexperience at quarterback and overall lack of talent make it a difficult bet to make on them. We believe the Broncos will control the game from start to finish and cover the spread.

 

Seattle Seahawks (+2) over San Francisco 49ers:

 

This NFC West rivalry is always a must-watch, and this week’s installment is no exception. While the Seahawks traded star wide receiver DK Metcalf to the Steelers, they added Cooper Kupp, who will join forces with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III. The 49ers, on the other hand, are without two key offensive weapons in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, who are injured or playing for new teams. We’re willing to take a shot with Sam Darnold at his new home in Seattle, and we think the Seahawks can pull off an upset or at least keep it close.

 

Detroit Lions (+1) over Green Bay Packers:

 

The Lions, who had a strong season last year, will be tested with new offensive and defensive coordinators. However, they’re facing a Packers team that will be without a key player in Micah Parsons, who is dealing with a back injury. This gives the Lions a slight edge, and we’re happy to take the points in what is expected to be a tightly contested divisional game.

 

Houston Texans (+3) over Los Angeles Rams:

 

The Texans, led by their star-studded defense, will make it a long day for Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense. The combination of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter on the defensive line will make it difficult for Stafford to get comfortable in the pocket. This game is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle, and we believe the Texans will be able to grind out a win.

 

Sunday Night Football:

 

The AFC is on full display as the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills face off in what is sure to be the game of the week. The Ravens are out for revenge after a heartbreaking playoff loss to the Bills last season. Lamar Jackson appears to have more weapons at his disposal this time around, while the Bills’ offense, led by Josh Allen, has some question marks. The Ravens are a solid pick on the road.

 

Monday Night Football:

 

The first whole week of NFL action concludes with a fantastic NFC North rivalry on Monday Night Football as the Minnesota Vikings head to Chicago to take on the Chicago Bears. The Bears, with new coach Ben Johnson and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, are an unknown quantity. Williams, however, is surrounded by a fantastic receiving corps that includes DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden III. The Vikings, on the other hand, have a first-time quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who will be without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. We’re taking a shot on the exciting new-look Bears to win at home.

 

BUSR 3 Best Bets for Week 1: Bears, Falcons, Ravens.

 

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