Week 11 NFL Odds: Complete Sunday Slate Betting Analysis

Share News

Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins

Line: Dolphins -2.5. Total: 47.5. Sunday, Nov. 16, 9:30 AM.

Neutral-site early kickoff, and the handicap starts with the number. BUSR hangs Miami -2.5 with a total of 47.5, a spread that suggests this is more of a coin flip than a mismatch. The Commanders come off a poor showing versus a top defense, but that context doesn’t carry here because Miami’s unit ranks in the mid-to-lower tier and no longer has the same pass-rush pop without Jaelan Phillips. 

That matters against a quarterback like Marcus Mariota, who struggled when the rush got home but looked serviceable when he had time. The matchup favors Washington’s pass game against a vulnerable secondary, not their run game, because the Dolphins have been better against the rush than their overall reputation suggests.

For Miami, the path is built on the number at the line of scrimmage and a favorable run matchup. BUSR’s total near the high 40s signals expected chunk plays, and De’Von Achane profiles as the catalyst against a Washington front that’s been leaky and is thinner after suspensions. 

The variable for Dolphins backers is Tua Tagovailoa’s volatility when pressured; the Commanders don’t bring the same heat they did earlier in the season, so Miami should find rhythm in early downs and keep the sticks manageable. With a neutral field and a small spread, late-game execution swings everything, and the total reinforces the live-hedge value if either side grabs a one-score lead. 

Pick: Commanders +2.5.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Line: Packers -7.5. Total: 44.5. Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 PM. 

BUSR’s -7.5 is a key clue: books are asking you to lay more than a touchdown with Green Bay on the road, which means the market expects the Giants’ quarterback situation to depress scoring and efficiency. If Jaxson Dart can’t clear protocol and Russell Wilson starts, New York’s ceiling drops substantially. 

The Giants’ best route would usually be mixing QB run with Tyrone Tracy against a Packers run defense that sits in the lower half, but the line gives Green Bay permission to crowd the box if it’s Wilson and dare New York to win outside. That tilts the early-down math toward Green Bay and tightens New York’s margin for error in third-and-long.

On the Packers’ side, the number telegraphs a Josh Jacobs game script. New York’s run defense grades among the league’s worst, and a road favorite at -7.5 implies run-heavy, clock-positive play calling once Green Bay leads. 

Jordan Love has enough perimeter weapons to punish single coverage if the Giants overcommit to the box, and BUSR’s 44.5 total supports a methodical path rather than a shootout. Factor in the Giants’ injury attrition in the secondary and the Packers’ short-week caveat, and the spread still points to the more stable offensive identity. 

Pick: Packers -7.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

Line: Bills -5.5. Total: 48.5. Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 PM.

BUSR’s -5.5 price on Buffalo is below a full six, which often signals respect for the road dog’s defense or concern about the favorite’s health. Here, it’s a bit of both: Tampa Bay can pressure and has historically handled mobile quarterbacks’ designed runs, but their pass defense has been targetable downfield. That’s a fair setup for Josh Allen to rebound, particularly if the Bills keep explosives without forcing hero-ball throws. 

The total of 48.5 suggests that oddsmakers expect points; for Bills backers, that means trusting a bounce-back script after a loss, where Buffalo has historically covered more often than not.

Tampa Bay’s offense depends on whether Buffalo gets one or both corners back. Suppose the Bills are closer to full strength in coverage. In that case, Baker Mayfield’s best leverage comes from Emeka Egbuka and matchup manipulation in the slot, not a ground game that has been up and down without Bucky Irving.

BUSR’s spread under six keeps teaser protection in play and reflects that Buffalo’s defensive injuries dragged last week’s rating; if a healthier unit shows up, the -5.5 is short of my implied -8.5 power number off the same data. In NFL Betting terms, it’s a classic buy-low favorite in a get-right spot. 

Pick: Bills -5.5.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers -5.5. Total: 49. Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 PM. 

BUSR hangs Pittsburgh -5.5 with a near-50 total, which is aggressive for a team nursing secondary injuries. The market is valuing the Steelers’ brand equity and home-field advantage more than their current cornerback room, and that’s where Cincinnati gains an edge, even without Joe Burrow. 

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins versus depleted coverage units have already paid once this season, and BUSR’s higher total backs a game where explosive plays show up. The other hinge is the Bengals’ ground game; against a defense that ranks in the bottom third versus the run, Chase Brown can give a caretaker quarterback manageable third downs and set up play action.

Pittsburgh’s case sits on the other side of Cincinnati’s profile: the Bengals’ defense rates last by several metrics and is particularly soft against the run, making this a Jaylen Warren opportunity. But the -5.5 asks the Steelers to win by a margin with an offense that often compresses into short-area throws and clutch third downs. 

With the total near 49, late variance re-enters the conversation, and you want the side with better wideout leverage versus corners who may be playing out of position. BUSR’s number is a touch high compared to the current matchup sheet.

Pick: Bengals +5.5.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Line: Texans -7. Total: 39. Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 PM. 

The BUSR spread at -7 and a low total at 39 paints a clear picture: the book expects Houston to control, Tennessee to struggle finishing drives, and C.J. Stroud’s status is the swing variable. If it’s Davis Mills again, the Titans’ lack of pass rush (second-fewest pressures) still softens the drop-off because Houston’s protection issues get masked against fronts that don’t win. 

Woody Marks has also carved out a bigger role, and that fits a low-total road-favorite script where efficiency trumps pace. BUSR’s number didn’t wait for a whole green light on Stroud, which tells you the Titans’ offense is the more stubborn problem to solve.

Tennessee’s path is narrow. Cam Ward held the ball too long the first time these teams met and got buried by sacks; the Texans’ front can replicate that pressure profile, and the Titans’ best counter, run volume, runs into a top-10 Houston rush defense according to the same dataset this line reflects. 

When a favorite is -7 in a game total of 39, each score is magnified, and the underdog must protect possessions to cover. The Titans’ offense hasn’t shown that gear, and the advance and current numbers at BUSR both lean toward the Texans. It’s not a blowout forecast, but it is a cover forecast more often than not.

Pick: Texans -7.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Line: Vikings -3. Total: 48.5. Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 PM. 

BUSR’s Vikings -3 is precisely the kind of price that invites split tickets, and the total at 48.5 hints at pace and explosive potential. The key change agent is Minnesota’s health: Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill are back, Brian Flores has his pressure hubs again, and Andrew Van Ginkel’s return tightened both the pass rush and run fits. 

That’s a tough ask for Caleb Williams, whose best moments come when Chicago runs well enough to protect him from exotic looks. Minnesota’s recent form suggests fewer light boxes and more simulated pressure, which drives the Bears into longer third downs more often than the market is baking into the flat three.

On offense, the Vikings face the defense with the worst pressure rate in the league, and that makes J.J. McCarthy’s life easier in a building where Minnesota traditionally plays faster. With Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison able to punish single coverage, Chicago’s injury-hit secondary becomes the fulcrum. 

BUSR’s number avoids the hook, signaling respect for Chicago’s record, but the matchup sheet favors Minnesota’s pass game, and the situational profile favors a home offense ascending as it gets healthier. In NFL Odds terms, -3 offers clean closing-line value if this trends to -3.5 by kickoff.

Pick: Vikings -3.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Line: Falcons -3.5. Total: 42.5. Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 PM.

BUSR sets Atlanta -3.5 with a modest total, implying a defensive-leaning game state and confidence in the Falcons’ pass coverage to contain Bryce Young. That aligns with what we’ve seen: even when Carolina gets Rico Dowdle going, they still need third-down conversions through the air, and this is where Atlanta’s secondary wins matchups. 

Michael Penix Jr. has been inconsistent, but the Panthers’ pass rush won’t stress him the way other defenses have, and Kyle Pitts has a favorable tight end matchup against Carolina’s coverage tendencies.

The reason this isn’t a larger line is Atlanta’s run defense. Ranked near the bottom, it’s the one lever that can flip the script if Carolina controls early downs with Dowdle. But BUSR’s 42.5 and the Falcons’ role as a short home favorite suggest a game where the Falcons can throw to win: Drake London’s recent form and backfield receiving usage for Bijan Robinson support movement between the 20s without overexposing Penix. 

The travel spot after Germany would usually be a red flag, yet the number didn’t discount it below the field-goal window. That keeps the Falcons alive against the spread so long as they avoid negative early possessions.

Pick: Falcons -3.5.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Chargers -3. Total: 44. Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 PM. 

BUSR’s Chargers -3 on the road with a 44 total reflects two truths: Jacksonville can pressure, and Los Angeles’ tackle injuries force Justin Herbert into quick-game offense. That’s a workable plan against a Jaguars defense that sits in the middle tier overall, but can disrupt if you hold the ball. 

Kimani Vidal’s recent workload provides balance, yet this isn’t the softest run matchup; the number implies the Chargers will still need Herbert to be efficient in the intermediate window to avoid behind-the-sticks penalties that feed Jacksonville’s rush.

Trevor Lawrence hasn’t matched the preseason expectation, and BUSR’s spread tells you that San Angeles’ defensive health bump matters. With Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman back in the fold, the Chargers’ pass rush looks more like a top-10 unit than it did earlier. 

Jacksonville’s line has allowed the eighth-most pressures, which pinches vertical concepts and forces Lawrence into contested windows. The total at 44 fits a game with drives that stall in the high red zone rather than a shootout tempo. In NFL Betting terms, that leans toward the team with the cleaner third-down answers and the better quarterback under pressure. 

Pick: Chargers -3.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Line: Rams -3. Total: 48.5.

The Seahawks bring the league’s most explosive profile into a genuine step-up game against a top-three defensive EPA unit. Sam Darnold’s connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba has fueled big plays and fast starts, but the context shifts here. 

The Rams rush without over-committing and remain elite versus the run, which matters against a Seattle offense that prefers to establish Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet to set up the deep shot tree. When Darnold is forced into longer fields and obvious passing downs, that ferocious rush narrows the window. It tests his decision-making, a key aspect that this core emphasized in January’s postseason meeting. Seattle’s counter is tempo and early down aggression, but it’s harder to play downhill when you’re not getting five on first down.

On the other side, Matthew Stafford must live within the quick game and his tight end depth because Seattle’s defense brings top-tier pressure without blitzing much. That reduces hot reads and forces precision into tight windows. The Seahawks are outstanding against the run, so Kyren Williams will likely be a grinder more than an engine here, putting more on Stafford’s timing to Puka Nacua and the tight ends in the seams. 

If the Rams stay on schedule and steal a possession with pressure-induced field position, the number at -3 becomes very reachable. If Seattle hits two explosives early, the over has real life, but the Rams’ front still profiles as the most stable unit on the field.

Pick: Rams -3.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Line: 49ers -2.5. Total: 48.5.

San Francisco enters as a slight road favorite on the NFL Odds board. Still, the matchup metrics tilt toward an Arizona team that looks different with Jacoby Brissett against non-elite defenses. The 49ers’ defense has been thinned by injuries, down from early-season standards, and without their typical pass-rush bite, Brissett gains the extra half-beat he needs to work Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals don’t require a dominant ground game to move the chains if Brissett is clean; they just need manageable second downs and red-zone competence.

San Francisco’s path runs through Christian McCaffrey’s versatility because Arizona’s defense, while underrated, has been sturdier against the run than many realize. That puts pressure on a backup quarterback to make small-margin throws outside the numbers, and the Cardinals can lean on disguise and leverage to cap yards after the catch. 

The hinge is Arizona’s cornerback health; if even one starter returns, the Cards’ coverage shell becomes much tougher on layered concepts. Market-wise, the pendulum swung too far on perception after Arizona’s blowout loss to Seattle. With this spread below a field goal in their building and the matchup pointing to a live home dog, the side has value even before turnover luck is considered.

Pick: Cardinals +2.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Line: Ravens -8. Total: 40.5.

This is where talent, form, and fit stack in one direction. Baltimore’s offense has trended up with Lamar Jackson shaking off rust and finishing drives. The defense has gotten healthier, which matters against a Cleveland unit that hasn’t shown a functional plan with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. When the Ravens can crowd the line because they don’t fear vertical stress, they suffocate early downs, turn second-and-medium into second-and-long, and unleash a rush that shortens the game by killing drives before midfield.

Cleveland’s best chance is Quinshon Judkins into light boxes and quick game to stay ahead of the sticks, but Baltimore has the personnel to erase that plan. If the Browns fall behind the chains, they’ll chase with low-percentage throws into a secondary that has the range to compress windows. The earlier meeting showed how this can snowball late, and the way the Browns’ defense faded in second halves recently adds to the fragility. 

Laying bigger road chalk can be tough in NFL Betting, but this is the rare case where the mismatch at quarterback and the Ravens’ seventh-ranked defensive form justify the premium. The total sits at 40.5; Baltimore can do heavy lifting there if short fields appear, but the cleaner angle is the side.

Pick: Ravens -8.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Line: Chiefs -3.5. Total: 44.5.

This price reflects both respect for Denver’s record and skepticism of Kansas City’s week-to-week urgency, but the setup favors the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes historically crushes blitz rates, and Denver brings heat at a top-seven clip. 

That’s a poor trade-off against Mahomes, who punishes single coverage and extends plays into explosive pass interference situations and scramble-drill chunk gains. Kansas City’s run game is rarely the headline, and Denver is stout against it, but the Chiefs don’t need 140 rushing yards; they need functional balance to keep play-action honest and to keep the Broncos from teeing off on third and medium.

For Denver, the actual edge is their ground attack into a soft KC run defense. If J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey can own early downs, Bo Nix avoids the full weight of Kansas City’s situational rush. The problem is sustaining that plan if the Chiefs score first and force Payton into must-pass sequences. 

The number moved off the best of it from the advance line, but the must-win reality for Kansas City, Mahomes’ ATS bounce-back after losses, and the structural matchup against Denver’s blitz all tilt the field. The under is live if Kansas City compresses the red zone and Denver stays in ground-heavy scripts; otherwise, the Chiefs’ efficiency pushes it toward the mid-40s. The cleaner edge remains side at a flat -3.5.

Pick: Chiefs -3.5.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: Eagles -2.5. Total: 46.5.

Sunday Night Football brings a style clash that’s tailor-made for late-window NFL Betting. The Lions prefer to build around Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on schedule, then let Jared Goff throw from clean pockets. 

The Eagles counter with a front that can win inside and has been reloaded on the edge, and that’s where this game swings. Goff’s splits shrink fast with pressure: when the interior is caving, his completion rate and timing fall off. Philadelphia’s ability to create push with Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis is the exact lever that can flip second-and-four into second-and-nine and kick Detroit into narrower route trees.

Offensively, the Eagles still haven’t found a consistent Saquon Barkley rhythm on the ground, but Jalen Hurts adds a layer that the Lions have historically struggled to manage. His legs punish man coverage and punish two-high shells that turn their backs on scramble-rules crossers. 

Detroit’s secondary remains thinned, and even if the Lions’ tackles play, neither is 100 percent, which complicates blitz pickup and hot answers if the Eagles heat it up on money downs. Weather chatter leans toward possible rain; if it materializes, it favors the more mobile QB and the heavier pass rush, both of which are Philly advantages. 

From a market perspective, laying less than a field goal with the superior front is often the optimal way to back that edge on SNF, and the total can still reach the high 40s if explosive plays materialize off Hurts’ movement and A.J. Brown’s YAC. 

Pick: Eagles -2.5.

How & Where to Bet NFL Online. Why BUSR is the Go-To

Ready to bet on the NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Games? You need a sportsbook that’s reliable, easy to use, and packed with value. That’s where BUSR comes in.

We make it incredibly simple to get started with online football betting. Our sign-up process is quick and hassle-free, bringing you into the action in minutes. We offer fast and secure payouts, so you can trust that your winnings will be in your account when you want them.

At BUSR, we pride ourselves on having deep sportsbook coverage for all sports, not just the NFL. But for football fans, our platform is a paradise. We offer extensive NFL betting options, from spreads and moneylines to player props and futures. Plus, our 100% welcome bonus of up to $ 1,500 + 25 free spins and our refer a friend program get you into the live action.

As we celebrate 10 years of excellence, we’re confident in saying we are one of the best NFL betting sites in the U.S. Our decade of experience has built a platform you can trust, providing a premier online sports betting experience for everyone from the casual Sunday viewer to the serious handicapper.

NFL

November 12, 2025

Week 11 NFL Odds: Complete Sunday Slate Betting Analysis

NFL

November 12, 2025

Week 11 Thursday Night Football Odds: Jets vs Patriots

NFL

November 12, 2025

Week 10 Monday Night Football Highlights: Packers vs Eagles

NFL

November 11, 2025

NFL Week 10 Highlights: An Odds Changing Weekend