Week 13 Monday Night Football Odds: Giants vs Patriots
Monday Night Football brings a matchup between two teams headed in different directions. The New York Giants arrive at 2-10 and carry a six-game losing streak, while the New England Patriots stand at 10-2 and continue to extend a nine-game winning streak that has helped lift them into the top tier of the league.
The current NFL Odds at BUSR list the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites at home with a price of -105, while the Giants hold the +7.5 line at -115. The moneyline sits at +330 for New York and -425 for New England. The total is listed at 46.5 with the over offered at -112 and the under at -108.
This matchup provides a contrast in season arcs but also presents a number that deserves closer attention from anyone involved in NFL Betting. The Giants have stayed competitive during their losing streak, as five of their last six defeats have come by ten points or fewer. The average margin across those six losses sits at 7.8 points, which places value on a number perched above a key threshold.
The Patriots arrive off wins over the Jets and Bengals and will face the Bills next, while the Giants have taken losses to the Packers and Lions and will meet the Commanders after this game.
The environment at Gillette Stadium on Monday night is shaped by strong production from New England, steady competitiveness from New York despite the standings, and league-wide trends that matter in December.
With both teams carrying clear statistical identities and matchup traits, the game requires a close examination of each side before settling on a pick.
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New York Giants +7.5
The Giants enter Monday Night Football with a 2-10 record, yet their recent performance shows repeated competitiveness despite failing to produce wins. They have lost six straight games, although five of those losses have come within a margin of ten points. Their average losing margin during that span sits at 7.8 points, which becomes significant when analyzing a line set at 7.5.
The Giants also have two outright victories this season when they were listed as underdogs of five points or more, reinforcing their ability to stay in games that the NFL Odds project as lopsided.
Offensive Production and Key Contributors
Jaxson Dart directs the Giants offense and completes 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,417 yards with ten touchdowns and three interceptions. Dart has been a consistent scorer in difficult matchups. He has produced at least one touchdown in each of his six previous appearances with New York when playing as an underdog against opponents with winning records. His mix of passing and mobility has helped the Giants find the end zone even when working from behind on the scoreboard.
New York’s receiving production has relied heavily on Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson, who have combined for 1,221 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Johnson has reached at least 33 receiving yards in five of the Giants’ last six games as road underdogs, which gives the offense a dependable option in situations where New York trails and needs to throw more often. Darius Slayton adds another reliable target with his 24 receptions.
On the ground, the Giants average 124.5 rushing yards per game. Cam Skattebo leads the backfield with 410 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Devin Singletary offers additional stability, especially in December games.
Singletary has recorded at least 36 rushing yards in each of his eight previous December appearances against AFC East opponents and has also reached at least 48 combined rushing and receiving yards in each of his eight previous December road appearances against AFC opponents. His ability to extend drives through both phases of the offense adds another layer to the Giants’ attempt to control tempo.
Defensively, New York allows 27.8 points and 385 yards per game. The run defense ranks 32nd in the league at 157.2 yards allowed, which creates one of the toughest matchups of the week given New England’s balanced offensive approach.
Bobby Okereke leads the team with 103 tackles. Brian Burns has produced 13 sacks, offering a pass-rush anchor capable of collapsing pockets when needed. Dru Phillips has produced two interceptions, while Victor Dimukeje has been targeted twice in coverage without allowing a completion, marking one of the most efficient coverage samples in the league.
Betting Trends and Matchup Indicators
The Giants bring meaningful betting trends into this game. They have covered the spread in each of their last three contests. They have won the first half in their three previous December meetings against the Patriots. They have also opened games well as underdogs, winning the first quarter in their last two games in that role.
The Patriots have struggled in December at home, losing nine straight games at Gillette Stadium during that month. New England has also failed to cover in seven of its last eight home games against NFC opponents. The road team has won each of the Patriots’ last five Week 13 games, giving structural support to the Giants as substantial underdogs.
New York’s recent total trends also lean toward slower scoring. Each of the Giants’ last five games against AFC East opponents has gone under the posted total. This tendency suggests a matchup where their pace and their defensive vulnerabilities funnel toward moderate scoring rather than a wide-open environment.
New England Patriots -7.5
The Patriots arrive with a 10-2 record, a nine-game winning streak, and the statistical profile of a complete team. They rank inside the top ten in both scoring offense and scoring defense, and they enter Monday Night Football after defeating the Jets and Bengals. With the Bills on deck, New England attempts to build on a stretch where they have controlled matchups on both sides of the ball. The NFL Odds reflect that dominance with New England listed as a 7.5-point favorite and a -425 moneyline.
Drake Maye has powered a strong passing attack. He completes 71 percent of his passes for 3,130 yards with 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. Maye owns the highest single-game completion percentage by any quarterback this season on at least ten attempts, hitting 91.3 percent against the Titans in Week 7. He has recorded at least 259 passing yards in seven of New England’s last eight games, giving the Patriots a reliable baseline of aerial production.
Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry anchor the receiving group. Together they have totaled 1,216 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Henry has been particularly effective in red-zone situations. He has scored in four of his five previous appearances with the Patriots listed as favorites against NFC East opponents. Kayshon Boutte adds 25 receptions and rounds out a receiver room that leads the NFL in depth.
Seven different Patriots have recorded at least 60 receiving yards in a game this season, tied for the most in the league heading into Week 13. Seven Patriots have recorded at least 70 receiving yards in a game, which ranks first in the league.
Ground Game and Defensive Performance
New England’s ground game averages 112.4 rushing yards per contest. TreVeyon Henderson leads the backfield with 558 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson brings veteran stability. Stevenson has recorded at least 25 rushing yards in seven of his last eight home games against NFC opponents and has posted at least 41 combined rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances against NFC competition. Against a Giants defense that ranks last in rushing yards allowed, the Patriots hold a clear route to controlling the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots defense allows 18.8 points and 301.2 yards per game. Robert Spillane leads the unit with 95 tackles. K’Lavon Chaisson has produced 6.5 sacks, and Marcus Jones has secured three interceptions. The defense has offered enough support to maintain long stretches of consistency, which pairs with an offense that spreads the ball effectively and sustains drives.
Key Betting Trends and Totals Outlook
New England also arrives with several trends that reinforce their favorite status. They have won their last eight games following a win. They have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites following a road win. The Giants have lost 11 straight games as road underdogs and have failed to cover in six straight games after coming off overtime. New York has lost the first half in each of its last six games as underdogs after overtime, which aligns with New England’s tendency to open games effectively.
The total has leaned toward higher scoring in New England’s matchups against NFC teams. Five of the Patriots’ last six games against NFC opponents have gone over the posted number, a result connected to Maye’s passing efficiency and the team’s depth of receiving options.
Prediction and Monday Night Football Pick
This Monday Night Football matchup presents a strong favorite opposite a team that continues to compete despite its record. New England enters at 10-2 with a nine-game winning streak, a balanced statistical profile, and multiple skill players with consistent production patterns.
Their passing game features accuracy and variety. Their run game aligns cleanly with one of the Giants’ biggest weaknesses. Their defense allows fewer than 19 points per game and supports a team that has won eight straight games following a win.
The Giants enter with a 2-10 record, although their recent form shows repeated competitiveness. Five of their last six losses have come within ten points, and the average margin across that stretch sits at 7.8 points.
The Giants have covered three straight spreads and have two outright victories this season as underdogs of five points or more. With Dart returning to full participation in practice, New York gains more consistency and another path for scoring drives.
There are several trends that support New York’s case for a competitive game. The Patriots have struggled in December at Gillette Stadium, where they have lost nine straight games during this month.
They have also failed to cover seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents. The road team has won each of New England’s last five Week 13 games. New York has also won the first half in its three previous December meetings against the Patriots and has opened well in its last two games as an underdog.
New England remains the superior team and deserves to be favored. They have the better record, the more consistent quarterback play, and a roster with more proven production. Yet the spread sits at a number that does not ignore the Giants’ ability to play close games, especially when the hook lifts the line above seven.
New York’s run production, its tendency to stay within reach, and its recent ATS success combine with New England’s December struggles to create value on the underdog.
The best play in this matchup aligns with the points. New York has kept games competitive throughout its losing streak and has shown two outright wins this season when given a large underdog line. With Monday Night Football presenting another chance for Dart and the Giants to extend drives and stay inside a number that sits above a key threshold, the underdog earns the edge in this NFL Betting scenario.
Pick: New York Giants +7.5
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