2026 NFL MVP Best Bets: 7 Dark Horses that Can Make It
The Quest for Historical MVP Glory in 2026
Since the Green Bay Packers triumphed over the Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 15 1967. —marking the historic dawn of the modern Super Bowl era, the Philadelphia Eagles have made five spectacular appearances in the big game, securing two Lombardi Trophies along the way.
Similarly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have reached the grandest stage of professional football on two occasions, walking away with a perfect 2-0 record and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy both times.
Yet, despite these championship heights, neither franchise has ever produced an Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player during the Super Bowl era.
This statistical anomaly places them in a very exclusive and unfortunate club alongside the New York Jets, who represent the only other franchise to have won a Super Bowl without ever boasting an MVP winner since the Lombardi Trophy era began.
Four other franchises share this historical drought: the Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New Orleans Saints.
As we look ahead to the highly anticipated 2026 campaign, the burning question remains: will this finally be the year one of these seven organizations crowns its first Super Bowl-era MVP?
Predicting these awards is one of the most exciting aspects of managing your sports portfolio. If you want to bet on NFL futures this season, targeting these highly motivated dark horses could yield massive returns.
There are several strong contenders on the horizon, with quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Trevor Lawrence leading the charge as potential candidates.
For those keeping a close eye on the latest NFL odds, these players represent immense value before the public money starts pouring in.
Let us dive deep into each franchise’s best hope to break the curse and rewrite the history books in 2026.
Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love’s Historic Rookie Campaign
Jeremiyah Love
Arizona Cardinals · RB
The Arizona Cardinals face an uphill battle in 2026 with a young head coach and a roster still under construction in what many consider the league’s toughest division.
Despite a challenging three-win season in their recent past, hope is high in the desert, primarily centered on Jeremiyah Love, the dynamic running back drafted No. 3 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Love is an extraordinary prospect, a reality reflected in his draft position and a record-setting rookie contract.
To understand how his presence shifts the landscape, checking the current NFL odds for Rookie of the Year and MVP can offer immense strategic insight.
History is stacked heavily against him; only one rookie has ever claimed the AP NFL MVP trophy, and that was the legendary Hall of Famer Jim Brown back in 1957.
No first-year player has ever won the award in the Super Bowl era, which makes Love’s path incredibly steep.
Furthermore, Love is expected to share backfield duties with James Conner, which could cap his overall touches and statistical output.
Yet, in a league where special players consistently defy conventional expectations, Love has the explosive ceiling to put together a magical campaign.
If you enjoy backing high-upside players, keeping an eye on his props is an essential part of your weekly NFL betting strategy.
Houston Texans: Will Anderson Jr. Leading the Defensive Renaissance
Will Anderson Jr.
Houston Texans · DE
Defensive players face an almost impossible barrier when it comes to winning the league’s highest individual honor.
Even when Myles Garrett set a breathtaking single-season sack record, he still found himself on the outside looking in during the MVP voting.
However, the Houston Texans have built their entire identity around a ferocious, fast defense, and Will Anderson Jr. is the crown jewel of that unit.
If Houston is to take the next step and emerge as a legitimate championship threat, Anderson will undoubtedly be the driving force behind their success.
Coming off a massive contract extension that made him the highest-paid pass rusher in the league by average annual value (APY), Anderson is entering his prime at age.
His trajectory is spectacular: he earned All-Pro honors for the first time in 2025, secured his second Pro Bowl nod, and finished as the runner-up for AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
Anderson has successfully increased his sack production in each of his professional seasons, showing no signs of slowing down.
To win MVP, he would need to become the first defensive player to do so since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
While it remains a long shot, those engaging in NFL betting markets know that backing an elite pass rusher can pay off handsomely if he starts flirting with historic sack numbers.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence’s Path to Elite Status
Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars · QB
The former No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft put together a highly impressive 2025 season, silencing critics and showing the elite form many expected.
Operating under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, Lawrence set career highs with 29 passing touchdowns, a QBR of 58.3, 359 rushing yards, and 9 rushing scores.
His outstanding play earned him a spot as an MVP finalist while guiding the Jaguars to a highly competitive AFC South division title.
Teammates have taken notice of his rapid ascension, with defensive lineman Arik Armstead noting that Lawrence “100 percent” belongs in the conversation of elite quarterbacks.
The primary obstacle for Lawrence has been consistency, as he has struggled to stack back-to-back elite seasons throughout his career.
If he can maintain this high level of play, Jacksonville will remain a major threat in the AFC, and Lawrence will be a constant fixture in MVP discussions.
During Jacksonville’s impressive 13-4 regular season run in 2025, they closed the year with eight consecutive victories.
During that dominant stretch, Lawrence threw for 19 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions, completing 62.7% of his passes for 251.1 yards per game.
Now fully comfortable in Coen’s scheme, Lawrence is primed to make a massive leap in 2026.
For anyone looking to bet on NFL futures, locking in Lawrence early at favorable NFL odds could prove to be a brilliant move.
New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough’s Year Two Ascension
Tyler Shough
New Orleans Saints · QB
After taking over the starting job midway through his rookie campaign, Tyler Shough completely revitalized the Saints’ offense.
New Orleans won five of their final six games with Shough under center, giving fans plenty of reason to believe they have found their long-term solution at quarterback.
Saints defensive leader Cameron Jordan expressed extreme optimism about the young signal-caller, stating that “there could be a bright future” for the franchise with Shough at the helm.
In just nine starts, Shough accounted for 13 total touchdowns, utilizing both his arm (10 passing touchdowns) and his legs (3 rushing scores).
With a full offseason to master Kellen Moore’s dynamic offensive system, Shough has the potential to make a massive sophomore leap.
History shows us that second-year quarterbacks often make the biggest jumps, with superstars like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes winning their first MVPs in Year 2.
To support his growth, the Saints have surrounded Shough with a formidable arsenal of offensive weapons.
The receiving corps features explosive rookie Jordyn Tyson, a healthy Ja’Lynn Polk, and a clear No. 1 target, Chris Olave, alongside versatile dual-threat running back Travis Etienne.
If Shough can maximize these weapons, he could quickly become a highly popular pick in NFL betting circles.
New York Jets: Breece Hall’s Historic Milestone Hunt
Breece Hall
New York Jets · RB
While the Jets have never had an MVP in the Super Bowl era, they do have a Super Bowl MVP in Joe Namath, who famously guaranteed victory in Super Bowl III.
Many historians argue that running back Matt Snell deserved that award after rushing for 121 yards and scoring the game’s only touchdown.
As the Jets look to break their long playoff drought dating back to 2010, running back Breece Hall is poised to lead the offensive charge.
Following a lucrative offseason extension, Hall declared he is ready to “flourish” under the team’s upgraded offensive scheme.
Hall is coming off his first career 1000-yard rushing season, proving he is fully recovered from his early-career injuries.
While his rushing efficiency climbed, his 36 receptions in 2025 represented his lowest total since his injury-shortened rookie year.
At just 25 years old, Hall possesses the rare blend of size, speed, and receiving ability that defines elite modern running backs.
While a running back hasn’t won the MVP award since Adrian Peterson’s historic campaign in 2012, a playoff return for the Jets led by Hall could change that.
Evaluating player props and rushing totals for Hall is a fantastic way to engage in NFL betting this season.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts Seeking Redemption and Dominance
Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles · QB
Despite facing immense scrutiny from the passionate Philadelphia media, Jalen Hurts has established himself as a premier winner in the NFL.
Hurts has led the Eagles to two Super Bowl appearances, capturing the Lombardi Trophy and earning Super Bowl LIX MVP honors for his sensational play.
He is a three-time Pro Bowl selection who poses a nightmare for defensive coordinators with his physical running style and deep-ball accuracy.
However, the Eagles are coming off an uneven 11-5 campaign that ended in disappointment during the Wild Card round.
With star receiver A.J. Brown traded to New England and Sean Mannion arriving as the new offensive coordinator, the pressure is squarely on Hurts.
Mannion has expressed supreme confidence in his new quarterback, emphasizing that Hurts “can do anything we ask of him” in this new-look offense.
Over his six-year career, Hurts has accumulated an impressive 57-25 record as a starter, throwing for 110 touchdowns and rushing for 63 scores.
With the spotlight brighter than ever, the stage is perfectly set for Hurts to make history as the Eagles’ first MVP since Norm Van Brocklin in 1960.
Monitoring his dual-threat production is a must for anyone looking to analyze the shifting NFL odds throughout the year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield’s Quest for Consistency
Baker Mayfield
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · QB
Before the Buccaneers struggled down the stretch of their 2025 campaign, Baker Mayfield was playing some of the best football of his career.
Mayfield was firmly in the early-season MVP conversation, showcasing his trademark grit and leadership despite battling multiple nagging injuries.
This 2026 season represents a massive crossroads for both Mayfield and the Buccaneers after they missed out on the postseason.
Negotiations have been tense, with Mayfield noting before camp that the two sides were “not anywhere close” to a long-term contract agreement.
If Mayfield can recapture his Pro Bowl form under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, he has a legitimate chance to secure his place in franchise history.
During his spectacular 2024 season, Mayfield threw for career-bests of 41 touchdowns and 4500 yards, proving his ceiling is incredibly high.
Having started 51 consecutive games for Tampa Bay, he has unquestioned durability and consistency.
If he can pair his trademark toughness with elite weekly execution, he represents one of the most intriguing dark horse candidates in the entire league.
For those ready to bet on NFL markets, Mayfield presents an incredible high-value option, shaking up the broader NFL betting landscape.
Lock In Your 2026 NFL MVP Value Early
With seven historic franchises seeking their very first Super Bowl-era MVP, the 2026 season promises unparalleled narrative drama and incredible betting opportunities.
Whether you want to back Jalen Hurts seeking redemption, Tyler Shough making a massive sophomore leap, or a defensive superstar like Will Anderson Jr. shattering historical precedents, the value on these dark horse contenders will never be higher than it is right now.
As public money begins to shape the market, these opening prices represent the absolute best time to secure maximum leverage on your sports portfolio.
Don’t wait until these odds plummet—analyze the board, pick your franchise-altering dark horse, and get skin in the game today.
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