Week 8 NFL Monday Night Football Odds: Commanders vs Chiefs

NFL
October 24, 2025

Week 8 NFL Monday Night Football Odds: Commanders vs Chiefs, Bet with Confidence with BUSR and get a 100% Welcome Bonus up to $1,500.

 

NFL Odds are set for a primetime showdown on Monday, October 27, as the Washington Commanders travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. 

According to BUSR, the Chiefs are listed as -10 home favorites with a total of 48.5 points. This Week 8 matchup brings together two teams heading in opposite directions. Kansas City has won four of its last five, while Washington is searching for consistency after a rough divisional loss.

NFL Betting action will be heavy for this one, and both sides offer compelling NFL prop angles and situational trends. The Chiefs remain one of the NFL’s most balanced teams, ranking in the top ten in both scoring offense and defense. At the same time, the Commanders have shown flashes behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, but continue to struggle defensively. Let’s break down both sides and deliver a data-driven Commanders vs Chiefs prediction for Monday Night Football.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

 

The Kansas City Chiefs enter this matchup 4-3 on the season, sitting second in the AFC West and owning a 3-1 home record. They are 4-3 against the spread and have gone 3-4 on totals. Kansas City is coming off a dominant 31-0 shutout over the Las Vegas Raiders, one of their most complete games this season. 

Offensively, they average 26.6 points per game, ranking seventh in the league, while their defense has been elite, allowing only 17.7 points per game, third-best in the NFL. The Chiefs average 370.6 total yards per contest (247.1 passing, 123.4 rushing) and allow only 280.3 total yards to opponents (105.7 rushing, 174.6 passing).

 

A Record-Breaking Season for Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes remains the engine of this team, throwing for 1,800 yards with a 66.1% completion rate and 14 touchdowns. He’s surpassed 257 passing yards in nine straight October home games and recorded 24+ completions in seven consecutive Monday appearances. Travis Kelce continues to be a consistent target, with 31 receptions for 375 yards and two touchdowns, recording 43+ receiving yards in each of the last 14 home games as a favorite of more than a touchdown. 

Isiah Pacheco complements the aerial attack with 271 rushing yards, while veteran Kareem Hunt has been effective in situational carries, logging at least 33 rushing yards in nine straight Monday appearances.

Kansas City’s defense has been steady all season, powered by Nick Bolton’s 55 tackles and George Karlaftis III’s 3.5 sacks. Their opportunistic secondary features four players with interceptions: Trent McDuffie, Leo Chenal, Jaylen Watson, and Christian Roland-Wallace, giving Steve Spagnuolo plenty of coverage flexibility. At Arrowhead, the Chiefs thrive in rhythm. They’ve scored the first touchdown in seven straight games as home favorites and won the first half in 11 consecutive home games against NFC opponents. Historically, Kansas City has covered eight straight October games against NFC competition, a trend that underscores their reliability at this point in the season.

Mahomes’ consistency and Andy Reid’s ability to design mismatches remain their most significant edge. Kansas City has scored three or more touchdowns in four consecutive games, the league’s longest active streak entering Week 8. 

The Chiefs are also the only team with three players surpassing 200 rushing yards (Mahomes, Pacheco, Hunt), giving them multiple offensive layers. Their combination of discipline and versatility makes them one of the most reliable sides for bettors when favored by double digits at home.

 

Washington Commanders

 

The Washington Commanders enter at 3-4, sitting third in the NFC East. They are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 on totals, with a 2-1 home record and a 1-3 mark on the road. Washington is coming off a 44-22 loss to Dallas, where their defense gave up several explosive plays and struggled to contain the Cowboys’ ground attack. 

On the season, the Commanders average 25.7 points per game, ranking 10th in the league, but allow 24.3 points per game, ranking 21st. Their offense moves the ball effectively, averaging 345 total yards per game (196.1 passing, 148.9 rushing), but their defense yields 364.3 yards per game (126 rushing, 238.3 passing).

 

Without Daniels, will the Comms challenge the Chiefs?

Jayden Daniels continues to develop in his rookie season, throwing for 1,031 yards and eight touchdowns on 61% completions. His mobility adds another dimension, but he has struggled against top pass rushes. The running game has been a strength, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt leading the way at 377 rushing yards and four touchdowns, the most by a player through his first five career games since De’Von Achane in 2024. 

The receiving unit features Deebo Samuel, who’s been Washington’s most dangerous weapon, recording 34 receptions for 315 yards and three touchdowns. Samuel has scored in four straight road games and has topped 71 total yards in three consecutive October appearances as an underdog. Terry McLaurin provides reliability on the outside, recording 53+ receiving yards in seven straight October games.

 

Defensively Speaking

On defense, linebacker Bobby Wagner leads with 73 total tackles (33 solo), while Dorance Armstrong Jr. anchors the pass rush with 5.5 sacks. Cornerback Mike Sainristil has been opportunistic with two interceptions, but the secondary continues to give up big plays downfield. Washington’s defense ranks 21st in points allowed and struggles to finish drives, a major concern against Mahomes and the Chiefs’ red-zone efficiency.

From a betting angle, the Commanders have covered in eight of their last nine road games versus AFC opponents and have won four straight Monday games as underdogs. They tend to start slowly, losing the first quarter in eight straight road games, but often show second-half fight. If they can get early scoring from Deebo Samuel, who’s scored the first touchdown in four of his last five following a road loss, they can stay competitive. Washington’s ground game and clock control are their clearest paths to keeping this one inside the number.

 

Betting Prediction

 

Kansas City has dominated this matchup historically, winning all four previous meetings, including a 31-13 victory in 2021. The Chiefs have also won each of their last 11 home games against NFC opponents on a losing streak and covered eight straight October spreads versus NFC teams. The Commanders, meanwhile, have struggled as underdogs after divisional losses, failing to cover in seven of their last eight such spots.

From a total perspective, the trends split. Six straight October home games for the Chiefs have gone under, while eight of Washington’s last nine against AFC teams have gone over. The combination of Mahomes’ control and the Commanders’ defensive lapses makes the total line of 48.5 a true toss-up, depending on the game’s pace. 

Kansas City’s defense has kept every opponent below 20 points in four of seven games, and Washington’s offense tends to stall when playing from behind.

Mahomes’ player props remain strong angles for bettors, as he’s averaged more than 24 completions in his last seven Monday appearances. Travis Kelce’s consistency makes him a safe bet for 50+ receiving yards, while Marquise Brown offers touchdown upside, having scored in six consecutive October home games. 

For Washington, Deebo Samuel’s versatility makes him the key prop option. He’s recorded at least 13 rushing yards in five of his last six appearances following a loss and remains a candidate to score late in garbage-time drives.

The Commanders have shown improvement running the football, but the Chiefs’ defensive line should dominate early downs and put Daniels in long passing situations. Kansas City’s 3rd-ranked defense in points allowed and Mahomes’ sharp rhythm at home make it unlikely this turns into a shootout. The Chiefs’ pace control, balance, and opportunistic defense are the deciding factors.

Both teams enter Monday Night Football with clear identities. Kansas City has reestablished its offensive balance while maintaining one of the stingiest defenses in the league. Washington has shown flashes under Daniels but still lacks the depth to compete with elite AFC teams.

The Chiefs’ betting profile aligns perfectly with this setup: dominant at home, consistent against NFC opponents, and reliable in October. Washington’s recent struggles against upper-tier defenses and their 1-3 road record paint a tough outlook for keeping this game close. Expect Mahomes to surpass 250 yards with Kelce leading the receiving unit, while Kansas City’s front seven disrupts Daniels enough to create turnovers.

Kansas City has won and covered three straight home games and should make it four in a row. The Commanders’ running game may find some daylight early, but the Chiefs’ pace control and second-half execution will separate them on the scoreboard.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 (BUSR)


(The Chiefs’ third-ranked defense, balanced offense, and home-field dominance should continue, making them one of the stronger Week 8 plays in the NFL Betting market.)

 

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