NFL Draft Shockers: 6 First-Round Rookie Analysis

NEWSNFL
July 2, 2025

2025 NFL Draft Shockers: 6 First-Round Picks Who Could Flop as Rookies

 

The hype from the 2025 NFL Draft still lingers, but that wave of optimism won’t last forever. As NFL teams gear up for training camp, sportsbooks are already shifting NFL Odds based on perceived rookie impact. However, not every first-round pick will live up to the expectations placed on them in Year 1. 

NFL Betting markets might be reacting to potential that won’t pay off immediately. It’s a cold truth every season delivers: some top selections will stumble out of the gate.

That reality sets in long before a single down is played. Every year, promising prospects are handed starring roles before they’re ready. Whether it’s because of scheme fit, injury, or developmental delays, some rookies enter the league with red flags already raised. As training camp looms, six names from the 2025 first round already show signs they may struggle as rookies.

 

Shemar Stewart Already Falling Behind in Cincinnati

 

No rookie has more off-field baggage entering the season than Cincinnati Bengals first-round pick Shemar Stewart. Drafted 17th overall, Stewart remains unsigned due to a contract dispute. His absence from every team activity, including mandatory minicamp, has robbed him of valuable development time.

Stewart didn’t hold back when addressing the standoff. He criticized the Bengals organization for being more concerned with contract language than building a winning culture. Meanwhile, the team also faces potential fallout with veteran Trey Hendrickson, who could be traded. If that happens, Stewart could be thrust into a starting role he’s not prepared for.

Stewart’s evaluators noted his limited pass-rushing repertoire and stiff lower body, which makes bending the edge difficult. With no professional reps under his belt and raw mechanics still needing refinement, Stewart is a developmental prospect expected to contribute far too early.

 

Colston Loveland Already Playing Catch-Up in Chicago

 

The Chicago Bears used the 10th pick in the draft on tight end Colston Loveland, a promising athlete with strong hands and route-running ability. However, he enters his rookie year recovering from offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum and reconstruct his AC joint capsule. That procedure kept him out of rookie camp, OTAs, and mandatory minicamp.

Bears head coach Ben Johnson praised Loveland’s professionalism and mental engagement, but his absence from on-field work leaves him behind. Tight end is notoriously tricky for rookies to master, as it requires a complete understanding of pass routes, run blocking, and pass protection. Even under ideal circumstances, rookies at the position struggle to produce early. With veteran Cole Kmet entrenched as the starter, Chicago has no reason to rush Loveland’s integration. The Bears know they drafted the top tight end in the class, but his real value may not show up until the back half of the season.

 

Maxwell Hairston Must Overcome Size and Physicality Concerns in Buffalo

 

The Buffalo Bills took a calculated swing by selecting cornerback Maxwell Hairston with the 30th pick. His elite straight-line speed intrigued evaluators, but speed alone doesn’t guarantee success at the corner. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich praised Hairston’s progress in reading plays and playing faster, but consistency is still a significant concern.

Scouting reports revealed recurring issues with Hairston’s tackling. While he doesn’t shy away from contact, his technique falters in open space, and he often avoids aggressive run support. At 183 pounds, Hairston’s slight frame and past shoulder issues raise concerns about durability. Competing against veterans like Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford, Hairston is likely to see action early. But whether he holds up over a full season is a massive unknown.

 

Mykel Williams Needs Time Before Becoming the 49ers’ Answer Off the Edge

 

The San Francisco 49ers shocked some draft watchers by taking Mykel Williams 11th overall. The former Georgia standout entered the 2024 season with top-pick buzz, but inconsistent play and a high-ankle sprain derailed those projections. Williams moved from interior lineman to edge rusher last year, though he still spent significant time playing the 4i alignment.

His raw traits stand out, but his technique lags far behind. He pointed to sub-par hand usage and a lack of go-to pass-rushing moves. While Williams flashes power and athleticism, he rarely beats offensive tackles with anything other than brute strength. 

The opportunity to play opposite Nick Bosa is ideal, but that doesn’t guarantee rookie success. Williams might thrive in run defense early, but his pass-rushing development could take another full season.

 

Kenneth Grant May Not Justify Top-15 Draft Status in Miami

 

When the Miami Dolphins selected nose tackle Kenneth Grant with the 13th pick, they were betting on his ability to dominate the interior and absorb blocks. At 6’4″ and 331 pounds, Grant has the frame to be a difference-maker, but his upside as a top-tier defender remains in question.

Compared to players like Dexter Lawrence or Haloti Ngata, Grant falls short in both agility and pass-rush versatility.

Scouting reports raised issues with Grant’s lateral movement and his tendency to get reached by quicker offensive linemen in outside zone schemes. While he can be a force in bull rushing when his pad level is correct, that technical consistency isn’t there yet. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel acknowledged both the early flashes and the amount of work Grant has ahead of him. 

Being a two-down space eater isn’t enough when drafted inside the top 15. For Grant to return real value on his draft slot, he must evolve into a full-time contributor.

 

Kelvin Banks Jr. Faces a Rocky Start in New Orleans

 

The New Orleans Saints used the ninth overall pick to land Texas left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., hoping to anchor a shaky offensive line. Early minicamp reps suggest he’ll settle in at left tackle, pushing Trevor Penning to left guard and Taliese Fuaga to right tackle, while Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz hold down the interior. The Saints are betting on Banks to be the glue that holds the entire unit together.

But his college tape raises concerns. Bleacher Report scout Brandon Thorn noted that while Banks has movement skills, he lacks consistent finishing ability and lower-body strength. 

Thorn questioned Banks’ ability to sustain blocks and anchor against power rushers, describing him as vulnerable to long-arm techniques that expose his balance. Banks may ultimately become a solid pro, but he isn’t the kind of plug-and-play left tackle typically taken inside the top 10. His early struggles protecting the blind side could have ripple effects across the entire New Orleans offense.

 

Don’t Be Fooled by Rookie Hype

 

The 2025 rookie class features future stars, but the NFL Betting market often overreacts to first-round hype. Each of these players carries name value and draft pedigree, both of which influence early betting lines. 

That doesn’t mean they’ll produce immediately. For bettors evaluating team win totals or player props, tempering expectations is crucial. Rookies drafted high are often projected to make instant impacts, but situations, schemes, and injury recoveries can all delay that timeline.

NFL Future Lines may be leaning heavily into rookie narratives, but savvy bettors know how to spot risk. A player like Banks Jr. stepping into a crucial role with technical flaws could alter how the Saints perform against the spread. 

Similarly, Loveland’s delay in joining the Bears offense affects both team scoring props and tight end production totals. Betting on unproven talent is always a gamble, and in these six cases, early caution might pay dividends.

The NFL Draft brings hope. But hope isn’t a betting strategy. Watch closely, wager wisely, and remember: not every first-rounder is built to shine right away.

 

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