2026 Kentucky Derby Prep Races Leaderboard
The Grueling Road to the Roses Begins
The pursuit of the coveted blanket of roses for the Kentucky Derby champion demands rigorous preparation, starting months before the first Saturday in May. Every year, horse racing enthusiasts and seasoned bettors turn their attention to the “Road to the Kentucky Derby,” a meticulously structured series of qualifying races that determines which 20 elite three-year-olds earn a gate in the starting field.
These Kentucky Derby prep races do not merely serve as tune-ups; they are highly competitive, fiercely contested proving grounds where speed, stamina, and mental fortitude face their ultimate early tests. Accumulating points becomes the singular, vital mission for every barn aiming for glory at Churchill Downs. The structure of these preliminary events ensures only the most proven athletes ascend to the required position on the leaderboard.
This early stage of the campaign, which concludes the juvenile season and kicks off the crucial three-year-old year, lays the foundation for determining the ultimate Kentucky Derby contenders. The early races, often offering 10-4-2-1 or 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top finishers, reward aggressive participation and consistent performance, even for horses not yet ready to dominate.
We now have our first look at the pecking order after several key initial point-scoring events. The following analysis dives deep into the performances of the horses that have secured their first essential points, moving them one step closer to securing a coveted spot as Kentucky Derby entries. We break down their defining early-season efforts, examine the tactical moves of their trainers, and predict what these initial performances suggest for their futures on the Triple Crown trail.
Information Updated to November 11th, 2025
Ted Noffey Launches Into the Lead with a Commanding 40-Point Performance
Leading the charge and establishing a formidable early benchmark is Ted Noffey, trained by the consistently dominant Todd A. Pletcher. Ted Noffey rockets to the top of the leaderboard with an impressive 40 points, a total signaling a dominant victory in one of the most significant early prep events. Pletcher’s training regimen systematically targets these point-rich races, demonstrating an uncanny ability to have a horse peaking precisely when the opportunity for a massive points haul presents itself. We look closely at the race that delivered this immense point total. Ted Noffey executed a flawless, professional performance, sitting just off a rapid pace set by a couple of front-running rivals. Jockey maintained a perfect position three-wide on the turn, allowing the colt to navigate traffic effortlessly.
As the field straightened for the drive in the homestretch, Ted Noffey exploded, effortlessly switching leads and leaving his competition floundering in the final furlong. He did not merely win; he dictated the pace late, stamping his authority on the division with a decisive gap back to the second-place runner.
The final time confirmed the quality of the effort, indicating both significant raw speed and the deep-closing stamina required for the 1 1/4 miles of the Derby. This performance instantly confirms Ted Noffey as a genuine threat among current participants in Kentucky Derby prep races. Pletcher must now manage the horse carefully, balancing the need for continued conditioning with the preservation of his current brilliance. The horse earned his spot at the top, and rival trainers must now devise strategies to overcome this early pace-setter among the Kentucky Derby contenders.
Mr. A.P. and Intrepido Demonstrate the Value of Consistent Placement
The second and third spots are held by Mr. A.P. and Intrepido, with 15 and 13 points, respectively. These specific point totals offer a fascinating glimpse into the early-season strategy employed by their connections. Fifteen points typically result from a victory in a 10-point race and a minor placing (like a third or fourth) in a less-scoring event, or perhaps a strong second-place finish in a 20-point race.
Mr. A.P., under the guidance of Vladimir Cerin, has clearly capitalized on multiple outings. His 15 points suggest the colt possesses an admirable level of consistency and durability, qualities essential for the arduous grind of the Triple Crown trail. His defining performance likely involved a grinding effort, making a sustained middle move to wear down front-runners before holding off a late challenger. He showcases tremendous heart.
Intrepido, trained by Jeff Mullins, sitting close behind with 13 points, also highlights the importance of picking up points wherever possible. Thirteen points could translate to a second-place finish in a 10-point race and a fourth-place finish in another, or a combination of third and fourth placings in higher-value events. This horse’s racing style often involves rallying from the back of the field, a strategy that occasionally gets complicated by traffic but maximizes his powerful late run. In the race where he accumulated his biggest haul, Intrepido encountered significant trouble on the far turn. Yet, his determined rider managed to extricate him in time to unleash a furious, ground-consuming surge that propelled him into the money. Both Mr. A.P. and Intrepido solidify their positions among the top Kentucky Derby prep races horses by leveraging their tactical versatility and raw staying power across multiple distance tests. They are certainly strong Kentucky Derby contenders.
The Ten-Point Club: Victors Secure Their Early Stakes
A highly competitive group follows, highlighted by Spice Runner (11 points), Napoleon Solo (10 points), and Incredibolt (10 points). Achieving 10 points usually signifies a victory in a standalone early stakes race, like a recognized Grade 3 or a traditional qualifying event.
Steven M. Asmussen guides Spice Runner, who has accumulated 11 points, likely from a stakes win combined with a single point from a lower-scoring race. Spice Runner displayed remarkable tactical speed in his 10-point victory, rating patiently just behind the leader and conserving energy until the precise moment the jockey asked him for an effort. He easily changed gears, demonstrating a sharp turn of foot that separated him from the field at the sixteenth pole.
Napoleon Solo, conditioned by Chad Summers, and Incredibolt, trained by Riley Mott, both enter the top ranks by claiming important 10-point victories. Napoleon Solo delivered a gutsy, wire-to-wire performance, setting moderate fractions and then turning back every challenge through the final quarter-mile. This style demands exceptional early speed and immense stamina reserves, proving the horse’s ability to handle pressure from the gate to the finish line.
Incredibolt, conversely, took a completely different approach, relying on a sustained, wide run around the final turn. His jockey made a bold move on the outside, and Incredibolt responded with a powerful, sustained drive that saw him sweep past the tiring leaders. These three horses instantly become exciting Kentucky Derby entries possibilities, proving they understand how to win under pressure. They have banked points and confidence, setting up strong campaigns in the upcoming, more valuable Kentucky Derby prep races.
The Baffert Contingent and the Strategy of Incremental Gains
A significant portion of the early leaderboard showcases the strategic accumulation of minor points, a tactic frequently employed by powerhouse barns to position multiple colts for future success. Bob Baffert, even with his horses currently ineligible for points, still showcases his dominance in the division with Litmus Test (9 points), Brant (9 points), Desert Gate (5 points), and Plutarch (3 points).
Litmus Test and Brant, each securing 9 points, likely achieved a second-place finish in a 5-point race and another minor placing. This indicates excellent talent but perhaps not the definitive closing ability of a winner yet. They consistently finish near the top, grinding out essential points while preserving fitness for the larger, more important Grade 1 prep races later in the season. Baffert’s runners consistently demonstrate high-level training, running well regardless of the competition.
Kenneth G. McPeek’s barn also features prominently in this point-accumulation strategy with Universe (8 points), Blackout Time (5 points), and Very Connected (3 points). Universe, with 8 points, likely landed two second-place finishes in 4-point races, suggesting an undeniable ability to threaten the leaders without securing the outright win. McPeek must now find the perfect spot for Universe to break through. Blackout Time, with 5 points, and Very Connected, with 3 points, also performed solidly, gaining experience and conditioning in high-pressure stakes environments.
These early finishes serve multiple purposes: they harden the colts, provide invaluable race experience, and, most importantly, start the point tally. Every single point gained now reduces the pressure during the high-stakes 100-point and 50-point races later in the campaign. The connections of these promising Kentucky Derby contenders realize the necessity of the long game.
Deeper Dive into the Minor Point Accumulators
The lower half of the leaderboard, comprised of horses with 5 points or less, requires close examination because these are the horses often flying under the radar, preparing to launch a major upset. Comport (5 points), trained by Eddie Kenneally, and Talkin (5 points), under the care of Danny Gargan, both earned their scores with solid mid-pack finishes, likely securing third or fourth place in a 20-point event. These horses showed grit, competing against the eventual winners but simply not finding the top gear in the final stages. Their performances suggest they have the raw talent and are only a step away from a breakthrough. Kenneally and Gargan indeed continue to sharpen them, aiming for peak performance in a late spring stakes race.
Below the 5 Points
Vost (3 points), trained by William Walden, and the remaining 2-point finishers—Diciassette, I Did I Did, It’s Our Time, and Civil Liberty—have all earned crucial experience. Two points, typically awarded for a fourth-place finish in a 10-point race, represent a small but significant initial step. For instance, Civil Liberty, representing Doug F. O’Neill’s barn, made a late charge that earned him two points, navigating traffic and demonstrating a keen acceleration that hints at untapped potential. Patrick L. Biancone’s Diciassette fought bravely through the lane, holding its position against numerous challenges to secure its two points. These are the Kentucky Derby entries that bettors must watch closely; their low point totals now do not reflect their potential for a massive performance in a subsequent 50 or 100-point race, where one big run could instantly vault them into the starting gate. The strategy here is patience and conditioning, slowly building toward the ultimate prize.
Position Horse Trainer Points 1 Ted Noffey Todd A. Pletcher 40 2 Mr. A.P. Vladimir Cerin 15 3 Intrepido Jeff Mullins 13 4 Spice Runner Steven M. Asmussen 11 5 Napoleon Solo Chad Summers 10 6 Incredibolt Riley Mott 10 7 Litmus Test Bob Baffert 9 8 Brant Bob Baffert 9 9 Universe Kenneth G. McPeek 8 10 Comport Eddie Kenneally 5 11 Desert Gate Bob Baffert 5 12 Blackout Time Kenneth G. McPeek 5 13 Talkin Danny Gargan 5 14 Very Connected Kenneth G. McPeek 3 15 Vost William Walden 3 16 Plutarch Bob Baffert 3 17 Diciassette Patrick L. Biancone 2 18 I Did I Did Michael Maker 2 19 It’s Our Time Thomas M. Amoss 2 20 Civil Liberty Doug F. O’Neill 2
Trainer Strategies and the Early Season Blueprint
The initial leaderboard reveals a clear blueprint for success among leading trainers. Pletcher aims for early dominance, seizing a major points score to relieve pressure. Trainers like McPeek and Cerin prefer to maximize opportunities by entering their colts in multiple events, thereby gathering points incrementally, confirming fitness, and testing various track surfaces and distances.
Every trainer, from the established champions like Pletcher to rising stars like Riley Mott, understands that the 150-200 point threshold is the ultimate target. A horse achieving 40 points in an early Kentucky Derby prep races immediately gains an advantage, allowing the connections greater flexibility in planning the remaining schedule. They can afford to give the horse a longer rest or bypass a less suitable track.
Conversely, the horses sitting with 10 points or less need a precise plan and a considerable effort in the following sequence of stakes. They cannot afford to miss the board in a 50-point race. Every single point becomes a lifeline, keeping their dream of being among the 20 Kentucky Derby contenders alive. The competition now intensifies as we move from the juvenile distance races to the two-turn mile and a sixteenth events of the new year.
These longer, more challenging races truly separate the sprinters from the stayers, defining the true stamina credentials of the potential Kentucky Derby entries. We watch eagerly as the leaderboard evolves, documenting every move on this challenging and rewarding path.
Do Not Miss a Single Update on the Road to the Kentucky Derby
The leaderboard you have just reviewed represents only the very beginning of a thrilling, six-month campaign. The points values for the remaining Kentucky Derby prep races will multiply dramatically, with future events awarding 20, 50, and eventually 100 points to the winner. One single victory in a primary race can entirely rewrite this list. Ted Noffey holds the early advantage, but dozens of highly talented colts wait in the wings, ready to make their move.
You need real-time data and expert analysis to stay ahead of the curve, guiding your betting strategies and informing your handicapping decisions. Every primary prep race, every key workout, and every scratch can shift the odds and alter the composition of the final field.
Do not rely on outdated information or generic reports. We continuously track every development on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, providing immediate, deep-dive analysis like this after every single points race. Stay tuned to BUSR News and gain instant access to exclusive expert picks, detailed race breakdowns, and the constantly updated leaderboard.
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