MLB Odds Breakdown Before the Trade Deadline

MLBNEWS
July 28, 2025

What Every MLB Contender Needs to Do Before the Trade Deadline

 

The countdown is on: teams prepare for the final sprint toward October

 

With just one week to go until the MLB trade deadline (July 31), all eyes are on the moves that contending teams will make. In a season where every reinforcement can tip the balance, the decisions made now could define the playoff race—and also impact each franchise’s MLB Odds.

Below, we break down what each team with at least a 30% chance of making the playoffs needs, according to the latest projections.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers: A powerhouse with one weakness

 

  • Record: 59-43
  • Playoff odds: 99%
  • Needs: Left field, bullpen depth

 

Even with their overwhelming status as playoff favorites—reflected in MLB Lines of -10000—the Dodgers still have some weaknesses. Michael Conforto has struggled in left field, which could prove costly in October. A left-handed outfield bat and bullpen help—especially after Tanner Scott’s injury—are key.

Value tip for bettors: If the Los Angeles Dodgers strengthen their bullpen with someone like Kenley Jansen or Emmanuel Clase, their MLB Betting odds to win the National League could improve even more. 

 

Detroit Tigers: The Central’s surprise powerhouse

 

  • Record: 60-42
  • Playoff odds: 98%
  • Needs: Relievers, back-end starters

 

The Detroit Tigers are dominating the AL Central. With MLB Lines of -20000 to make the playoffs, their path seems secure. However, the bullpen has its weaknesses: a 4.06 team ERA and the worst strikeout rate in the AL (7.7 K/9).

Key note for bettors: If Detroit adds a top-tier closer like Bednar or Clase, not only will they lock in the division, but their MLB odds to win the American League could rise sharply.

 

Chicago Cubs: Explosive offense—except at third

 

  • Record: 60-41
  • Playoff odds: 97%
  • Needs: Third base, rotation depth

 

The Chicago Cubs have the best offense in the NL, but their production at third base is severely lacking. Matt Shaw hasn’t delivered, and they need a dependable bat there. Adding rotation depth would also help.

Betting tip: If Chicago lands a hitter like Nolan Arenado, their MLB Odds to win the World Series could get a substantial boost.

 

Houston Astros: Plenty of power—but all from the right

 

  • Record: 59-42
  • Playoff odds: 95%
  • Needs: Left-handed bats, third base

 

The Houston Astros need lineup balance. With most of their hitters batting right-handed, a lefty like Josh Naylor or Bryan Reynolds could be the perfect complement. The injury to Isaac Paredes also pushes them to seek help at third.

Relevant MLB Lines: Houston is at -1400 to reach the playoffs, but a substantial acquisition could make them AL favorites.

 

New York Yankees: Time to reinforce—urgently

 

  • Record: 56-45
  • Playoff odds: 92%
  • Needs: Third base, bullpen, rotation

 

The New York Yankees are still favorites to win the AL East (MLB Lines  -120), but the hole at third and the lack of fresh arms in the bullpen are concerning. With LeMahieu gone, Cashman must act quickly.

For smart bettors: If the Yankees secure a reliable starter and a dependable reliever, they could represent great value in league or World Series bets.

 

Toronto Blue Jays: Power is the missing piece

 

Record: 59-42

Playoff odds: 92%

Needs: Power, bullpen, rotation depth

 

They’ve hit just 105 home runs this season—low for a team trying to compete at the top. The bullpen is also an issue due to concerns about injuries. MLB Odds are -400, but could worsen without reinforcements.

 

Milwaukee Brewers: Great pitching, not enough power

 

  • Record: 60-41
  • Playoff odds: 93%
  • Needs: Power-hitting outfielders

 

Despite ranking seventh in runs, the Brewers are among the worst in home runs. Sal Frelick’s injury creates an opportunity for the team to bring in a power hitter.

Strategic bet: Milwaukee Brewers have  MLB Lines of -330 to make the playoffs. If they acquire a bat like Adolis García or Marcell Ozuna, they could become a hidden gem in league championship bets.

 

New York Mets: Holes everywhere

 

  • Record: 58-44
  • Playoff odds: 89%
  • Needs: Second base, third base, starting pitching

 

The New York Mets‘ rotation is in crisis due to injuries and underperformance. They also need stability in the infield. Their current MLB Betting of -650 could improve with a strong arm like Zac Gallen or Mitch Keller.

 

Philadelphia Phillies: Bullpen help is urgent

 

  • Record: 58-43
  • Playoff odds: 94%
  • Needs: Outfield, relievers

 

With José Alvarado suspended and Romano underperforming, the bullpen is the top concern. A lefty-hitting outfielder is also essential. Don’t be surprised if Jarren Duran or Cedric Mullins become top targets.

MLB Odds: At -1000, the Philadelphia Phillies are in good shape, but without bullpen help, long-term bets lose value.

 

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: Battle for the last wild card spot

 

  • Padres record: 55-46 / MLB Lines: -145
  • Giants record: 53-49 / MLB Betting: -110

 

Both are fighting for the final NL wild-card spot. The San Diego Padres need help in left field and at catcher, while the San Francisco Giants desperately need more offense.

Bettors, take note: If either team makes a big move in the coming days, their MLB Betting could change dramatically—an ideal moment for short-term bets.

 

Other Teams on the Radar

 

 

What Do MLB Odds Tell Us Overall?

 

The top favorites—Dodgers, Cubs, Tigers—have short odds with little immediate upside. But the betting market is full of mid-tier teams just one key trade away from reshaping their destiny, like the Padres, Mariners, Mets, or Rays.

The key is to anticipate trades, take advantage of early lines before adjustments are made, and closely monitor the market. MLB Lines don’t lie—but they don’t tell the whole story either… until the rotation shifts or a key bat arrives.

 

The Week That Will Define Your Bet

 

If you’re betting on MLB, this is one of the most critical weeks of the year. The teams that make the smartest moves won’t just improve their playoff chances—they’ll offer incredible value in division, league, and World Series futures bets.

 

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