Week 10 Monday Night Football Odds: Raiders vs Broncos

NFL
November 5, 2025

NFL TNF Odds Week 10: Raiders vs Broncos Betting Analysis

 

Week 10 brings an AFC West divisional showdown on Thursday Night Football as the Denver Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field. 

The latest NFL Odds from BUSR list the Broncos as 9-point favorites at -110 on both sides of the spread. The total is set at 43 points, also priced evenly at -110 for both the over and under. On the moneyline, Denver is heavily favored at -510, while Las Vegas carries +374 odds as a significant underdog.

This matchup carries a blend of betting intrigue and divisional familiarity. For NFL Betting fans, large spreads in division games often present value opportunities, especially when one team, like the Raiders, appears far more competitive than their record suggests.

 Even as Denver sits atop the AFC West, the line movement and money distribution suggest that sharp bettors expect a closer game than casual fans might assume.

 

Las Vegas Raiders (+9) vs Denver Broncos (-9)

The storylines for this week’s Thursday Night Football game run deep. The preseason bet on the Raiders to finish last in the division at -140 looks as secure as any wager placed this summer, but that doesn’t mean Las Vegas is an automatic fade against the spread. Despite their struggles, the Raiders have shown resilience, losing two games by only one point,  against the Jaguars and Bears, and staying competitive deep into the fourth quarter.

The most recent loss to Jacksonville was particularly painful. Las Vegas fell victim to an NFL-record field goal, then had its game-winning two-point conversion swatted down at the line by a defensive lineman at the bottom of his jump. It encapsulated the kind of season the Raiders have endured: close enough to threaten, yet consistently short of delivering the upset.

Pete Carroll’s arrival as head coach was meant to bring stability and instant improvement, but the team’s offensive chemistry has lagged. The decision to bring in Geno Smith to run the offense hasn’t yielded the results they hoped for. Smith, now 33, leads the league with 11 interceptions over eight starts. 

The lack of depth at receiver compared to his time in Seattle has amplified his mistakes. However, his four-touchdown performance last week,  including three to tight end Brock Bowers, showed that there’s still potential in this offense when rhythm develops.

 

Denver Broncos’ Recent Form and NFL Betting Angle

Denver’s 7-2 record tells one story, but its recent performances reveal another. The Broncos escaped Houston in Week 9 thanks to a sequence of events that could have gone either way. C.J. Stroud’s early rhythm challenged Denver’s defense before a clean but devastating hit removed him from the game, shifting momentum completely. The Broncos capitalized on the backup quarterback’s limited arm strength, tightening coverage and grinding out an 18-15 victory.

Still, it’s hard to discredit the Broncos for executing when it mattered. Their defensive front remains among the NFL’s best at generating pressure without blitzing. The combination of Nik Bonitto and Baron Browning has turned opposing pockets into chaos. That pressure could define Thursday’s game, especially against Geno Smith, who has already been sacked more than most quarterbacks in the league.

Patrick Surtain II’s strained pectoral muscle continues to limit his availability, and he’s unlikely to play on the short week. His absence affects how Denver can align its secondary, particularly in man coverage. Even with that setback, the Broncos’ pass rush has often been so quick that opposing quarterbacks don’t have time to exploit mismatches. Against a turnover-prone Smith, that could produce short fields and scoring opportunities for Denver’s offense.

 

Line Movement and Betting Trends

This matchup opened at Broncos -9.5 before sharp bettors grabbed the Raiders plus the points, forcing the number down to -9. While 75 percent of tickets remain on the favorite, the money split indicates a sharper divide among professionals and the public. That’s typical of divisional games with inflated spreads, as experienced NFL Betting players understand that familiarity often narrows margins, even in mismatched contests.

The total opened at 42 points and climbed slightly to 43, with around 60 percent of the tickets and money on the over. The market expects both teams to move the ball effectively at times, especially if turnovers or special teams play set up short drives. 

Denver’s games have trended toward the under this season, but facing a defense like Las Vegas that allows explosive plays could shift that pattern. Bettors should monitor weather conditions and inactives before committing, but as of now, NFL odds makers are holding firm on the total.

 

Raiders’ Path to Covering the Spread

For Las Vegas, staying within nine points will require composure and protection. Geno Smith must avoid turnovers against a Denver defense that feeds off short fields. The offensive line’s ability to handle the Broncos’ edge rushers is the key matchup to watch. Denver’s pass rush ranks among the top units in football, and Smith’s tendency to force passes under pressure has been costly.

Still, the Raiders’ offense isn’t without promise. Brock Bowers’ return gives them a reliable red-zone target, and his chemistry with Smith showed up in last week’s four-touchdown outing. The Raiders’ aerial attack can move the ball, but their inability to sustain the run game leaves them one-dimensional. If they can avoid early deficits, play-action could open up opportunities against a Denver defense forced to respect short passes and screens.

Defensively, the Raiders remain better than their record suggests. Over the last three games, they’ve played at a middle-of-the-pack level in both rushing and passing defense. The losses to Jacksonville and Chicago were one-point heartbreakers rather than blowouts. Their defense kept them competitive into the final minutes, which bodes well for a game where they enter as near double-digit underdogs.

 

Broncos’ Keys to Winning and Covering

Denver’s strategy will likely revolve around controlling the tempo and forcing Las Vegas into predictable passing situations. Offensively, Bo Nix continues to progress as a rhythm passer, benefiting from short fields created by his defense. While not a prolific unit, the Broncos’ offense thrives when it can rely on scripted drives and balanced play-calling.

The Broncos lead the league in third-down conversions, an area that often defines betting outcomes for spreads this large. Sustaining drives keeps their defense fresh and limits the variance created by explosive plays. The Raiders, by contrast, sit near the bottom of the league in conversion rate, and that discrepancy often translates into point differential. If Denver maintains that efficiency, it could wear down Las Vegas in the second half.

However, this is still a divisional matchup on a short week, which historically favors underdogs. Denver’s defensive front will dominate stretches of play, but maintaining energy for four quarters after a physical game in Houston is no guarantee. The Raiders’ offensive line will aim to exploit fatigue and extend drives late.

 

Game Prediction and Betting Pick

Divisional games with spreads this wide always create tension for bettors. Public money tends to favor the stronger team, while professionals focus on the situational value of the underdog. The Broncos are clearly superior in both efficiency and defensive execution, but this line feels inflated for a short-week divisional spot.

The Raiders’ recent heartbreaks hide a team that’s been far more competitive than the standings imply. Their last two losses came by a combined two points, and they’ve been within one score entering the fourth quarter in multiple games. Geno Smith’s turnover tendencies are a concern, but the return of Bowers and a resilient defense give them enough to hang around.

Denver will likely win this game outright, but covering nine points against a divisional rival that still fights hard for its coach feels ambitious. The Broncos’ defense will pressure Smith into mistakes, but the Raiders’ late-game resilience should help them stay close enough for a backdoor cover.

 

Pick:  Las Vegas Raiders (+9). 

It’s too many points for a divisional matchup, especially on a short week, and NFL Betting history shows that spreads this large tend to favor the underdog in tight, physical AFC West games.

 

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