UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Odds, Props & Best Bets
Latest Betting Odds – Moneyline, Method of Victory & Total
This five-round main event is for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his title in a rematch against former champion Petr Yan.
| BUSR | Merab Dvalishvili | Petr Yan |
| Moneyline | -450 | +330 |
| Fight Goes Distance? | Yes (-410) / No (+280) | – |
| Method of Victory | Dvalishvili by Decision (-275) | Yan by Decision (+500) |
The UFC 323 Odds for this contest were last updated from BUSR on Friday, December 5, 2025.
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Champion Overview – Merab Dvalishvili
Form & Stats
- – Record: 21-4 overall, 14-2 in the UFC.
- – Win Streak: Currently on an incredible 14-fight winning streak.
- – Goal: Has successfully defended the UFC Bantamweight Championship three times in 2025 (vs. Umar Nurmagomedov, vs. Sean O’Malley 2, vs. Cory Sandhagen). A victory here would be his fourth defense in 2025, a rare feat.
- – Key Stats:
- – Takedown Average (TD Avg.): 6.40 per 15 minutes.
- – UFC Record: Holds the UFC record for most career takedowns landed (117).
- – Takedown Defense: 82%
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- – Record-Breaking Volume: Set the UFC record for most takedowns attempted in a fight (49) in the first fight against Yan.
- – Relentless Pace/Cardio: Unmatched output; his last win against Cory Sandhagen included 20 successful takedowns (tied for second most in a UFC bout).
- – Recent Improvement: Has shown career-best striking in his last two victories (vs. O’Malley, vs. Sandhagen), complementing his elite wrestling.
Weaknesses:
- – Finish Rate: 76.2% of his 21 career wins are by decision. He often wins by grinding decision.
Challenger Overview – Petr Yan
Form & Stats
- – Record: 19-5 overall, 11-4 in the UFC.
- – Current Form: Undefeated in three fights since his loss to Dvalishvili (vs. Yadong Song, vs. Deiveson Figueiredo, vs. Marcus McGhee).
- – Key Stats:
- Takedown Defense: 85% .
- Striking: Elite, technical kickboxer who excels at stance switching and reading opponents.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Fight IQ: Yan historically “loses” the first round to gather information before pulling ahead in later rounds.
- Technical Striking: Arguably the cleanest, most diverse striking arsenal in the division.
Weaknesses:
- Volume Defense: His hands-high striking defense leaves his legs vulnerable to Merab’s wrestling entries, as seen in the first fight.
- Pace: He struggles to find rhythm when facing the nonstop pressure and pace that Dvalishvili provides.
Head-to-Head History (Rematch)
- – First Meeting (March 2023): Dvalishvili won by Unanimous Decision (50-45 on all scorecards).
- – First Fight Dominance:
- Dvalishvili out-struck Yan 147-75 in significant strikes.
- Dvalishvili landed 11 takedowns despite Yan’s strong defense.
Matchup Breakdown – Attack vs Defense
When Dvalishvili Attacks
- – Target: Merab’s attack is solely focused on volume and chaining strikes into takedown attempts. He will primarily target Yan’s legs to slow his movement, setting up his entry.
- – Takedown Entries: Merab averaged a staggering 49 takedown attempts in their first meeting, emphasizing that his attack strategy is to maintain constant physical pressure and volume until the defense breaks.
- – Cardio Constraint: Merab’s primary advantage is that his attack pace does not drop in the championship rounds, unlike Yan’s defensive output, which historically fades.
When Yan Attacks
- – Target: Yan’s attack is predicated on counter-striking and reading Dvalishvili’s rhythm. He will look to punish Merab as he exits or enters striking range, focusing on clean, technical combinations.
- – Defense Strategy: Yan must land powerful counter-strikes to earn Dvalishvili’s respect and discourage the relentless entry attempts. He needs high-impact strikes to win the striking exchanges on the judge’s scorecards.
- – Volume Constraint: Yan’s attack volume is inherently lower than Merab’s output, requiring his strikes to be significantly more damaging to negate the optics of Dvalishvili’s pressure.
Over/Under & Prop Bet Analysis
The line for the fight going OVER 4.5 Rounds is heavily juiced (-410), making a decision the most likely outcome.
- – Merab Dvalishvili has fought the full five rounds in his last seven championship-level and main event bouts.
- – Yan is incredibly durable. Given the high probability of a decision, the most profitable angles are in the Method of Victory and Performance Props.
Best Parlays
SGP Build 1: The Relentless Grind (Decision-Focused)
Rationale: Bets on Merab’s cardio and volume overwhelming Yan for a clear decision victory, a formula proven in their first meeting.
- Merab Dvalishvili To Win (Moneyline -450).
- Fight Goes Over 4.5 Rounds (High probability at -410).
- Dvalishvili by Decision (The most likely Method of Victory at approximately -275).
- Parlay Leg 4: Merab Dvalishvili To Land 4+ Takedowns (Merab landed 11 in the first fight and averages 6.40 TD Avg. per 15 mins).
SGP Build 2: The Upset Specialist (High-Value Yan)
Rationale: Relies on Yan’s ability to make high-level reads and capitalize on Dvalishvili’s increasing willingness to strike in the pocket.
- Petr Yan To Win (Moneyline +330).
- Fight Goes Over 4.5 Rounds (Yan’s style is to start slow and build, which favors a decision).
- Yan by Decision (Highest probability method for the underdog at approximately +500).
- Parlay Leg 4: Yan To Out-Strike Dvalishvili (Yan has a diverse arsenal and could edge the volume if Merab slows the grappling output in later rounds).
Prediction & Best Bet
Pick: SGP Build 1 – Dvalishvili To Win + Over 4.5 Rounds + Dvalishvili by Decision + Merab To Land 4+ Takedowns
Why: Merab Dvalishvili’s statistical advantages in pace, takedown volume (UFC record holder), and cardio have only become more pronounced since their first fight, making him the safest pick to win via decision in a five-round contest.
The Machine Rolls On?
The numbers don’t lie: Merab Dvalishvili is a relentless, record-breaking volume machine whose cardio and wrestling have only sharpened since his first dominant win over Petr Yan. The former champion has earned his rematch with a strong three-fight run and promises a new, aggressive game plan, but breaking The Machine’s non-stop pace is a tall order.
While Yan possesses the technical precision and fight IQ to spring an upset, the betting value remains firmly with the champion. The overwhelming odds on the Fight Goes Over 4.5 Rounds (-410) make the full 25 minutes almost certain, reinforcing the safety of a decision-focused wager.
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