2026 Virginia Oaks Preview: Odds, Picks & Kentucky Oaks Points on the Line at Colonial Downs

Colonial Downs | $250,000 Purse | 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt | Thursday, March 14, 2026

Six talented three-year-old fillies are set to compete in the 2026 Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Beyond a $250,000 purse, the winner earns 50 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points, which is essentially a guaranteed ticket to the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Friday in May. This is one of the most important prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, and it’s shaping up to be a fascinating contest between a Grade 1 winner, a hard-knocking closer, and a speed machine who has been demolishing her competition.

If you’re new to horse racing, don’t worry — we’ll break everything down clearly so you can follow along and enjoy every step of the way. And when you’re ready to get in on the action, get up to $1,500 today at BUSR.

🏇 Quick-Glance Key Takeaways

• Race: Virginia Oaks (2nd running on dirt) | Colonial Downs | $250,000 purse
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles around one turn
• Points on offer: 50-25-15-10-5 toward the Kentucky Oaks (G1)
• Morning-line favorite: Bottle of Rouge (6-5), trained by Bob Baffert
• Top picks: 1st Dazzling Dame | 2nd Bottle of Rouge | 3rd Hit Parade
• Where to bet: BUSR — Get Up to $1,500 Today

What Is the Virginia Oaks? And Why Does It Matter?

The Virginia Oaks is a prep race specifically for three-year-old fillies (young female horses) on their way to the Kentucky Oaks (G1); the filly equivalent of the Kentucky Derby, run at Churchill Downs the day before the Derby each year.

Think of the Road to the Kentucky Oaks like a playoff system: fillies accumulate points at select prep races throughout the country, and only the top 14 in points earn a spot in the Kentucky Oaks starting gate. Winning the Virginia Oaks is worth 50 points — more than enough to lock in a starting position.

This race was previously called the Commonwealth Oaks and was run at Laurel Park in Maryland, and for most of its history, it was contested on grass (turf). Last year, it moved to Colonial Downs’ main dirt track and joined the official Kentucky Oaks qualifying series. The 2025 edition was won by Fondly, trained by Graham Motion. She earned her 50 points, went on to win the Delaware Oaks (G3), and finished second in the Monmouth Oaks (G3).

Meet the Trainers: Big Names in a Small Field

One of the most interesting things about this six-horse field is the quality of the training talent involved. Four of racing’s most respected conditioners have horses in this race.

Bob Baffert

A Hall of Fame trainer and one of the most recognizable names in American horse racing, Baffert has saddled six Kentucky Derby winners. His entry here, Bottle of Rouge, is the morning-line favorite at 6-5 and already has three horses in the top 20 of the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard: Explora (No. 1, 95 points), Forced Entry (No. 5), and Bottle of Rouge (No. 20).

Todd Pletcher

Another Hall of Famer, Pletcher is one of the winningest trainers in history. He enters two fillies here,  Kadabra and Baffle, and also has strong Kentucky Oaks contenders elsewhere in She Be Smooth and Zany.

Brad Cox

Cox is a three-time Kentucky Oaks winner and one of the premier trainers in the country. He sends out Hit Parade, the 3-1 second choice, and also trains top Oaks contenders Paradise, On Time Girl, Sneaky Good, and Life of Joy.

Brittany Russell

Maryland’s leading trainer for three straight years, Russell has saddled winners totaling more than $33 million in earnings since getting her license in 2018. Her lone Grade 1 winner is Doppelganger, who took the 2023 Carter Stakes. Here she enters Dazzling Dame, who is currently sitting at No. 17 on the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard, just outside the bubble.

The Contenders: A Closer Look at Each Filly

🔴 Bottle of Rouge — 6-5 Favorite (Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat)

The clear favorite, and for good reason. Bottle of Rouge is the only graded stakes winner in this field, having won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) last September — a prestigious race for two-year-old fillies at Del Mar racetrack in California. She ran sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (also Grade 1) but bounced back smartly with a 1½-length win in the Sunland Park Derby to kick off her three-year-old season.

The gray daughter of Vino Rosso — the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion — carries the silks of trainer Bob Baffert’s wife, Jill Baffert. Her name is a nod to Harry Styles’ song “Grapejuice,” specifically the lyric “give me something old and red.” Her dam (mother) is Blues Corner, making the wine-themed name even more fitting.

“We always try to buy a filly for her every year,” Bob Baffert said of his wife, a big Harry Styles fan. “Some of them work out, some don’t.”

Jill Baffert has been a sole owner since 2002, with 70 winners and more than $4 million earned — including 2012 Test Stakes (G1) winner Contested. She purchased Bottle of Rouge for just $100,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, making this filly one of the best investments in the barn.

“I have had some really nice horses, but never a young horse with all the hopes and dreams that come with that,” Jill said. “The potential that may or may not come to fruition — that’s the exciting part.”

Bottle of Rouge broke her maiden at second asking and has shown she can compete at the highest level. She’s the class of this field.

🟢 Hit Parade — 3-1 (Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz, Jr.)

Owned by the prominent racing partnership of Gary and Mary West, Hit Parade is a daughter of Street Sense — a Kentucky Derby winner himself — and was one of the top fillies of 2025, winning three of four races, including the Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

She stumbled out of the gate in 2026, finishing fifth in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park — a performance that raised questions about her readiness. But trainer Brad Cox and Hall of Fame jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. are among the best in the business, and if Hit Parade can rebound to her best form, she’s a legitimate threat at 3-1.

🟡 Dazzling Dame — 5-2 (Brittany Russell / Jevian Toledo)

Don’t let the lack of a “big barn” fool you. Dazzling Dame has been absolutely dominant, scoring an 11½-length win in the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct in her last start. To put that margin in context, she ran the mile in 1:38.30 — more than three-fifths of a second faster than the three-year-old colts who ran the same distance in the Jerome Stakes on the same day.

Purchased for just $45,000 at the OBS March 2025 sale, the Girvin filly has won three stakes races: the Sorority at Monmouth, the White Clay Creek Stakes, and the Busanda. She’s a front-runner who goes right to the lead and doesn’t look back. At 5-2, she offers excellent value.

A win here would push her from No. 17 to inside the top 14 on the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard — putting her in the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

🔵 Kadabra — 6-1 (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez)

The Pletcher-trained filly most recently finished third behind stablemate Zany in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Running for one of the best trainers in the sport and with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard, Kadabra is a dangerous longshot who could outrun her odds if the pace sets up favorably. At 6-1, she’s worth including in exotic bets.

⚪ Baffle — 10-1 (Todd Pletcher / Rajiv Maragh)

Also trained by Pletcher for Repole Stable, Baffle is still looking for her first career win (maiden victory). She’s a longshot here but has the pedigree and connections to improve. Best used in wide exotic wagers.

⚫ Somemunny to Love — 20-1 (Flint Stites / Julio Hernandez)

The longest shot on the board, Somemunny to Love, is coming off a maiden win at Parx Racing in the Philadelphia area. Big class jumps here, but every race needs a Cinderella story. Use sparingly in large exotic tickets.

2026 Virginia Oaks: Full Odds & Entry Table

How the Race Will Likely Play Out (Pace Scenario)

Understanding pace (how fast the early part of a race is run) is one of the most important factors in handicapping horse races. Here’s what to watch for in the Virginia Oaks:

Dazzling Dame is the clear front-runner. She loves to lead from the start, and with no obvious speed horses to challenge her early, she could get a soft, uncontested lead. That’s a big advantage. When a front-runner gets easy fractions (slow early splits), they often have enough gas left to hold on at the finish.

Bottle of Rouge will likely sit just off the pace — meaning she’ll be close to the front but not leading. Jockey Flavien Prat will look to position her perfectly so she can pounce (make her move) as they turn for home in the stretch.

Hit Parade is the closer — she’ll sit further back in the pack and rely on a strong finishing kick in the final furlong (1/8th of a mile). She needs the front horses to tire in the stretch for her run to be effective.

The key question: Does Bottle of Rouge pressure Dazzling Dame early, or does she wait and stalk? If the pace is slow and Dazzling Dame gets an easy lead, she could wire the field. If Bottle of Rouge applies pressure, both leaders could tire, setting the table perfectly for Hit Parade to come flying late.

Expert Picks for the 2026 Virginia Oaks

1. 🥇 WIN: Dazzling Dame (5-2) — Dominant recent form, clear speed advantage, huge last effort. If she leads uncontested, she’s very hard to beat.
2. 🥈 PLACE: Bottle of Rouge (6-5) — Best overall résumé in the field with a Grade 1 win on her record. Should be in the thick of it at the finish.
3. 🥉 SHOW: Hit Parade (3-1) — Class filly with an understandable excuse for her last run. Worth including in exactas and trifectas.

Suggested Exotic Bets:

• Exacta Box: 1-3 (Dazzling Dame / Bottle of Rouge)
• Trifecta Key: 1 on top → 2, 3, 4 (Hit Parade, Bottle of Rouge, Kadabra)
• Value Play: Kadabra (6-1) — dangerous with Pletcher and Velazquez in a small field

Ready to put your picks to the test? Get up to $1,500 Today at BUSR and bet the Virginia Oaks with confidence.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the Virginia Oaks?

The Virginia Oaks is a Thoroughbred horse race for three-year-old fillies (young female horses) held at Colonial Downs in New Kent, Virginia. It carries a $250,000 purse and offers qualifying points for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs.

What are Kentucky Oaks qualifying points?

Similar to the road to the Kentucky Derby, fillies must accumulate points through prep races to earn a spot in the Kentucky Oaks field. The Virginia Oaks distributes points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers. Winning means an almost automatic spot in the Kentucky Oaks gate.

Who is the favorite in the 2026 Virginia Oaks?

Bottle of Rouge, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat, is the 6-5 morning-line favorite. She is the only Grade 1 winner in the field, having taken the Del Mar Debutante last September.

Where can I bet the Virginia Oaks?

You can bet the 2026 Virginia Oaks at BUSR. New players can Get Up to $1,500 Today at BUSR — one of the most trusted names in online horse racing wagering.

What does “morning-line odds” mean?

Morning-line odds are the estimated odds set by a track’s official oddsmaker before wagering begins. They give bettors a starting point, but actual odds will shift as money is wagered on each horse leading up to post time.

What is a “closer” in horse racing?

A closer is a horse that runs toward the back of the pack in the early stages of a race and then makes a strong run at the finish. Hit Parade is a notable closer in this field. Closers tend to thrive when the early pace is fast and the front-runners tire late.

When is the 2026 Kentucky Oaks?

The Kentucky Oaks (G1) is run on the first Friday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky — the day before the Kentucky Derby.