Sovereignty vs. Journalism: Oaklawn Handicap Picks, Odds & Betting Analysis

The Setup: A Rivalry Worth Watching

Sovereignty is 2-0 against Journalism. Both wins came on the Triple Crown trail last spring. In the Kentucky Derby, the two colts dueled through the stretch on a sloppy Churchill surface before Sovereignty cleared by a length and a half. Journalism bounced back two weeks later with a hard-fought Preakness Stakes victory, though Sovereignty bypassed that one. When they met again in the Belmont Stakes, Journalism had the lead in the lane before Sovereignty, sent five wide by Junior Alvarado, ran him down and won by three lengths.

A third meeting was lined up for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar, but Sovereignty scratched after spiking a fever in the days leading up to the race. Journalism took his shot against older horses and finished fourth behind Forever Young, Sierra Leone, and Fierceness. That effort matters when you’re trying to project how he fits here against a field that includes the reigning Horse of the Year.

Sovereignty went on to win the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and the Travers Stakes (G1) last summer, closing out a championship season for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Journalism won the Haskell Stakes (G1) and ran second in the Pacific Classic (G1) for trainer Michael McCarthy. Both horses come into the Oaklawn Handicap as 4-year-olds making their seasonal debuts. That detail is not a minor footnote.

Oaklawn Handicap Morning Line Odds

The morning line has Sovereignty as the 4-5 chalk. Journalism is 5-2. White Abarrio opens at 7-2. Liberal Arts and Publisher are each 15-1, and Duke of Duval is listed at 20-1.

Sovereignty starts in post 3, with Alvarado up. Journalism breaks from post 5 with Jose Ortiz in the irons. White Abarrio, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., is in the field as well. That’s a lot of live horsemanship in six horses, which is exactly what you want in a race like this.

Pace Scenario and Trip Handicapping

With only six horses going 1 1/8 miles, pace setup becomes critical. Duke of Duval figures to clear early if he breaks well. Liberal Arts and Publisher are unlikely to put up much of a fight for the lead. That sets up a relatively honest pace, not a crawl, but nothing that should burn the front-runner either.

Sovereignty tends to stalk in the first flight and accelerate off the pace. Journalism can be used forward or rate just off the leader. At a mile and an eighth, the pace scenario probably suits both of the top horses, which means the race comes down to current condition, class, and which one is sharper off the layoff.

That last point is the crux of the handicapping problem here. Sovereignty is coming off nearly eight months away from the track. Journalism is returning from a five and a half month break. Neither horse is a first-time-out runner who’s never done it before, but sharpness off a layoff is real, especially when you’re asking a horse to run against Grade 1 caliber competition. The speed figures these two will likely produce will still top this field, but which one comes in with more condition is the question the tote board can’t answer for you.

If you want to dig deeper into the Triple Crown prep picture as both horses point toward Churchill, check out the Kentucky Derby matchups and Kentucky Derby exacta odds already posted at BUSR.

The White Abarrio Factor

Seven years old, nearly white in color, $7.7 million in career earnings, ten wins from 25 starts. White Abarrio is not here to fill out the field. He ran second to stablemate Skippylongstocking in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January, a race you can review in full at the Pegasus World Cup odds page at BUSR. That’s a horse still running to a high level at an age when most graded stakes horses have been retired for two breeding seasons.

Saffie Joseph Jr. put it plainly when asked about the matchup with Sovereignty: “Obviously, we’re going up against the Horse of the Year. And maybe our best won’t be good enough. But I believe he is going to have to bring his best to beat us.”

That’s not bulletin board material. That’s a trainer who knows his horse and knows what he brings to the table. With Irad Ortiz Jr. up, White Abarrio will be ridden with patience and precision. At 7-2 on the morning line, he’s the most interesting price in the race.

The Rest of the Oaklawn Handicap Field

Publisher went winless in his first 12 career starts before rattling off three consecutive victories. None of those wins came against graded-stakes company. Showing up here against Sovereignty, Journalism, and White Abarrio is a stiff class ask, and the morning line reflects it at 15-1.

Liberal Arts is making his first start in nearly a year, now running for new trainer Heather Irion. A year off the track and a barn change are two separate concerns. Combine them, and the 15-1 morning line might actually be short.

Duke of Duval at 20-1 is in over his head. This is not the spot to look for a live longshot.

Betting Angles: How to Approach the Oaklawn Handicap

At 4-5, Sovereignty is hard to back as a “win bet”. The return on investment is minimal, and you’re betting on a horse making his first start in eight months. He may well win. Mott horses are typically well-prepared off long layoffs, and Alvarado knows this horse. But you’re laying nearly even money on a question mark about condition. That’s not value.

Journalism at 5-2 is the better bet for a straight win play. He’s been beaten twice by Sovereignty, yes, but both losses came under circumstances where you could make a case for the effort. He was the morning-line favorite in both the Derby and the Belmont. He’s shorter off the layoff than Sovereignty. And 5-2 is a number that gives you something back if he runs to his ability.

If you’re building an exacta or trifecta, White Abarrio deserves a piece of every combination at the top. A horse with his record, his recency, and that trainer-jockey combination is not a throwout at 7-2 against two horses coming off layoffs. Structure your exotic wagers with Journalism on top, Sovereignty and White Abarrio underneath, and you’ve covered the three most likely outcomes in the race.

For Preakness planning, as this rivalry potentially continues, BUSR has already posted Preakness matchups. Worth bookmarking.

Also on the card Saturday: the $200,000 Bathhouse Row for 3-year-olds and the $200,000 Valley of the Vapors for 3-year-old fillies, both worth your attention as the Arkansas Derby picture develops. If you follow the 3-year-old filly division, check the Kentucky Oaks odds and Kentucky Oaks matchups at BUSR as well. For the Kentucky Derby jockey and trainer angles, BUSR has jockey props and trainer props already live.

Oaklawn Handicap Picks

• Win: Journalism (5-2)
• Place: Sovereignty (4-5)
• Show / Exotic Use: White Abarrio (7-2)

Race Details: $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap (G2), 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas. Post time 7:20 p.m. ET.

Oaklawn Handicap Field Odds: