Latest Updates: Official Kentucky Derby odds, scratches, horses, post positions

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With the 151st Kentucky Derby approaching rapidly, fans across the nation are turning their attention to the official post positions, morning-line odds. On Saturday, May 3, 2025, the gates at Churchill Downs will open for a 1 1/4-mile spectacle that combines athleticism, tradition, and unpredictability.

With 19 contenders locked in and one key scratch already shacked the field, now is the time to evaluate the horses, dissect the Kentucky Derby odds, and start strategizing your bets.

Favorites, Standouts, and Longshots: Breaking Down the Field

Journalism (3-1): The Front-Runner with Momentum

Leading the Kentucky Derby odds is Journalism, the 3-1 morning-line favorite who has dominated the West Coast circuit. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the colt capped his prep season with an authoritative win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), making him a top-tier contender. Drawing post 8 gives him flexibility out of the gate, and with Umberto Rispoli aboard, the team exudes confidence.

Journalism’s running style—stalking with a powerful turn of foot—makes him ideal for the Derby’s demanding pace and distance. He enters Churchill Downs with four consecutive wins, making him the most consistent horse in the field.

Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1): The Next Wave of Threats

Just behind Journalism on the Kentucky Derby odds board are Sovereignty and Sandman. Sovereignty, the Florida Derby runner-up, is known for his explosive late kick and should benefit from his outside draw in post 18. His trainer, Bill Mott, has prepped the colt specifically for a strong off-the-pace run, and he looks poised to improve off his Florida Derby performance.

Sandman, meanwhile, has captured national attention with his Arkansas Derby (G1) win and sleek gray appearance. Trained by Mark Casse and co-owned by social media influencer Griffin Johnson, Sandman starts from post 17—the only post that has never produced a Derby winner in 42 attempts. While the so-called “curse” of post 17 looms large, Casse believes Sandman’s patient running style could break the streak.

 Luxor Café (15-1) : The Underrated Threat

Hailing from Japan, Luxor Cafe brings global interest and a four-race win streak, including a notable triumph over UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona. The Japanese contingent has grown stronger in recent years, and Luxor Café enters Churchill Downs with a versatile style and proven stamina. He’ll break from post 5, a favorable spot for early tactical positioning.

International punters and bettors alike are keeping a close eye on Luxor Café as they bet on Kentucky Derby results with hopes of a breakthrough win for Japan.

Live Longshots: Flying Mohawk and Owen Almighty (30-1)

While Journalism, Sovereignty, and Sandman dominate headlines, horses like Flying Mohawk and Owen Almighty offer intriguing upside. Flying Mohawk is trained locally in Louisville and brings in former MLB star Jayson Werth as a part-owner. After finishing second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), he’s shown improvement and resilience. Drawing post 11, Flying Mohawk may find an ideal stalking trip.

Owen Almighty, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), disappointed in the Blue Grass Stakes but could bounce back. Breaking from post 16, trainer Brian Lynch hopes the colt’s grinding style will keep him in contention, especially if the early pace collapses.

For bettors looking to mix value into their Kentucky Derby betting strategy, these longshots present enticing options for exotic wagers like trifectas and superfectas.

Burnham Square (12-1): The Points Leader

Burnham Square tops the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 130 points after a commanding win in the Blue Grass Stakes. Trained by Ian Wilkes, this colt has won three of six starts and enters the Derby in peak form. Despite his high ranking, Burnham Square remains under the radar, making him a potential value pick at 12-1.

Notably, horses topping the points leaderboard haven’t fared well in recent editions. California Chrome in 2014 was the last to win from that position. Still, Burnham Square’s consistency and deep closing style make him one of the most compelling upset candidates.

Scratches and Changes: Rodriguez Out, Baeza In

One of Bob Baffert’s original entries, Rodriguez, was scratched earlier this week due to a foot bruise. In his place, Baeza joins the field, adjusting the pace projections slightly. Baffert’s other contender, Citizen Bull (20-1), remains in and will break from post 4. Known for early speed, Citizen Bull could play a pivotal role in shaping the race’s tempo.

The scratch of Rodriguez has also impacted the Kentucky Derby betting markets, slightly shortening Journalism’s odds while adding intrigue around Baeza’s last-minute inclusion.

Post Positions: Inside Speed, Outside Closers

Post position draws often play a pivotal role in shaping the Derby narrative. Horses like Luxor Café, Citizen Bull, and Neoequos landed inside posts—ideal for early speed types looking to secure position before the first turn. On the other hand, closers like Sovereignty and Sandman are well-suited to their outside gates, where they can avoid crowding and unleash their finishes down the stretch.

While post 17 remains winless, recent trends suggest no gate is truly cursed. Mystik Dan, the 2024 winner, came from post 3 and defied conventional spacing logic.

Strategic Considerations for Bettors

As Kentucky Derby betting continues to gain momentum, residents have several legal options for participating. Platforms like BUSR allow bettors to place wagers online from mobile devices. With features like live streaming, race replays, and exotic bet calculators, it’s easier than ever to bet on Kentucky Derby races without setting foot outside the state.

Whether you’re backing a favorite like Journalism or taking a shot on a longshot like Owen Almighty, understanding the pace setup, track conditions, and jockey tactics is crucial. For example:

• Horses with early speed benefit if the pace is moderate
• Late closers thrive when early fractions are fast
• Horses drawn inside often face traffic issues; outside horses have to cover more ground

Analyzing these dynamics helps you make smarter bets and find value in Kentucky Derby odds across the board.

Weather Watch and Final Preparations

As of this writing, Derby Day forecasts indicate partly cloudy skies and and a wet track. Remember, a shift in weather could alter the way the race unfolds, especially for horses with surface preferences. Sandman, for instance, may thrive on a wet track, while Journalism’s best performances have come on fast dirt.