NFL Odds and News: Darren Waller to the Dolphins

NEWSNFL
July 2, 2025

NFL Odds and News

Darren Waller Unretires: Dolphins Land Former Pro Bowl TE in Shocking AFC Move

 

The NFL offseason continues to deliver blockbuster headlines, with NFL Betting markets scrambling to update projections. This time, it’s the Miami Dolphins who shook up NFL Odds by pulling retired tight end Darren Waller back into the league. 

The former Giants and Raiders star has ended his one-year retirement to join Miami in a move that not only stuns fans but shifts expectations across the AFC landscape. The timing comes as teams finalize depth charts and training camp battles, with NFL Draft additions settling into their roles. Waller’s return adds a new dynamic that oddsmakers must now factor into the 2025 outlook.

 

Waller Joins Dolphins in Late-Offseason Twist

 

After stepping away from football last June, Waller seemed finished with the sport. He walked away from three years remaining on his contract with the New York Giants, citing personal agency and the desire to reclaim control over his life. 

Yet behind the scenes, interest in his services never truly faded. This week, the Dolphins sent a 2026 sixth-round pick to the Giants in exchange for Waller and a conditional 2027 seventh-round pick. Reports confirm Waller agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $5 million.

Miami moved quickly to fill the void left by the departure of tight end Jonnu Smith, who was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers alongside Jalen Ramsey. Smith had been one of Miami’s top weapons in 2024, finishing with 88 receptions, 884 yards, and eight touchdowns. 

The loss left a major gap in Mike McDaniel’s scheme. With defenses often focused on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the tight end position plays a crucial role in punishing coverage mismatches. Waller offers a new target with game-breaking upside if healthy.

 

Raiders Roots, Injury Woes, and NFL Rebirth

 

Drafted in the sixth round by the Baltimore Ravens in 2015, Waller’s career has been a rollercoaster. Early suspensions for violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy kept him off the field in 2016 and 2017. His breakout came with the Raiders, where he turned heads over a five-year stretch. In 2019 and 2020, Waller emerged as one of the league’s elite tight ends. 

He recorded 90 catches for 1,145 yards in 2019 and followed with 107 receptions for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. That performance earned him a Pro Bowl nod and led to a three-year, $51 million contract extension in 2022, making him the highest-paid tight end in the league at the time.

But Waller’s productivity dipped amid recurring injuries. After being traded to the Giants for a late third-round pick in March 2023, Waller appeared poised for a comeback. The hype didn’t last. A hamstring injury in Week 8 sidelined him for five games. He ended 2023 with 52 receptions, 552 yards, and one score. What began as a promising partnership with Daniel Jones unraveled, and speculation about Waller’s future grew louder. When he formally announced his retirement last summer, the Giants shifted plans, signing Chris Manhertz and drafting Theo Johnson to fortify the position.

Now, with his return official, Waller lands in a far more favorable situation. He joins an offense designed to exploit athletic mismatches, and his arrival comes with no pressure to serve as the top option. Hill, Waddle, and De’Von Achane already demand defensive attention, freeing Waller for easier routes and red zone targets.

 

Giants Exit With a Slight Gain

 

From New York’s perspective, the trade closes a chapter filled with unrealized potential. Waller was expected to elevate an offense that desperately needed consistency. Despite early chemistry with Daniel Jones in camp, injuries once again limited his impact. His retirement last summer created dead cap space without providing much return.

By trading him to Miami, the Giants receive a 2026 sixth-round pick and a conditional seventh-rounder in 2027. Though modest, the compensation is more than what they would have received had Waller stayed retired. 

The tight end room in New York is now entirely in the hands of youth. Alongside Bellinger, the Giants added seventh-rounder Thomas Fidone II in the most recent NFL Draft. Expectations remain tempered, but the depth chart now aligns with their rebuild timeline.

 

What It Means for NFL Futures and AFC Betting Outlook

 

From a betting perspective, Waller’s move is another indicator that Miami remains all-in on competing now. The Dolphins have been active throughout the offseason, making calculated trades and cap-friendly moves to stay flexible. With Ramsey and Smith gone, acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick and Waller in the same week signals a strategic shift toward veteran leadership and versatility.

NFL odds for the Dolphins are likely to tick upward with Waller’s arrival. His presence gives Tua Tagovailoa another intermediate weapon and raises Miami’s ceiling in both red zone efficiency and third-down conversions. Bettors tracking the AFC East will note this as a key addition in what is already one of the most unpredictable divisions heading into the new season.

The NFL odds around Miami’s win totals and playoff chances should see modest adjustments. Oddsmakers will wait to see if Waller’s preseason performance reflects his 2020 form or resembles the injury-riddled campaigns of the last few years. If he flashes early chemistry with Tagovailoa, expect sharp movement.

 

Dolphins Go All-In for 2025

 

Mike McDaniel’s system has always prioritized speed, precision, and route diversity. Adding Waller enhances that playbook. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle stretching the field, Waller’s size and agility become weapons underneath. He can draw mismatches against linebackers and exploit zones vacated by Miami’s vertical threats.

Waller might not return to his Pro Bowl peak, but even a scaled-back version of his former self could reshape Miami’s passing attack. For a franchise eyeing a deep playoff push, the move offers tremendous upside with minimal risk.

Whether this latest gamble pays off will depend on Waller’s durability and how quickly he meshes within the Dolphins’ fast-paced offense. But for now, one thing is clear: the AFC playoff picture has a new wrinkle, and NFL Betting markets must account for it.

The Dolphins didn’t just get a veteran tight end; they reignited the potential of a player who once looked like the most unstoppable force at his position. The 2025 season just got a lot more interesting.

 

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