Peach Bowl CFP Semifinal: Oregon vs. Indiana Odds and Preview

NCAAF
January 7, 2026

Peach Bowl CFB Semifinal

 

The road to the National Championship culminates in a heavyweight rematch under the lights of Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. On Friday, January 9, 2026, the undefeated #1 Indiana Hoosiers take on the #5 Oregon Ducks in the College Football Playoff Semifinal (Peach Bowl).

This isn’t just a battle for a spot in the title game; it is a revenge mission for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. Indiana handed Oregon its only loss of the season back in October, a 30-20 defensive masterclass in Eugene. Now, with the stakes at an all-time high and two potential top-five NFL Draft picks under center, the college football world is turning to Atlanta for the ultimate CFP Betting showdown.

 

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Game Background & Key Players

 

The Path to Atlanta

Indiana (14-0) has completed one of the most improbable runs in sports history. Under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers have transformed from a Big Ten afterthought into a national juggernaut. They enter this matchup coming off a ruthless 38-3 destruction of Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal, proving that their #1 ranking is no fluke.

Oregon (13-1) has been nearly perfect outside of their Week 7 stumble against the Hoosiers. The Ducks have outscored opponents by an average of 23 points per game and are fresh off a dominant 23-0 shutout of Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. For Oregon, this game is about proving that the first matchup was an anomaly and that their “win-the-day” culture is built for the trophy presentation.

 

Key Player Showdowns: The QB Duel

 

  • Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana): The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner. Mendoza has been a revelation, throwing for 3,172 yards and 36 touchdowns with only six interceptions. His ability to stay calm under pressure and dissect elite defenses is why the Hoosiers are the favorites.
  • Dante Moore (QB, Oregon): After sitting behind Dillon Gabriel last season, Moore has exploded for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns. However, his two interceptions against Indiana in the regular season were the difference-maker. He is looking for redemption on the biggest stage of his life.
  • Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Indiana): Mendoza’s favorite target has hauled in 12 touchdowns this season. His speed and route-running will test Oregon’s secondary early and often.
  • Brandon Finney Jr. (DB, Oregon): The true freshman sensation was the Defensive MVP of the Orange Bowl with two interceptions and a fumble recovery. He’ll be tasked with slowing down the Hoosiers’ explosive passing attack.

 

Odds Breakdown & Smart Betting Angles

 

The oddsmakers at BUSR see this as a tightly contested battle, with Indiana receiving the respect that comes with an undefeated record. Here are the current CFP Odds for the Peach Bowl:

 

 

TeamSpreadMoneyline (ML)Total (Over/Under)
Oregon Ducks+3.5 (-110)+150O 47.5 (-110)
Indiana Hoosiers-3.5 (-110)-185U 47.5 (-110)

 

 

Smart Betting Angles

 

The Case for Indiana (-3.5):

Indiana is the most balanced team in the country, ranking 3rd in scoring offense (41.6 PPG) and 2nd in scoring defense (10.3 PPG). They force turnovers at a prolific rate (+18 margin on the season). If they can bait Dante Moore into the same mistakes he made in Eugene, the Hoosiers should cover this small spread.

The Case for Oregon (+3.5):

Revenge is a powerful motivator. Oregon leads the nation in “three-and-out” defensive percentage, and their defense has reached a new gear in the postseason, coming off a shutout. Getting more than a field goal with a team as talented as Oregon is rare. If the Ducks can establish the run with Noah Whittington, they can control the clock and keep Mendoza off the field.

Over/Under 47.5:

Despite the offensive firepower, both defenses are elite. Indiana has stayed “Under” in four of their last five games due to their ability to choke out opponents in the second half. However, with the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a score of 27-24 (which hits the Over) is very plausible.

 

Prop Bet Suggestions

 

  • Fernando Mendoza Over 2.5 Passing TDs: Mendoza has hit this mark in three of his last four games.
  • Jordon Davison (Oregon) Anytime TD: The Ducks’ powerhouse back has 15 touchdowns this year and is their go-to option in the red zone.

 

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Don’t Miss Your Chance to Bet on the CFP with BUSR

 

The #1 vs. #5 showdown in Atlanta is the game we’ve been waiting for all season. It’s the Heisman winner against the rising star, the undefeated upstart against the established powerhouse. This rematch has all the ingredients for an all-time classic.

The CFP Betting action is heating up, and the lines are moving fast. Don’t get left on the sidelines while history is made. Head over to BUSR today, grab your welcome bonus, and put your football IQ to the test.

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