Belmont Stakes Contender Profile: Baeza

HORSE RACING
May 22, 2025

Baeza’s Belmont Bombshell

The Derby Underdog Ready to Shock the World

 

Baeza’s rise in the 2025 Triple Crown season has been one of the most compelling stories in horse racing this year. Originally not expected to run in the Kentucky Derby, he was added to the field as an also-eligible replacement after a late scratch. 

Defying the odds, Baeza surged from the back of the pack to finish a strong third behind Sovereignty and Journalism. His gritty Derby performance earned him a ticket to the final leg of the Triple Crown at Saratoga: the Belmont Stakes.

As fans and bettors gear up to bet on Belmont, Baeza has emerged as one of the most intriguing entries in the race. With Sovereignty skipping the Preakness Stakes and Journalism securing the victory in that race, all eyes are now on Saratoga for the rubber match. Baeza’s Belmont Stakes odds have remained consistent among the top-tier contenders, reflecting his potential for a breakthrough performance in this unique Triple Crown finale.

Belmont Stakes betting always presents challenges due to the long distance and different pace dynamics. Strategy and adaptability are critical this year at 1¼ miles at Saratoga instead of the traditional 1½ at Belmont Park. 

Baeza’s connections believe the colt is peaking at just the right time. His resilience and racing intelligence were on full display at Churchill Downs, and he’ll need both again if he’s to close the Triple Crown series with a win.

 

Pedigree and Performance: Baeza’s Competitive Edge

 

Baeza comes from elite bloodlines that suggest he is bred to excel in distance races. He is a son of McKinzie, a multiple Grade 1 winner known for his consistency and speed, and his dam, Puca, is already a proven producer. Puca is the dam of Mage, winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby, and Dornoch, who captured the 2024 Belmont Stakes. With such a powerful maternal line, Baeza’s pedigree blends speed with proven stamina and class.

In his early starts, Baeza displayed a learning curve but quickly showed promise. After a ninth-place finish in his debut on turf, he switched to dirt and immediately improved. His second career race saw him finish a strong runner-up, and he followed that with an emphatic maiden victory at Santa Anita in March.

Baeza’s next stop was the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he ran second to Journalism, the eventual Preakness Stakes winner. That effort proved he could handle top competition. While he may not have had the flashiest win record heading into Churchill Downs, his consistent development and tactical ability put him in contention among more experienced runners.

Baeza’s run in the Kentucky Derby confirmed what his connections already believed: he has the grit and determination to compete at the highest level. He overcame a tough trip to finish third in the Derby, and with a cleaner run in the Belmont, he could take another step forward. 

His racing experience, elite bloodlines, and upward form make him one of the most intriguing horses in this year’s Belmont Stakes field.

 

Belmont Stakes Odds Outlook: Why Baeza Can Win

 

The Belmont Stakes is often where the best all-around horse shines, one with speed, stamina, and the mental toughness to handle the pressure of a significant race. Baeza checks many of those boxes. His performances in the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby show he belongs with the best of his generation.

Heading into Belmont Stakes week, Baeza is listed at 7-2 on the odds board. That puts him among the favorites, just behind Journalism and slightly ahead of other top names like Sandman and Rodriguez. Bettors who watched Baeza’s Derby performance understand why he’s drawing attention. He made a sustained run from well off the pace to finish in the money in a 20-horse field, a performance that requires both class and tactical ability.

Trainer John Shirreffs has been methodical in preparing Baeza for each start. Known for his patient approach, Shirreffs has guided champions like Giacomo and Zenyatta to peak at the right time. In Baeza, he sees a colt who’s still improving and should be well-suited to the demands of the Belmont.

The shift to Saratoga Race Course adds more uncertainty this year. The Belmont Stakes, traditionally run at 1½ miles at Belmont Park, has been shortened to 1¼ miles due to construction. This change could work in Baeza’s favor. His strong finishing kick and experience at this distance give him a real shot at the winner’s circle.

Baeza offers a compelling blend of value and upside for those exploring Belmont Stakes betting opportunities. His odds suggest he’s in the mix, and his trajectory suggests he may be peaking at precisely the right time.

 

Baeza’s Quest for Classic Glory

 

A win at the Belmont Stakes would be a career-defining moment for Baeza—and it would add to an already historic run for his dam, Puca. If Baeza crosses the finish line first on June 8, he’ll become Puca’s third Classic-winning foal in as many years, joining Mage and Dornoch. 

It would also mark a return to the winner’s circle in a Triple Crown race for trainer John Shirreffs and further cement Flavien Prat’s reputation as one of the sharpest jockeys in North America.

What sets Baeza apart is his steady improvement. Unlike some horses that flash brilliance early and fade, Baeza has built momentum with each race. His performance on the track reflects a horse learning, adapting, and growing stronger with experience. In the Belmont Stakes, those qualities can make all the difference.

Saratoga’s sweeping turns and long stretch will allow closers like Baeza to impact late, especially if the pace is honest. The 1¼-mile distance is a fair test, and Baeza’s pedigree and running style suggest he’ll thrive. Shirreffs and Prat are focused on giving him the perfect setup to unleash his best run.

As the final leg of the Triple Crown draws near, bettors looking to bet on Belmont should keep Baeza high on their watchlists. His odds reflect respect from the public, but he may still offer value compared to the top two choices. 

Whether building a win ticket or constructing trifectas and superfectas, Baeza is the kind of horse that can make a difference.

Stay tuned for training reports, weather updates, and final entries as race day approaches. And when you’re ready to pick, visit our racebook for the latest Belmont Stakes odds and expert insight to guide your wagers.

 

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