NFL Week 13 Betting Guide: Best Bets & Odds

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Houston, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Los Angeles, Carolina, New Orleans, Miami, Atlanta, New York, San Francisco, and more, all land in a busy Week 13 slate that shapes the NFL Odds board before and after Sunday Night Football. 

Bettors see tight spreads, key injury returns, and several strong opinions baked into the market. NFL Betting players looking for value need to know where the numbers differ from calculated spreads and how public action lines up with sharper views.

Below is a game-by-game breakdown using the information you provided and the BUSR lines, with each matchup framed for bettors who want concise summaries that still track every key data point.

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis continues to run one of the league’s most productive offenses, while Houston leans on an elite defense. The clash between Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor on one side and a top-tier Texans stop unit on the other sets the tone for this matchup.

Taylor has played at an Offensive Player of the Year level most of the season. Kansas City finally slowed him down, which capped the Colts at 20 points and left them unable to score in the fourth quarter and overtime. Houston ranks fifth against the run, so Taylor faces another stiff test. If the ground game stalls again, Jones must carry the offense, something he failed to do against the Chiefs.

The passing matchup creates more problems for Indianapolis. Houston grades even stronger against the pass than the run. This front sacked Josh Allen eight times and pairs that pressure with elite defensive backs. Jones will need clean pockets and receivers separating downfield, two things that will be difficult against this defense.

On the other side, the Colts’ defense sits 13th overall and matches up well with a Houston offense that struggles to protect C.J. Stroud. Even without DeForest Buckner, Indianapolis still generates pressure, as seen against Patrick Mahomes. Stroud plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and faces strong outside corners, with Charvarius Ward healthy across from Sauce Gardner. Houston’s receivers must win tough matchups in tight windows.

Indianapolis is weaker against the run than the pass, especially after Buckner’s departure, yet Houston’s rushing attack has not shown the ability to punish that weakness. Woody Marks was only solid in a favorable matchup against Buffalo’s poor rush defense, and the Texans have lacked a consistent ground threat.

Public enthusiasm has flipped toward Houston after a few wins, while the Colts come off a loss to Kansas City that dampened market confidence. Early in the week, around three-quarters of tickets landed on Houston +4.5, tilting the Vegas edge toward Indianapolis. The calculated spread sits at Colts -4.5, in line with the Westgate advance number, while a computer model shows Colts -3.5. That keeps the official spread within a narrow band of projections.

Historically, Indianapolis has dominated the series, winning 32 of 45 meetings excluding a 2022 tie. The game takes place in a dome, with no weather angle. With the matchup on defense favoring the Colts against Houston’s offense and more uncertainty around Stroud in his first game back from injury, the lean stays with the home favorite. 

Pick: Colts -4.5 and the under 44.5.

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL Odds for this game swung sharply once Baker Mayfield’s shoulder injury shifted Tampa Bay to Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Mayfield’s AC joint sprain keeps him out here, placing Bridgewater under center for a Buccaneers team that still sits as a small home favorite.

Bridgewater’s recent tape creates mixed confidence. Against the Rams’ top-ranked defense, he spent much of the second half throwing the ball away and struggling to move the offense. The opponent mattered in that result, since Los Angeles sits at the top of the defensive rankings. Arizona’s defense is no pushover either, ranking 15th overall and holding up well outside of games against elite offenses.

The Cardinals have dealt with injuries in the secondary, which dragged down their recent metrics, yet top corner Will Johnson nearly returned last week and could be ready here. His presence would be important against Emeka Egbuka, as Johnson has been Arizona’s best corner all season. Tampa Bay may need production on the ground to protect Bridgewater, and the Cardinals rank 19th versus the run. That opens some room for the Buccaneers backfield, whether the workload tilts toward Sean Tucker or a limited Bucky Irving.

On offense, Arizona continues to get strong work from Jacoby Brissett in place of Kyler Murray. Brissett broke a single-game completion record two weeks ago and then battled Jacksonville into overtime, falling about 20 yards short in a shootout. He has done this without Marvin Harrison Jr., as Michael Wilson has stepped forward and Trey McBride has been dominant at tight end.

Tampa Bay’s defense may not have an answer for Wilson if Jamel Dean sits again, and McBride’s current form stresses linebackers and safeties. The Buccaneers usually rely on Vita Vea and the front to control the run, yet his health has been an issue and the rush defense has slipped. Arizona lacks a strong ground game without James Conner or Trey Benson, so the Cardinals’ path still runs through Brissett’s arm.

From a numbers standpoint, the advance line listed Buccaneers -5.5 with Mayfield healthy, while a calculated spread put this matchup at Cardinals -1.5 and a computer model at Cardinals -2.5. The shift to Bridgewater brought the market down to Tampa Bay -3 and now -2.5, which still shows an edge toward Arizona on the spread line. Arizona’s profile includes six close losses that could have flipped the record and narrowed the gap between these teams.

Public action leans to Tampa Bay, with about 63 percent of money on the Buccaneers, although overall betting volume remains balanced enough to remove a clear Vegas edge. Trends favor Arizona as well, with Tampa Bay 46-78 ATS at home over its last 124 tries.

Motivation leans slightly to the Buccaneers, who could rally around Bridgewater. Even so, the price no longer offers the value of the early Cardinals +5.5 number. 

Pick: Arizona +2.5 and the under 43.5 in play.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

The market rates Jacksonville as a clear road favorite in this AFC South meeting, yet there is skepticism about how good the Jaguars really are in NFL Betting circles. At 7-4, they carry a strong record, though several wins came in tight games against poor opponents, which influences how some bettors view these NFL Odds.

Trevor Lawrence remains inconsistent. Against Arizona, he delivered impressive throws and then offset them with costly turnovers. That pattern has defined his season. Arizona entered the week ranked 12th in defense, making that matchup tougher than many expected. Tennessee’s defense grades far worse overall despite an uptick with Jeffery Simmons back in the lineup. The Titans still struggle against both run and pass, giving Jacksonville freedom in their play calling.

If Lawrence plays clean football, he can post a big number, especially if Brian Thomas Jr. returns and stretches the field. Travis Etienne also has a prime opportunity after Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined for 106 yards on 17 carries against the Titans. Tennessee has not consistently tackled well or held edges in the run game.

Tennessee’s offense showed life in the previous week behind Cam Ward, who had his best pro outing with much of the production arriving in garbage time. Earlier in the season, even garbage time drives gave him trouble. The difference in his latest performance came from scrambling. Ward finally unlocked his mobility, running instead of sitting in the pocket and absorbing sacks or turnovers. If he keeps that dimension in his game, it mitigates his tendency to hold the ball and plays into Jacksonville’s biggest defensive strength on the edge.

The Jaguars rank 14th against the run, which puts more responsibility on Ward to move the ball with his legs and arm. The Titans cannot lean heavily on the ground game against that front and must accept a game plan that runs more through their young quarterback.

The official spread sits at Jaguars -6.5, while a calculated number lands at -4.5. The Westgate advance line was -7, and a computer model pegs this matchup at Jaguars -5.5. Those figures tilt the spread edge toward Tennessee, especially with Jacksonville potentially looking ahead to a crucial meeting with the Colts next week that could shape the AFC South race.

Public money supports Jacksonville at about 65 percent, giving a Vegas edge to the Titans as home dogs. Jacksonville has also been shaky in big favorite roles, going 11-18 ATS when laying 6.5 or more since 2003. Tennessee has covered three straight on the back of Ward’s improvements and Simmons’ return, though they remain one of the league’s weakest teams overall.

Pick:  Titans +6.5 and the under 41.5

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers

This matchup puts one of the league’s best teams on both sides of the ball against a .500 Carolina squad that had its defensive core gutted by injuries on Monday night. That context explains why the Rams sit at -10.5 on the NFL Odds board and why many see them as one of the strongest NFL Betting options of Week 13.

On offense, Sean McVay now schemes against a Panthers defense missing its top two linebackers and likely Jaycee Horn again at corner after he exited early in the 49ers game. McVay targets weaknesses efficiently, much like Kyle Shanahan, and those absences open the middle of the field for Puka Nacua. Carolina’s secondary, already compromised, now must also handle Davante Adams, who has been a steady touchdown producer and draws softer coverage if Horn is sidelined.

Carolina’s run defense has struggled in recent results, and game script may skew heavily toward the Rams in the second half. That sets up Kyren Williams to handle volume while Los Angeles protects a lead and bleeds the clock. The Panthers do not match up well against that approach.

On offense, Bryce Young is coming off a 450-yard outing against a jetlagged Falcons team and then a sharp crash back to Earth against San Francisco. The Falcons win owed a lot to Atlanta’s fatigue after an 11-hour flight from Germany, something national narratives often ignored. Young followed that performance with nine points and two picks against a 49ers defense missing pass rush and back-seven talent. Earlier, he managed only seven points against the Saints.

If Young could not reach double figures against a weakened San Francisco defense that generated little pressure, the forecast against the Rams’ top-ranked unit is grim. Los Angeles produces heavy pressure and owns the No. 2 run defense, so Rico Dowdle is unlikely to provide much balance. That leaves Young facing constant pressure and long-yardage downs.

The spot strongly favors Los Angeles. Carolina plays on a short week after a Monday night loss and travels cross-country, a setup where non-winning teams have gone 86-111 ATS since 2010. The Rams, under McVay, have excelled in 1 p.m. East Coast games, logging an 11-6 ATS record even before adjusting for a late loss to the Eagles that could easily have shifted that mark higher. Los Angeles also avoids a look-ahead trap, with Arizona on deck.

The market opened Rams -9.5 with a total of 45.5. Calculated spread sits at Rams -10.5 with a computer model at -11.5, aligning with the current number. Public money veers toward the Panthers, giving the Rams a Vegas edge despite the big spread. 

Pick: Rams -10.5 and the under 45.5. 

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins

This game offers one of the largest gaps between market line and projected spread anywhere on the Week 13 NFL Odds board. Miami is laying 5.5 points at home, yet a calculated number places this at Dolphins -1.5, with a computer model at -3.5 and the advance line at -4.5. Handicappers who group these rosters closely see a major opportunity for NFL Betting on the road underdog.

Miami’s offense leans heavily on De’Von Achane, whose speed torched Washington’s slow linebackers in Spain. The matchup there was nearly perfect. Against the Saints, Achane faces a much different test. New Orleans ranks ninth against the run and carries athletic linebackers who can track him both on the ground and in the passing game. The Saints just limited Bijan Robinson, which hints at their ability to keep Achane from hitting his ceiling.

The Saints’ weakness lies in pass defense. They have allowed even average quarterbacks, like Kirk Cousins a week ago, to post big days. Tua Tagovailoa walks into a favorable matchup on paper against this secondary, yet his season has been up and down. He has delivered several poor performances and ranks 23rd in EPA among starting quarterbacks, placing him in the bottom third of the league.

New Orleans counterattacks with Tyler Shough. His outing against Atlanta was rough against a Falcons defense ranked 14th versus the pass, and that number includes Bryce Young’s 450-yard game that came under obvious travel disadvantage for Atlanta. Against Carolina the prior week, Shough looked much better, which made sense against a Panthers defense ranked 27th versus the pass.

Miami’s defense tracks more closely to Carolina’s profile. The Dolphins rank 26th against the pass and lack a consistent pass rush, unlike Atlanta. That gives Shough time and room to work, attacking a secondary stripped of talent. Miami, like New Orleans, sits in the top 10 against the run, which limits Alvin Kamara’s impact as a runner if he plays.

On both sides, the defenses share similar strengths and weaknesses. Neither stops the pass well, both stop the run, both offenses feature one primary receiver in Jaylen Waddle and Chris Olave, and both rely on quarterbacks with clear limitations. Miami holds a dynamic edge with Achane, while New Orleans brings the better offensive line.

The spot strongly favors the Saints. Miami enters off a win on an international stage followed by a bye, a profile that often produces flat performances as players hear praise and ease off preparation. New Orleans lived this pattern after a win over Carolina heading into their own bye and now arrives focused on a fresh opponent. Public money sits heavy on Miami, around 74 percent, giving the Saints a Vegas edge.

Pick: New Orleans +5.5, under 41.5.

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets

Atlanta’s market value cratered after a blowout loss to the Panthers, though that game came with the Falcons jetlagged from an 11-hour trip from Germany. A bounce-back road win at New Orleans reset expectations and shows why this week’s NFL Odds list Atlanta -2.5 against a struggling Jets team.

On offense, Kirk Cousins turned in a much better performance than many expected in the win over the Saints. He did it without his top receiver, as an underdog, and still led Atlanta to a road victory. The Jets defense, after trading away all of its defensive backs, now fields a vulnerable secondary. They struggle against tight ends in particular, which creates a favorable setup for Kyle Pitts. Darnell Mooney’s resurgence last week also matters against a thin corner group.

The ground game should rebound as well. Bijan Robinson found little room against New Orleans, which is known for strong run defense. The Jets rank 24th against the run, and Atlanta can create wide lanes for Robinson behind a line that usually blocks well in the run game. Short-yardage situations will help Cousins control the tempo and limit mistakes.

On offense, New York leans on Tyrod Taylor, who briefly threatened Baltimore with a sharp first half that included chunk plays to John Metchie. In the second half, the offense stalled. Against Atlanta, Taylor again faces a defense that excels against the pass. The Falcons’ aerial defense grades well and has been consistent outside of the Germany letdown.

Those limitations from Taylor allow Atlanta to crowd the box and focus on Breece Hall. The Falcons typically struggle in run defense, yet with Taylor unable to threaten downfield consistently, Atlanta can allocate extra defenders to control Hall’s lanes and keep him contained.

Numerically, the spread sits at Falcons -2.5, with a calculated line at -3.5, an advance line at -1.5, and a computer model at -4.5. Those numbers push the spread edge toward Atlanta. Public money flows to the Falcons at about 69 percent, giving the Jets a modest Vegas edge. Trends tilt toward New York as well, as Raheem Morris is 3-8 ATS in his second straight road game.

Pick: Falcons -2.5 and the under 39.5

San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns

This matchup features features a San Francisco team with offensive questions against a Cleveland defense that holds advantages in several areas. The 49ers sit -5 on the NFL Odds board, while a calculated spread lands at -4, an advance line at -6.5, and a computer model at -2.5. That gives the Browns the spread edge at home with the better defense and more rest.

Brock Purdy’s decision making created problems in the win over Carolina. He threw three interceptions in the first half, including one that wiped out at least three points and another that handed three to the Panthers. San Francisco still won by margin because Carolina could not take advantage, yet this level of turnover risk against Cleveland is much more dangerous.

Cleveland’s defense plays strong over the middle of the field and ranks eighth against the run. That lines up directly with San Francisco’s strengths in Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. McCaffrey faces tight run lanes against this front, and Kittle works into crowded zones where linebackers and safeties converge quickly. One advantage for the 49ers is that they can handle Myles Garrett better than most teams thanks to Trent Williams, which keeps Purdy from being completely overwhelmed off the edge.

Cleveland turns to Shedeur Sanders at quarterback. His debut in relief of Dillon Gabriel was rocky, followed by a better outing against the Raiders, though one highlight play — the 66-yard touchdown to Dylan Sampson — owed more to Sampson’s run after the catch than a deep strike. Sanders made some sharp throws and some clear mistakes, including an interception and missed reads. He at least avoided drifting in the pocket, a positive sign for his pocket mechanics.

San Francisco’s pass rush has been underwhelming, which gives Sanders more time to find targets. The 49ers struggle to generate pressure and can be attacked over the middle. Sanders will want to feed Quinshon Judkins, yet the 49ers’ 10th-ranked run defense limits that path. Cleveland will likely rely on Sanders to carry the offense with accurate throws and smart decisions.

The spot adds value to Cleveland. San Francisco travels across the country on a short week after a Monday night game, while the Browns enjoy extra rest. Kyle Shanahan’s past success includes strong game plans against weaker defenses, like Carolina’s current unit, yet Cleveland does not offer the same weaknesses. In four games against top-10 defenses this year, the 49ers have not won by more than four points.

Action remains balanced, with about 51 percent of money on Cleveland and no clear Vegas edge. Trends favor San Francisco after Monday night wins, as Shanahan is 5-0 ATS in that role, while Kevin Stefanski is 15-25 ATS after a win. Even with those marks, the combination of defensive strength, rest, and line value keeps this game close on paper.

Pick: Cleveland +5 and the under 38. 

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks

The NFL Odds for this game reflect exactly how far apart these two teams are right now. Seattle is laying 11.5 points with a total of 41, and the handicap starts with Minnesota’s quarterback situation and a motivated Seahawks locker room.

J.J. McCarthy is out this week with what the team is calling a concussion. The word out of Minnesota is that this “concussion” lines up with what looks like a benching after he graded as the worst quarterback in the league. Even Shedeur Sanders has shown better traits. That moves undrafted rookie Max Brosmer into the starting role.

Brosmer arrives from New Hampshire with polished footwork, clean mechanics, and a reputation as a smart player. His ceiling is limited because he lacks arm strength and athletic traits. He profiles more like a future backup than a high-upside starter. With no real ability to threaten downfield, he walks into a nightmare matchup against a Seahawks defense built to attack that exact profile.

Seattle owns a monstrous defense that can apply steady pressure on the quarterback and support that rush with strong work against the run. With Brosmer unable to stretch the field, Seattle can crowd the box, fire off the ball, and play closer to the line. That removes balance from the Vikings’ offense and exposes a rookie to consistent heat all afternoon.

On the other side of the ball, Sam Darnold gets a chance he has likely circled all season. Kevin O’Connell picked McCarthy over Darnold in the offseason. That decision stands as a clear slight, and Darnold now faces his former team with extra fuel. He knows Brian Flores’ scheme from daily practice last year. That familiarity should help him identify pressures and coverage rotations.

Darnold thrives when he does not have to deal with organic pressure. The key detail is how that pressure arrives. He has been excellent against the blitz this season, completing 65 percent of his passes and averaging 10.3 yards per attempt. Minnesota blitzes more than any team in the league. Every extra rusher plays into Darnold’s hands and opens windows for his receivers.

Seattle should also find room on the ground. Kenneth Walker has seen a growing workload and now faces a Vikings front ranked 16th against the run. That ranking leaves enough space for Walker to keep the offense in manageable down-and-distance and prevent Flores from calling every exotic look in the book.

From a motivation and NFL Betting angle, this spot lines up cleanly for Seattle. Darnold’s teammates know exactly how Minnesota treated him. That creates a true revenge environment where the locker room rallies around its quarterback. There is no obvious look-ahead on the schedule, since the Seahawks host the Falcons next week. Focus sits squarely on this game.

The spread, total, and projections all line up. The market sits at Seahawks -11.5. The calculated spread also lands on Seahawks -11.5. The advance line at Westgate opened Seahawks -7.5 before the McCarthy situation fully played out, and a computer model pegs Seattle -12.5. Public money has flowed to Minnesota, about 65 percent of the handle, which gives a Vegas edge to the Seahawks at home. Historical trends offer a small counter, as Seattle is 10-17 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more since 2017, although 62-49 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Pick: Seattle -11.5 with the under 41 also in the mix. 

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

This matchup offers a classic NFL Betting angle: a better team off a loss, a discount on the spread, and a vulnerable opponent with questions at quarterback. Buffalo is laying 3.5 points with a total of 46.5, while projections suggest more room for the favorite.

Josh Allen comes into this game after a punishing week where he and Geno Smith combined to take 18 sacks. Allen survived that beating, and now faces another dangerous edge rush in T.J. Watt and the Steelers front. Protection will be a key early storyline.

The difference this week is on the ground. James Cook had no success running against Houston’s defense, which ranks fifth against the run. Pittsburgh is on the opposite end of the spectrum at 27th. The Bills can use Cook to punish soft run lanes, create shorter passing downs, and slow down Watt’s rush angles. Efficient early-down runs also reduce the number of long-dropback situations where Allen becomes a sack target.

When Buffalo is in rhythm, Allen can attack all levels of the field. The handicap here leans on situation as much as matchup. Allen is 15-9 ATS off a loss since his second season, and Sean McDermott owns a 10-5 ATS record in his second straight road game. That profile points to a Bills team that responds well when challenged.

Pittsburgh leans on the run even more than Buffalo. The Bills rank 30th against the run this year, which is one of the few areas where they sit near the bottom of the league. Sean Tucker’s huge game for Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago highlighted those issues. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Walker have the skills to do similar damage if the blocking holds up.

Two factors tilt that picture. First, Matt Milano has been playing through injury, and any improvement in his health after a mini-bye can lift this unit significantly. Second, Buffalo does not have to respect the Pittsburgh passing game the way it respected Tampa Bay’s attack. That allows more bodies near the line, more early down run fits, and fewer two-high coverages.

Quarterback remains a major question for the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers is working through a non-throwing hand injury and has not played effective football, relying on short throws and conservative decisions. Mason Rudolph threw two interceptions last week against a bad Chicago defense. Either option walks into a much tougher assignment against Buffalo’s aerial defense. That puts even more pressure on the run game and sets up obvious passing downs where the Bills can hunt turnovers.

From an NFL Odds standpoint, the spread presents clear value. The market sits at Bills -3.5. A calculated spread tags Buffalo -6. The Westgate advance line was Bills -4.5, and a computer model falls closer to Bills -2.5. Public money leans toward Pittsburgh, with about 68 percent of the handle on the Steelers, giving Buffalo a Vegas edge.

Trends offer support in both directions. Mike Tomlin is 65-39 ATS as an underdog. Allen’s and McDermott’s records off losses and in back-to-back road games show strong responses in these situations. The key is that Buffalo has more room to improve defensively and a much higher offensive ceiling.

Pick:  Bills -3.5, under 46.5. 

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

The NFL Odds in this AFC West game say plenty about the state of both offenses. The Chargers are favored by 9.5 points with a total of 41, an unusual combination that reflects big trust issues in the Raiders attack and limited confidence in Los Angeles as a scoring machine.

Las Vegas is coming off a brutal performance against the Browns. The outing was bad enough to cost Chip Kelly his job. Even in that mess, the Raiders still managed to outscore the Chargers’ output from the previous week, when Los Angeles lost 35-6 to Jacksonville. That tiny note is the only positive for the Raiders.

The real problem is up front. The Raiders’ offensive line was overwhelmed by Cleveland, which sacked Geno Smith 10 times behind the power of Myles Garrett. The Chargers bring a similar type of threat with Khalil Mack and a front that can create heavy pressure. Smith walks into this one expecting a similar environment, with constant hits and very little time in the pocket.

The Chargers are stronger against the pass than the run. That matchup could favor Ashton Jeanty if he gets a clean bill of health and better blocking. He left the Browns game with an injury but could be ready for this matchup. The issue is that he still runs behind a line that struggles in both protection and run blocking, so his path to a breakout day is narrow.

The Chargers’ offense looks only a bit better right now. Their loss to the Jaguars was a full-scale failure built around a line that cannot block on the edges. Jacksonville’s rushers wrecked the passing game, and Maxx Crosby can have a similar impact here. With the Chargers tackles overmatched, the Raiders’ best defensive player is in line for a big night.

The run game has little margin for error. Omarion Hampton might return, and the Raiders have improved against the run as the season has progressed. They still do not dominate that phase, though they play well enough to prevent a ground-heavy game from covering a big number on its own.

From a pure NFL Betting perspective, both teams are fading candidates, which makes this matchup tricky. Even so, the Raiders bring more value into this line. First, a 9.5-point spread is steep for a Chargers squad that struggles to score, to protect their quarterback, and to keep games clean. Second, home field means less in this matchup. Raiders fans travel well to Los Angeles, often flipping the crowd. The Chargers can end up using silent counts in their own stadium, which magnifies their blocking issues.

Third, the Raiders get the classic post-firing bump after Kelly’s dismissal. Players often respond with sharper focus in the first week or two after a coach is removed. It is a wake-up signal that says they might be next in line for blame. Fourth, the Chargers have the Eagles and Chiefs on deck. With two heavyweight opponents up next, they may not treat the Raiders as a full-threat opponent.

At the same time, it is hard to trust Las Vegas for a large stake. Los Angeles is the better team, and Jim Harbaugh has a full bye week to work on solutions up front. The market number at Chargers -9.5 compares to a calculated spread of Chargers -8, with both the Westgate advance and computer model also landing on Chargers -8. Public money leans to the Chargers at about 61 percent, so Vegas gives a slight edge to the Raiders.

Pick: Raiders +9.5 earns a two-unit tag, with the under 41. 

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders 

Sunday Night Football brings a Broncos team riding high into a matchup with a Commanders roster that has lost its starting quarterback and leans on a backup in a tough spot. The NFL Odds list Denver -5.5 with a total of 43.5, and the handicap revolves around defensive dominance and situational edges.

On offense, Denver steps into a matchup that mirrors what Miami used a couple of weeks ago. Washington’s linebackers are the slowest group in the league. De’Von Achane’s speed put them in a blender in Spain. The Broncos do not have Achane, yet they do have R.J. Harvey, who brings explosiveness and breakaway ability. He can bounce outside and turn simple zone runs into long gains if Sean Payton gives him a full workload rather than sharing too many touches with Jaleel McLaughlin, as he did before the bye.

Harvey’s big plays can flip the script for Bo Nix. In the first three quarters, Nix has a habit of drifting, throwing off his back foot, and missing throws he can hit late in games. Washington has no real pass rush and poor coverage, so this is exactly the type of matchup where he should produce. Even so, his recent struggles against a similar Raiders defense show that he still needs help from the ground game to stay on schedule.

The stronger edge sits with Denver’s defense. With Jayden Daniels out, Marcus Mariota remains the starter for Washington. Mariota’s mobility and experience give him enough tools to beat bad teams, and he nearly stole the game in Spain against the Dolphins. The problem comes when he faces high-end defenses. He could not hang with the Lions before that trip and will find life even tougher against the Broncos.

Denver generates more pressure than any team in the league. Mariota will be under siege from the first series, and Patrick Surtain’s expected return locks down one side of the field. That funnels throws into tighter windows and late progressions, which pairs badly with heavy pressure.

The Commanders also lack a trustworthy ground game. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has not met expectations and is no longer handling most of the carries. Denver ranks eighth against the run, closing off that path and leaving Mariota to carry more of the load than is ideal.

From an NFL Betting and NFL Odds standpoint, this shapes up as a Denver side with stronger matchup edges and a slight concern on motivation. The Broncos come off a big win over the Chiefs and have had two weeks of praise. That can soften edges and focus in the locker room. Washington holds the motivational edge in that sense.

The spread still favors Denver. The market sits at Broncos -5.5. A calculated line puts this at Broncos -8.5. The Westgate advance number was -6.5, and a computer model lands on Broncos -8. Over 80 percent of the money comes in on Denver, giving Washington the Vegas edge as a home dog in prime time. Sean Payton’s history off a bye is strong, with a 10-6 ATS record.

Pick: Broncos -5.5 

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