NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs Buccaneers
Thursday’s NFC South matchup features two teams heading in different directions: Tampa Bay fighting to stay in the NFL playoff race, and Atlanta evaluating its roster for the long term. Below is a full ATS-focused breakdown using the latest available BUSR odds for this matchup.
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Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Latest NFL Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline (ML) | Total (Over/Under) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +4 (-110) | +172 | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4 (-110) | -214 | U 44.5 (-110) |
Atlanta Falcons Overview
The Atlanta Falcons (4-9) are entering their Thursday night rematch against the Buccaneers on a low note, having just been eliminated from playoff contention and coming off a blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks (37-9).
Recent Form
- – Already out of the playoff race, so the team’s energy has been inconsistent.
- – The offense shows flashes of big plays but still makes too many mistakes.
- – Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. mixes solid reads with risky throws, making things unpredictable.
ATS Trends
- – 1–5 ATS in their last six road games.
- – 2–4 ATS in their last six divisional games.
- – 0–4 ATS when allowing 24+ points.
Key Injuries
- – Drake London was listed as the team’s only non-participant in the estimated report—day-to-day recovery from a PCL sprain three weeks ago.
- – The Falcons will continue to monitor a few defenders working through injuries, including Brandon Dorlus, who missed Sunday’s loss against the Seahawks with a groin injury.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) are heading into their crucial Thursday night matchup against the Falcons with the NFC South title on the line, despite suffering a disappointing upset loss at home to the New Orleans Saints (24-20) last week
Recent Form
- – The team is playing better after fixing some problems on offense.
- – The defense is creating more pressure and stopping opponents well near the goal line.
- – They play much better at home than when on the road.
ATS Trends
- – 5–1 ATS in their last six as home favorites.
- – 4–0 ATS vs teams with losing records.
- – 6 straight home wins against the Falcons.
Key Injuries
On Monday, for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, six players did not participate in the team’s walk-through:
- – S Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder) questionable but likely.
- – OLB Haason Reddick (ankle) questionable.
- – TE Cade Otton (knee)
- – DB Christian Izien (neck)
- – LB SirVocea Dennis (hip)
- – G Ben Bredeson (knee)
Match Breakdown
- – Tampa Bay has the upper hand on the line of scrimmage.
- – The Falcons have had trouble protecting their quarterback, so Tampa’s pass rush will likely make Penix throw quickly.
- – On offense, Tampa’s long passing game works well against Atlanta’s weak secondary, especially if Godwin plays.
- – Atlanta can stay competitive if Bijan Robinson plays and controls tempo, but without a dominant ground attack, they’ll have difficulty sustaining drives.
Over/Under Notes
- – Tampa’s last five home games vs division rivals have gone UNDER.
- – Falcons have hit the UNDER in 4 of their last 6 due to inconsistent offense.
- – Weather: mild, no expected impact — slight lean to the Under 43.5 given both teams’ red-zone tendencies.
Best NFL Props Bets
- – Michael Penix Jr. – Under Passing Yards (~236.5)
- – Tampa’s stronger pass rush and Atlanta’s weak offensive line make it likely Penix won’t pass for a lot of yards.
- – Mike Evans – Anytime Touchdown
- – Tampa often looks to Evans near the end zone, and Atlanta struggles to cover receivers in the red zone.
- – Rachaad White – Over Receiving Yards
- – Atlanta’s zone defense often gives running backs plenty of passing opportunities so that White could rack up yards.
Matchup Prediction
- Pick: Buccaneers –5.5
- Lean: Under 43.5
- Best Player Prop: Mike Evans Anytime TD
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