Kentucky Derby Contender Profile: Final Gambit

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Kentucky Derby Contender Profile

Final Gambit: Late Bloomer Could Shake Up the Derby Field

As the 151st Kentucky Derby approaches, horse racing betting markets are buzzing with potential value picks. One intriguing longshot generating attention is Final Gambit, a promising colt who punched his ticket to Churchill Downs with a powerful stakes win. 

While his Kentucky Derby odds reflect his lack of dirt experience, his late-season surge has turned heads among fans of Kentucky Derby betting.

Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luan Machado, Final Gambit will be one of two Cox-trained runners in this year’s Derby, alongside Tappan Street. Cox, who claimed the 2021 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun, is no stranger to the spotlight. This marks his 12th Derby starter.

Solid Pedigree and Emerging Form

Final Gambit is by Not This Time, the sire of 2022 Derby runner-up Epicenter. Though Not This Time had a brief racing career, he’s proven to pass on both class and stamina. Pachinko, the dam of Final Gambit, is a direct daughter of Tapit. Known for producing top-level stayers like Belmont winners Essential Quality and Tapwrit, Tapit adds depth to Final Gambit’s stamina credentials.

Despite making just four career starts, Final Gambit has shown strong potential. He has recorded two victories along with two other finishes in the money. After failing to win in his first two races, he broke through in February at Turfway Park, winning his maiden race by over two lengths. A month later, he delivered his biggest performance to date.

Punching His Ticket in the Jeff Ruby Steaks

With a commanding victory in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, Final Gambit secured his spot in the Kentucky Derby. The 3½-length score over Derby rival Flying Mohawk secured him 100 qualifying points and boosted his profile on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

A significant uncertainty for Final Gambit is his lack of dirt experience, as all four of his career starts have come on synthetic surfaces. His run in the Kentucky Derby will mark his first attempt over a traditional dirt track.

Kentucky Derby Betting Outlook for Final Gambit

With a commanding performance in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, Final Gambit punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. In the Kentucky Derby future lines, he is currently listed at +3000. 

Given his untested form on dirt and limited racing experience, many bettors are cautious about backing him as a win contender. Still, his late-running style could make him a clever play in exacta, trifecta, or superfecta tickets, especially in a race with several early speed types that could wear each other out.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby field, Final Gambit may not be a headliner. Still, his pedigree, trainer, and running style make him an intriguing option for those seeking value in the horse racing betting pools. For more Derby coverage, latest odds, and expert picks, be sure to visit our racebook.