2026 Pennsylvania Governor Odds

Shapiro vs. Garrity: Bet the Governor Race

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2026 Pennsylvania Governor Odds

Pennsylvania governor odds center on Josh Shapiro, who is seeking another term. Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity is challenging him. Compare the dated candidate odds, follow the polling separately and see what each outcome would mean before you check the market at BUSR.

Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Last updated: October 8, 2026 · Reviewed by: BUSR Editorial Team

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Candidate market

Shapiro vs. Garrity: Pennsylvania Governor Odds

The snapshot below shows quoted American odds for the two featured candidates. It is dated, so use it to understand the market rather than as a current price. The payout calculator illustrates a stake at the reference odds; it does not place a bet. To compare every state, see all governor election odds.

Democrat · Incumbent Josh Shapiro -10000 American odds
Republican · Challenger Stacy Garrity +1600 American odds

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A separate measure of the race

What do the Pennsylvania governor polls say?

Polls ask voters whom they support; odds quote a payout on a defined result. The two can move differently. Keep the dates and methods separate when comparing them, and do not read either one as a declared winner.

Shapiro vs. Garrity polling

Average checked September 25, 2026
Josh Shapiro portrait
DemocratJosh Shapiro54.8%
Stacy Garrity portrait
RepublicanStacy Garrity31.8%
Shapiro leads by 23.0 points in the polling average
Shapiro54.8%
Garrity31.8%

Four recent polls in this average

NY Times/Siena · Sep. 15–2258–38 · Shapiro +20
PennLive · Aug. 18–2256–25 · Shapiro +31
Franklin & Marshall · Aug. 17–2350–25 · Shapiro +25
NY Times/Siena · Aug. 17–2155–39 · Shapiro +16

Polls measure voter support, while odds price a defined betting outcome. This polling outlook rates the race Safe Democratic; neither the rating nor the average declares an election winner.

Polling average and rating · Candidate photos: Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board. Polling percentages are not betting odds or a BUSR offer.

The incumbent and challenger

Why Shapiro vs. Garrity is a distinct governor race

Shapiro is running on his record as governor, an office he has held since January 2023. Garrity holds another statewide office, state treasurer, and is seeking the executive office. This is an incumbent defense, unlike open governor races in Georgia and Wisconsin. Compare those open-seat contests in our Georgia governor odds and Wisconsin governor odds.

Josh Shapiro (D)

Shapiro won the 2022 governor election against Doug Mastriano, 56.5% to 41.7% in the final result. In 2026, voters will judge his first term and decide whether to give him another.

Market question: Does the incumbent win reelection?

Stacy Garrity (R)

Garrity has held the statewide treasurer’s office since 2021. Her bid asks voters to change the party holding the governor’s office, rather than choose a successor to a retiring governor.

Market question: Can the challenger defeat an incumbent?

Pennsylvania’s governor leads the state executive branch. This outcome does not decide control of the U.S. Senate or the U.S. House, even though congressional elections take place on the same day. For those races, see all 2026 midterm election odds.

Background: Governor’s office · State treasurer biography · 2022 final result.

Reading the road to November

What could change the Pennsylvania governor race?

A polling lead describes the current surveys. The election depends on who turns out and how votes are distributed across the state. These are the signals to watch as new polls, campaign events and updated market prices arrive. For our analysis of the key races, see our free election picks.

Suburban and metro support

Watch whether either candidate changes the margin around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. A statewide poll can move when support shifts in populous areas, even before election day turnout is known.

Support beyond each base

The challenger needs to close a sizable gap in the dated polling average. Later surveys can show whether more voters are backing Garrity, Shapiro or someone else. Read each poll’s field dates and sample before comparing it with the last one.

Turnout and vote method

Early and mail voting are available under Pennsylvania’s election rules. Survey support and actual votes are different things; the official result comes from the state’s count, not the final poll or the final price.

Price versus opinion

If a new poll changes the narrative, an odds quote may change too. The two are different measures. Confirm the current candidate, price and market wording in BUSR before acting on either.

Voting information: Pennsylvania election calendar.

Before placing a wager

How do you bet on the Pennsylvania governor election?

1. Find the race

Log in to BUSR and look for an available Pennsylvania governor market.

2. Confirm the quote

Check the candidate, current American odds and potential payout for your stake.

3. Read the terms

Review the market’s settlement rules and confirm your selection before submitting. For a full walkthrough, see how to bet on elections.

Ready to check the Pennsylvania market?

See any candidate odds and terms currently available in your BUSR account.

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Quick answers

Pennsylvania Governor Odds FAQ

What are the 2026 Pennsylvania governor odds?

The odds compare candidate outcomes in the Pennsylvania governor election. The displayed prices come from a dated reference snapshot and may differ from what is offered in your BUSR account. Check your account for any available market, current prices and settlement terms.

Who is running for Pennsylvania governor in 2026?

The featured general-election matchup is Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro against Republican Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania’s state treasurer. Check the state election office for the full ballot.

When is the 2026 Pennsylvania governor election?

Pennsylvania’s general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What do the Shapiro vs. Garrity polls show?

The dated polling snapshot above shows the average and its source. Poll results and ratings can change; they are separate from betting odds and do not determine the election.

Is Pennsylvania a toss-up in the governor race?

Ratings can change as new information arrives. Check the dated polling panel above for its latest assessment. A toss-up is an editorial rating, not an exact tie or a betting price.

How do polls differ from Pennsylvania governor odds?

A poll measures responses from a surveyed sample. American odds show a quoted payout for a market outcome. Neither is the certified result, and the displayed polling and odds snapshots have different sources and dates.

Did Josh Shapiro win the 2022 Pennsylvania governor election?

Yes. The 2022 final result listed Shapiro at 56.5% and Doug Mastriano at 41.7%. Garrity is his opponent in the 2026 matchup covered here.

Does a strong favorite have to win?

No. Negative American odds indicate a lower potential profit relative to the stake at that quoted price. They do not guarantee the candidate wins.

What does a -10000 price mean?

At -10000, a $100 winning stake yields $1 profit plus the returned $100 stake. That is an illustration using the dated reference price, not a current BUSR offer.

What does a +1600 price mean?

At +1600, a $100 winning stake yields $1,600 profit plus the returned $100 stake. That is an illustration using the dated reference price, not a current BUSR offer.

How can I bet on the Pennsylvania governor election?

Log in to BUSR, search for an available Pennsylvania governor market, confirm the named candidate and current odds, and review the posted settlement rules before placing a wager. Availability may vary.

Does the governor result decide Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate representation?

No. The governor leads Pennsylvania’s state executive branch. U.S. Senate elections select federal legislators and have separate outcomes and markets.

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