Pennsylvania Derby 2025: Baeza the Favorite, Best Bets & Top Value Picks
Hello again, horse racing fans, to the pinnacle of the autumn racing season for three-year-olds. The $1 million Pennsylvania Derby is upon us, and the excitement at Parx Racing is absolutely palpable. This weekend, the nation’s top sophomores converge on Bensalem, Pennsylvania, for the premier event of the fall, a 1 1/8-mile test of speed and stamina that often serves as a key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The atmosphere on Derby Day is electric, with thousands of fans packing the grandstand and picnic grove, creating a deafening roar as the contenders break from the gate. You can find all the latest Pennsylvania Derby odds right here as we prepare for a spectacular day of racing.
Pennsylvania Derby History
The Pennsylvania Derby has a rich and storied history. First run in 1979 at what was then known as Keystone Race Track, it has grown in stature and prestige over the decades. The race found its permanent home at Parx Racing, formerly Philadelphia Park, and has consistently attracted top-tier talent.
Past Winners
Notable past winners include Hall of Fame trainers like Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas, who have used this race as a launching pad for future champions. The September date on the calendar, a strategic move made in 2010 to better position the race as a Breeders’ Cup prep, has paid immense dividends, drawing horses who competed in the Triple Crown series and are now looking for a final big win before the year’s end.
Race Day Expected Weather
The weather forecast for Saturday calls for partly cloudy skies and a pleasant high of 78°F, creating perfect conditions for fast times and a thrilling contest. Every serious fan is looking for the best Pennsylvania Derby betting strategies, and we provide them here. Whether you are an experienced handicapper or a newcomer to the sport, our in-depth analysis will give you the edge you need to make smart wagers and truly enjoy the day. Get ready to bet on the Pennsylvania Derby and see a field of champions compete for glory.
2025 Edition Expectations
This year’s edition promises to be one of the most competitive fields in recent memory, with a confirmed cast of ten contenders, each with a unique backstory and a compelling case for victory. We have horses with strong East Coast form, battle-tested colts from the demanding Kentucky circuit, and even a few dark horses looking to upset the balance of power. The official morning line has finally dropped, providing us with a clear picture of the public’s early opinion on this field. Our meticulous breakdown will provide all the crucial information, from past performances to trainer and jockey insights, that will help you decipher the most favorable Pennsylvania Derby odds and place your bets with confidence.
The Contenders: Horse-by-Horse Analysis
A field of ten talented three-year-olds will enter the starting gate for the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby, each with a story to tell and a strong chance to etch their name in history. We have carefully studied their past performances, analyzed their running styles, and considered all the key connections to bring you this comprehensive breakdown. Here is our exclusive, horse-by-horse guide to this year’s incredible field.
Baeza: The Morning Line Favorite
The morning line pegs Baeza as the deserving favorite at 2-1 odds, and you can see why. This magnificent son of McKinzie has demonstrated exceptional class and talent throughout the season. Trainer John A. Shirreffs, known for his patient and masterful handling of horses, has brought Baeza to this race in peak condition.
His last start was a brilliant second-place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, a race that followed a series of strong performances against top-tier competition. Jockey Hector I. Berrios, who has established a great rapport with this colt, gets the call and gives him every chance to win.
Baeza’s running style is built on a powerful late surge. He prefers to settle just behind the front-runners before unleashing a blistering turn of foot in the stretch. The Parx dirt course, with its long, sweeping turns and ample homestretch, is tailor-made for his closing kick. His rating of 7.76 reflects his elite ability, making him a horse that you simply must consider when examining the Pennsylvania Derby odds.
Goal Oriented: The Haskell Runner-Up
Coming in at 5-2 on the morning line, Goal Oriented is a formidable rival to the favorite. His rating of 7.41 and his connections are a strong signal of his quality. He is trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, a nine-time winner of the Haskell Stakes and a frequent visitor to the Pennsylvania Derby winner’s circle. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., arguably the best rider in the world, climbs aboard, forming a potent combination.
Goal Oriented’s last start was a gritty third-place finish in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park, where he battled for the lead and held his ground against some of the best in his division. This son of Not This Time possesses a high cruising speed and an immense will to win. He will likely go straight to the front or sit just off the lead, ready to pounce. He has a history of engaging in fierce stretch duels and has the stamina to see them through. His consistent class and powerful running style make him a top-tier contender for anyone serious about Pennsylvania Derby betting.
Gosger: The Other Haskell Star
Brendan P. Walsh sends Gosger to Parx as a serious contender at 4-1 on the morning line. This son of Nyquist, with a stellar rating of 7.83, brings top-flight form to the race. His last start was a stellar second in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes, finishing just a neck behind the winner. Jockey Luis Saez will pilot this talented colt, who has shown remarkable consistency in his last few starts.
Gosger is a tactical runner, capable of sitting just off the pace and making a decisive move when it counts. His runner-up effort in a Grade 1 race against elite company proves he belongs in this mag discussion. Walsh has a reputation for preparing his horses impeccably, and Gosger looks like a prime example. The horse’s high rating indicates he has put in some fantastic performances, and he is a must-include in all exotic wagers. When you bet on the Pennsylvania Derby, overlooking Gosger would be a costly mistake.
Magnitude: The Travers Stakes Competitor
Magnitude, a son of Not This Time, brings the deep form of the Saratoga meet to Parx. Trained by the Hall of Famer Steven M. Asmussen and ridden by Ben Curtis, Magnitude is listed at 6-1 on the morning line. His last start was a perfect third in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, a race that often serves as the most critical indicator of a champion three-year-old.
Magnitude has been improving steadily with each start and has proven he can handle the top level of competition. His running style is versatile; he can sit off a fast pace and finish with a strong kick. Asmussen is a master at getting his horses to peak for big-money races, and he has Magnitude primed for a huge performance. His 7.57 rating suggests he is a horse of immense quality. He represents a fantastic value play for those looking for favorable Pennsylvania Derby odds outside the top three.
Big Truzz: The Ellis Park Derby Winner
Brian A. Lynch brings Big Truzz to the race with a win in his last start. This son of Triple Crown winner Justify, at 10-1 on the morning line, has a promising profile. He won the Listed Ellis Park Derby, a race that has been a springboard for many talented horses. Jockey Javier J. Castellano, a two-time Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Jockey, will be aboard, and his presence is a significant plus.
Big Truzz’s rating of 7.07 indicates he is a horse on the rise, and his recent victory suggests he is figuring things out at the right time. He has a high cruising speed and loves to run on or near the lead. The 1 1/8-mile distance is well within his scope, and he could be a major factor if he gets a clean trip. Big Truzz is a horse that offers an attractive price for anyone making a serious Pennsylvania Derby betting strategy.
Mo Plex: The Jim Dandy Player
Mo Plex, trained by Jeremiah C. Englehart, returns to the East Coast from his campaign at Saratoga. This Complexity colt is a solid contender at 12-1 on the morning line, with a rating of 7.55. His last start was a respectable fourth in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, where he was only beaten by top-class horses. Jockey Joseph D. Ramos will be in the saddle.
Mo Plex’s strength lies in his tactical speed and tenacity. He is a horse who likes to be involved early, and he has a history of sticking around for a piece of the pie. He might not possess the blistering turn of foot of the favorites, but he has the stamina and grit to grind his way into the picture in the homestretch. He is an excellent play for the bottom of the exacta or trifecta, and his solid Pennsylvania Derby odds make him a tempting option.
David Of Athens: The Fresh Face
David of Athens, trained by Brendan P. Walsh, shares the same trainer as Gosger and is listed at 12-1 on the morning line. This Nyquist colt’s last start was a dominant first-place finish in a conditioned allowance race at Ellis Park, where he earned a career-best rating of 6.11. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has a talent for winning big races, will be aboard.
While his form may not be as flashy as some of the top contenders, his last win was imposing, earning him a massive 125 rating. This figure is a huge red flag that he is a horse ready to make a major jump in class. Walsh has confidence in this horse to place him in a Grade 1 race, and that speaks volumes. For those who want to bet on the Pennsylvania Derby with an exciting upside, David Of Athens is your horse. His relatively generous odds could lead to a massive return.
So Sandy: The Curlin Runner-Up
So Sandy, a son of Omaha Beach, comes into the race with a solid second-place finish in the 2025 Curlin Stakes, a key prep at Saratoga. Trained by Cherie DeVaux and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, he had Pennsylvania Derby odds of 15-1 on the morning line. His 6.34 rating suggests he is a capable competitor, but he will need to improve to win at this level.
His last race was a very good effort, where he showed he can compete against graded stakes company. Cherie DeVaux is a rising star in the training ranks, and she has this colt prepared for a strong performance. His running style is versatile, and he can sit just off the pace. He is a live longshot who could spice up the exotics and offer a good return on your Pennsylvania Derby betting.
Happily Delusional: The Local Hope
Happily Delusional is one of the local hopes, trained by Louis C. Linder Jr. and ridden by Paco Lopez. He enters this race as a significant longshot at 30-1 on the morning line. His last start was a fourth-place finish in the local prep, the Smarty Jones Stakes. His 104 rating indicates he has some decent talent, but he will need to put in a career-best effort to be a factor here.
His home-track advantage should not be overlooked, however. Linder has been training this horse specifically for this race, and Paco Lopez knows the Parx track better than anyone. He is a longshot that could hit the board if the pace collapses, and his high Pennsylvania Derby odds offer great value for those looking for a huge payday.
Altobelli: The Ultra Longshot
The longest shot on the board is Altobelli, listed at 50-1 on the morning line. Trained by James Nicholson Jr. and ridden by Angel Castillo, this son of Authentic is a major question mark. His last start was a sixth-place finish in a Delaware allowance race, where he earned a meager 90 rating.
He has a rating of 0.00, which suggests he has not competed against the caliber of horses he will face today. However, horse racing is the “Sport of Kings” for a reason—anything can happen. Perhaps this horse is a late-developing type who is ready to make a massive jump in form. For a small wager, he is an ultimate longshot to spice up your trifecta or superfecta tickets. If you love to bet on the Pennsylvania Derby for the longshot thrill, Altobelli is your horse.
The Pennsylvania Derby Showcase is Fantastic. Don’t miss the Chance to be Part of the Action
This year’s Pennsylvania Derby field presents a fantastic puzzle for handicappers and fans alike. Baeza is the obvious choice on form and class, and he deserves his favoritism. However, Goal Oriented’s strong showing in the Haskell and his top-tier connections make him a serious threat. Gosger’s elite rating and near-miss in the Haskell make him an equally compelling choice. Magnitude’s strong Travers performance and Big Truzz’s recent victory add a deeper layer of complexity. The longshots like So Sandy and David of Athens add an element of unpredictability that makes this race so compelling.
The BUSR handicappers’ pick for the win is Baeza. His tactical running style and immense class should see him through. For the exacta and trifecta, I am keying him with Goal Oriented and Gosger. For a longshot to include in your superfecta, consider David of Athens, who used his incredible last-out rating as a sign of his potential.
There are many ways to bet on the Pennsylvania Derby, and with the incredible array of talent on display, you cannot go wrong with placing a wager. The time is now, the stage is set, and the horses are ready to run. Study our analysis, make your selections, and prepare for an unforgettable day of racing.
The Pennsylvania Derby is a premier event, and with our exclusive odds, expert analysis, a user-friendly platform, and an incredible racebook promo, you have everything you need to succeed. There has never been a better time to get in on the action and place your bet.
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