Preakness Stakes Betting Analysis: Handicapping the Field Before the Draw

HORSE RACINGNEWS
May 9, 2025

Preakness Stakes Betting Analysis

Handicapping the Field Before the Draw

 

As the 2025 Preakness Stakes approaches, horse racing fans are diving into the latest updates on contenders, hoping to spot value early in the Preakness Stakes betting odds before post positions are set. The Preakness Stakes draw is scheduled for this Monday, May 12th.

With Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby champion, opting out of the race, horse racing betting on the Preakness Stakes is especially unpredictable this year, opening the door for new contenders to emerge. Understanding where each horse stands now is essential for those looking to get a head start on Preakness Stakes betting.

Bet on Preakness action is heating up with a competitive mix of veterans and rising stars expected at Pimlico on May 17. Preakness Stakes odds have already begun to shift in anticipation, so let’s break down the early field rankings based on recent form, past performances, and current Preakness momentum.

 

Top Contenders to Watch

 

  1. Journalism (5-2) Runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, Journalism enters the Preakness as the likely favorite. The Michael McCarthy trainee has been remarkably consistent, with strong finishes in top races and a Group 2 win in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He has proven he can close well and keep up with fast company, making him an appealing early choice for bettors.
  2. Rodriguez (5-1) Bob Baffert’s promising colt was scratched from the Derby due to a minor foot issue but remains a major player. With two wins and two runner-up finishes in five starts, Rodriguez is rested and ready to make an impact at Pimlico. His victory in the Wood Memorial showcased his tactical ability and versatility.
  3. Sandman (8-1) Although seventh in the Kentucky Derby, Sandman remains a respected contender. Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, made notable efforts in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, proving he belongs in the upper tier of this competitive group. Known for his deep-closing kick, he could benefit from a hot pace and has the pedigree for longer distances.

 

Middle Tier Runners with Upside

 

  1. River Thames (12-1) This Todd Pletcher-trained colt had an encouraging start to 2025, finishing second to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth and third in the Blue Grass Stakes. His versatility could serve him well at Pimlico, but he’ll need a cleaner trip to be a serious factor.
  2. Clever Again (12-1) Clever Again comes in with two recent wins, including a score in the Hot Springs Stakes. With limited experience but undeniable talent, he’s a wildcard. Trainer Steve Asmussen has a strong Preakness record, boosting Clever Again among bettors looking for value.
  3. American Promise (20-1) stands out as the most seasoned entrant in the field, boasting ten career starts. His win in the Virginia Derby was impressive, and his run in the Kentucky Derby showed heart, even if the result wasn’t top-tier. He’s a reliable choice for deeper exotic plays.

 

Longshots Worth a Look

 

  1. Gosger (20-1) With two wins in three career starts, Gosger has shown potential but faces a step up in class here. His win in the Lexington Stakes gives him momentum, but he must prove he belongs against stiffer competition.
  2. Pay Billy (30-1). Billy is riding a hot streak, winning five of his last six races. Though none were in graded stakes, his consistency and form make him an intriguing underdog. For bettors hunting big payouts, Pay Billy could deliver if the pace falls apart.
  3. Heart of Honor (30-1) A global wildcard, Heart of Honor has only one win in four starts but consistently hits the board. His runner-up finish in the UAE Derby showed talent, but transitioning to North American racing is a question mark.
  4. Caldera (30-1) With six starts under his belt, Caldera has experience but lacks a standout win. His best effort came earlier in the season, and his eighth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby puts him at the bottom of our early power rankings.

 

Looking Ahead

 

With the Preakness Stakes betting field still shaping up, bettors have a unique opportunity to get in early on rising value plays before the draw. Keep an eye on training reports, weather conditions, and pace scenarios in the coming days.

Whether backing the favorites or searching for a live longshot, the Preakness is wide open for a big score. For the most current odds and expert picks, visit our racebook to place your bets.

 

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