NBA Sunday Night Totals: Pace, Fouls & Live Over Spots

NBA
December 7, 2025

NBA Sunday Night Totals Pace, Fouls & Live Over Spots

 

We conduct a deep, template-driven analysis of two key matchups: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, to isolate the best value angles for Pace, Fouls, and Live Over Spots.

 

BUSR Bet $5 and Get $100 promo banner

 

Game 1: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Los Angeles Lakers 

 

Latest Betting Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total

 

TeamSpreadMoneyline (ML)Total (Over/Under)
Los Angeles Lakers-5 (-110)-196O 233 (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers+5 (-110)+157U 233 (-110)

 

76ers Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors

 

Recent Form

  • – Record: 12–9. The 76ers are struggling to maintain pace in the standings.
  • – The team has gone Under the total in 5 of their last 9 games.

ATS Trends

  • – The Philadelphia 76ers boast a strong 6–1–1 ATS record on the road.
  • – The total has gone Over in 6 of their last 12 home games.

Key Injuries & Impact

  • – Joel Embiid (C): Questionable (injury recovery). His absence would significantly deflate the Over prospects.
  • – Paul George (PF): Out (injury recovery).

Strengths & Weaknesses (Totals Focus)

  • – Strength (FT Rate): The 76ers maintain a high Free Throw Attempt rate (e.g., 23.5 FTA/G on the road).
  • – Weakness (Pace): Despite recent upticks, the 76ers are generally a slow-paced team, ranking near the bottom 10 in the league.

 

Lakers Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors

 

Recent Form

  • – Record: 16–5. The Lakers are off to a dominant start
  • – The team has gone Over the total in 14 of their 20 games.

ATS Trends

  • – The Lakers are 12–8 ATS overall.
  • – Strong Home Over Trend: The total has gone Over in a remarkable 10 out of 10 home games.

Key Injuries

  • – LeBron James (F): Probable. 

Strengths & Weaknesses (Totals Focus)

  • – Strength (Scoring): The Lakers’ offense is elite, averaging 119.2 points per game (PS/G).
  • – Weakness (FT Rate Allowed): The Lakers allow opponents to attempt free throws (4.9 FTA/G). This creates easy points for opponents.

 

Head-to-Head History

  • – High Scoring: The total has gone Over in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.
  • – Scoring Floor: The average combined score in their last three matchups exceeds the current 235.5 total.

 

Matchup Breakdown 

 

When the 76ers have the ball:

  • – Offensive Dip: Recent Offensive Rating is 113.1 (Last 10 games).
  • – Maxey Focus: All offense runs through Tyrese Maxey (32.6 PPG, 7.2 APG) due to Embiid’s status.

When the Lakers have the ball 

  • – Elite Offense: Lakers average 119.2 points per game against a league-average 76ers defense (DRtg 114.8).
  • – High Efficiency: High True Shooting percentages maximize points, even if the pace is slow.

 

Over/Under Analysis & Betting Trends

  • – Conflicting Trends: The 76ers’ slow pace suggests the Under, but the Lakers’ dominant 10-0 Home Over Trend and the high Free Throw environment point strongly to the Over.
  • – Total Value: The total of 233 is depressed due to the 76ers’ historical pace.

 

Best Prop Bets (Totals-Focused Angles)

  • – Team Total Prop: Lakers Over X points: Given their 119.2 PS/G and the 76ers’ compromised defense, this is a strong floor bet.
  • – Live Betting Total:  Wait for the total to drop after a slow first quarter, capitalizing on the guaranteed FT-driven scoring later in the game.
  • – Player Prop: Tyrese Maxey Over 7.5 Assists (-110): With Embiid potentially out, Maxey’s playmaking will spike.

 

Prediction & Best Bet

 

Pick: Lakers Team Total Over

 

Why:

The Lakers’ elite offense (119.2 PS/G) and perfect 10-0 Home Over Trend are simply too potent to fade against a 76ers defense potentially missing key personnel.

 

💡 Pro Tip: Before you bet on any NFL game this week, boost your bankroll with the $1,500 + 25 spins new-player bonus.

BUSR $1,500 welcome bonus with 25 free spins promo banner

 

Game 2: Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

 

Latest Betting Odds – Spread, Moneyline & Total

 

TeamSpreadMoneyline (ML)Total (Over/Under)
Oklahoma City Thunder-9.5 (-110)-417O 236.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz+9.5 (-110)+306U 236.5 (-110)

 

Jazz Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors

 

Recent Form

  • – Record: 8–13. The Jazz are struggling, ranking 11th in the Western Conference.
  • – The team has gone Over the total in 12 of their 20 games this season, showing a strong Over lean.

ATS Trends

  • – Utah is 11–9 ATS overall, performing better as an underdog than their record suggests.
  • – Home Over Trend: The Jazz have hit the Over in 9 of their last 12 home games.

Key Injuries & Impact

  • – Lauri Markkanen (F): Probable. His return ensures the Jazz’s best scoring punch is available, necessary for hitting the Over.
  • – Jusuf Nurkik (C): Probable. His health is vital for maintaining any defensive resistance.

Strengths & Weaknesses (Totals Focus)

  • – Strength (Pace): The Jazz play at an extremely fast pace, ranked 8th in the NBA.
  • – Weakness (Defense): The Jazz defense is historically poor, ranking 29th in opponent PPG allowed this season (124.6 Opponent PPG). 

 

Thunder Overview – Form, Trends & Key Factors

 

Recent Form

  • – Record: 21–1. The Thunder are the league’s best team by record.
  • – The total has gone Over in 12 of their 22 games this season

ATS Trends

  • – Oklahoma City is 11–11 ATS.
  • – The total has gone Over in 7 of their 12 road games.

Key Injuries

  • – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G): Probable. His high usage (33.5 USG) and efficiency guarantee the Thunder’s massive scoring output.
  • – Chet Holmgren (C): Probable. His rim protection is the only factor trying to keep the score Under.

Strengths & Weaknesses (Totals Focus)

  • – Strength (Pace): The Thunder are one of the fastest teams, ranked in the top 6 in the NBA in Pace.
  • – Strength (Offense): Oklahoma City’s offense is elite, averaging 122.3 PS/G this season.
  • – Weakness (FT Rate Allowed): The Thunder’s defense is disciplined, allowing a low number of free throws to opponents.

 

Head-to-Head History

  • – Extremely High Totals: The teams averaged 245 combined points in their four matchups last season.
  • – Over Trend: Historical matchups strongly favor the Over.

Matchup Breakdown: Offense vs Defense 

 

When The Jazz Has the Ball

  • – Extreme Pace: Jazz rank Top 8 in Pace, driving up total possessions.
  • – Tough Matchup: Running into the Thunder’s elite defense (105.2 DRtg).
  • – Markkanen Volume: Lauri Markkanen (28.5 PPG) must maintain high volume (3-pointers, quick shots) to challenge the Over.

When the Thunder Has the Ball 

  • – Perfect Storm: Elite Offensive Rating (120.2) meets Top 6 Pace.
  • – SGA Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.6 PPG) faces virtually no defensive resistance; his scoring prop is highly favorable.
  • – High-Volume 3s: Thunder’s frequent 3-point attempts against the Jazz’s spread-out defense guarantee high efficiency.

 

Over/Under Analysis & Betting Trends

  • – The projected total of 232.5 is undervalued due to the pace collision and the Jazz’s league-worst defense. The projected score, based on pace and efficiency metrics, is closer to 240.

Best Prop Bets 

  • – Game Total Prop: Over 232.5 (-110): The top priority bet. The pace and defensive mismatch are overwhelming drivers for the Over.
  • – Team Total Prop: Thunder Over 119.5 (-115): The Thunder’s average points per game (122.3) is well over this line, and they face the league’s worst defense.
  • – Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points: SGA (32.9 PPG) is facing the league’s worst defense; his ceiling is maximized here.

 

Prediction & Best Bet

 

Pick: Jazz vs. Thunder Over 232.5

 

Why:

The combination of two high-pace teams, the Thunder’s elite scoring, and the Jazz’s bottom-tier defense creates a matchup destined for an extremely high score well above the posted total.

 

 

How & Where to Bet on NBA Online. Why BUSR is the Go-To

 

Ready to bet on the NBA Season? You need a sportsbook that’s reliable, easy to use, and packed with value. That’s where BUSR comes in.

We make it incredibly simple to get started with online football betting. Our sign-up process is quick and hassle-free, bringing you into the action in minutes. We offer fast and secure payouts, so you can trust that your winnings will be in your account when you want them.

At BUSR, we pride ourselves on having deep sportsbook coverage for all sports, not just the NBA. But for basketball fans, our platform is a paradise. We offer extensive NBA odds and betting options, from spreads and moneylines to player props and futures. Plus, our 100% welcome bonus of up to $ 1,500 + 25 free spins and our refer a friend program get you into the live action.

As we celebrate 10 years of excellence, we’re confident in saying we are one of the best NBA betting sites in the U.S. Our decade of experience has built a platform you can trust, providing a premier online sports betting experience for everyone from the casual Sunday viewer to the serious handicapper.

 

 

Score up to $1,500
on your first deposit

100% Welcome Bonus + 25 Casino Spins

Join the BUSR Experience. Stream LIVE all major sport leagues, enjoy live in-game moments with live betting, exclusive team props, and season futures. You control your winnings with our new Early Cash-Out option, no need to wait for game endings. Enjoy 24-hour payouts, dive into over 1,000 casino games, and access to exclusive lines and boosted odds.