FIFA World Cup Predictions: Favorites and Path to the Final

SOCCER
June 9, 2026

Updated June 9, 2026 · Based on Elo ratings · Tournament starts June 11

Let’s analyze the World Cup Predictions for each top contender. Spain is the overwhelming favorite at 29.3% win probability – more than double Argentina’s 17.4%. The table below uses Elo ratings and 100,000 tournament simulations to show the probability of every top nation advancing through each round, combined with live BUSR betting odds so you can act on every angle before June 11.
Get up to $3,000 Bonus
Bet the 2026 World Cup
JOIN NOW
New customers only. Min $50 deposit required. Bet and stream the FIFA World Cup live at BUSR. Opening match kicks off June 11 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City. Must be 18+. Terms and conditions apply. Please bet responsibly.

2026 World Cup Predictions Round-by-Round

 

NationGroupsR32R16QFSFChampionBet Odds
Spain

Group H
99.8%82.5%66.4%53.5%42.8%29.3%+450
Argentina

Group J
99.0%74.7%54.2%35.8%28.2%17.4%+850
France

Group I
97.5%65.7%44.5%24.9%17.6%9.7%+490
Brazil

Group C
97.6%74.0%53.7%36.5%15.8%7.5%+850
England

Group L
98.6%66.0%34.1%18.8%12.5%6.3%+620
Portugal

Group K
95.5%54.0%28.2%13.2%7.9%3.6%+1000
Colombia

Group K
95.3%51.4%27.0%12.8%7.3%3.3%+3400
Ecuador

Group E
97.9%67.2%39.2%14.2%7.2%2.9%+7500
Switzerland

Group B
98.3%57.3%33.9%16.4%5.2%1.8%+7500
Norway

Group I
87.9%43.3%20.0%9.6%3.9%1.4%+2600
Germany

Group E
86.0%35.0%18.0%9.0%3.5%1.4%+1400
Croatia

Group L
95.1%41.9%17.1%7.8%3.4%1.3%+8000
Mexico HOST

Group A
94.8%49.8%24.7%13.0%3.8%1.3%+7500
Belgium

Group G
95.1%47.8%25.4%8.0%3.5%1.2%+3300
Japan

Group F
91.9%36.4%14.4%7.7%3.3%1.1%+5200
Netherlands

Group F
83.0%38.0%16.0%7.5%3.0%1.1%+2000
Uruguay

Group H
94.9%46.9%13.5%6.8%2.9%1.0%+6400
Senegal

Group I
80.9%39.4%19.5%9.8%2.9%0.9%+11000
Morocco

Group C
85.8%45.7%18.9%8.9%2.1%0.6%+4900
Paraguay

Group D
77.5%40.6%19.5%8.3%2.1%0.6%+16000
Canada HOST

Group B
93.8%40.4%16.1%5.9%1.3%0.3%+15000
Scotland

Group J
78.6%37.4%15.0%6.3%1.2%0.3%+24000
Austria

Group J
77.5%28.9%9.6%3.8%1.1%0.3%+15000
Australia

Group D
64.8%30.2%12.6%4.7%0.9%0.2%+50000
Sweden

Group F
53.6%17.8%6.2%2.0%0.3%0.1%+30000
Algeria

Group J
60.1%22.1%7.9%2.9%0.5%0.1%+28000
Panama

Group L
68.4%25.6%9.5%3.1%0.5%0.1%+40000
Czechia

Group A
78.5%29.0%10.6%3.8%0.6%0.1%+28000
USA HOST

Group D
47.4%20.0%7.3%2.3%0.4%0.1%+6500
Korea Republic

Group A
82.2%30.0%11.0%4.0%0.7%0.1%+38000
Uzbekistan

Group K
47.7%17.2%6.2%2.0%0.3%0.1%+50000
Iran

Group G
82.9%29.6%10.8%2.8%0.7%0.1%+35000
Ivory Coast

Group E
63.0%26.1%8.6%2.3%0.3%0.1%+28000
Turkiye

Group D
71.0%27.0%10.0%4.5%1.2%0.4%+9000
Egypt

Group G
63.6%20.8%6.7%1.6%0.2%—+30000
Jordan

Group J
31.4%9.8%2.8%0.8%0.1%—+80000
DR Congo

Group K
27.5%8.9%2.6%0.7%0.1%—+80000
Bosnia & Herz.

Group B
49.3%13.2%3.1%0.6%——+80000
Tunisia

Group F
27.2%7.3%1.8%0.4%——+80000
Ghana

Group L
8.9%1.6%0.3%———+80000
New Zealand

Group G
24.5%5.2%1.0%0.1%——+80000
Iraq

Group I
15.1%4.4%1.2%0.3%——+80000
Saudi Arabia

Group H
19.0%4.6%0.9%0.2%——+80000
Cape Verde

Group H
21.2%5.5%1.2%0.2%——+80000
South Africa

Group A
17.6%3.3%0.5%0.1%——+80000
Haiti

Group C
13.7%3.4%0.6%0.1%——+80000
Curacao

Group E
6.3%1.0%0.1%———+80000
Qatar

Group B
11.4%1.4%0.2%———+80000

Probability:

60%+

25-59%

8-24%

3-7%

<3%

Elo data from eloratings.net. Probabilities based on 100,000 simulations. Odds are approximate – check BUSR for live World Cup lines.

 

World Cup Predictions and Key Betting Angles

Spain at 29.3% win probability priced at +450 implies 18.2% – the model says they are underpriced. The biggest edge from the table is the gap between Spain and everyone else in the early rounds: 99.8% to advance from the group stage, 82.5% through the Round of 32. No other nation is above 75% at that stage.
Argentina at 17.4% win probability, priced at +850 (10.5% implied), is the clearest value in the market. The defending champion on the opposite bracket from Spain. Core squad intact. At +850, you are getting nearly double the value the Elo model suggests.
France at 9.7% Elo probability priced at +490 (16.9% implied) is the only top-three nation where the market is overvaluing them relative to the model. The Elo does not account for Mbappe-led upside in individual knockout matches, but at those odds, France are not a value.
The three host nations carry home crowd advantages that the Elo model cannot fully capture. USA at only 47.4% to advance from the group stage is the most underrated figure in the table. Playing in front of full stadiums in LA, NY, and Dallas against Paraguay in their opener is a structural advantage worth more than the model reflects. At +6500, you only need to be right once.
Best Bets from This Table Argentina at +850. 17.4% Elo win probability against 10.5% implied odds. Defending champion. Opposite bracket from Spain. Best value on the full board. The USA group stage advance. 47.4% Elo probability as host nation with home crowd – the model undervalues the crowd factor. Back them to advance before June 12.
Full 2026 World Cup Odds at BUSR → · World Cup Betting Guide → · World Cup Betting Hub →

FAQ’s: World Cup Betting Predictions

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ⌄

Spain is the heavy favorite at +450 with a 29.3% Elo probability of winning. Argentina is second with 17.4% at +850 and France is third at 9.7% priced at +490.

What is the Elo system used in this predictor? ⌄

The Elo system assigns each team a numerical score that rises when they win and falls when they lose. Beating a stronger team earns more points. Data comes from eloratings.net. Academic studies consistently show Elo outperforms FIFA rankings as a tournament predictor.

How likely is the USA to advance from the group stage? ⌄

The Elo model gives the USA a 47.4% probability of advancing from Group D. As a host nation playing in front of home crowds in Los Angeles, New York, and Dallas, their actual probability is likely higher than the model suggests.

Up to $3,000 Welcome Bonus
on Your First 3 Deposits

300% Sports Welcome Bonus

Join the BUSR Experience. Stream LIVE all major sports leagues, enjoy live in-game moments with live betting, exclusive team props, and season futures. You control your winnings with our new Early Cash-Out option, no need to wait for game endings. Enjoy 24-hour payouts, dive into over 1,000 casino games, and access to exclusive lines and boosted odds.